Alameda County Fair Horse Racing Picks
Saturday, June 22
First race (6 furlongs, maiden, 1:45 p.m.
Beau Brume (D Wayne Baker, Epifanio Garcia, 12/1) has three starts and has yet to hit the board. It appears each start he has gotten better but there is one big concern in that he has shown speed in the last two starts but has weakened in both. Bertacchi (Isidro Tamayo, Hugo Herrera, 8/5) started in a straight maiden race and fifth in an eight-horse field. Dropped to open company and was third after setting the pace. Drops again here and should figure to be a pace factor. Top Wolf (Marcia Stortz, Cristobal Herrera, 10/1) was on the shelf for 15 months, came back and was a badly beaten 12th back in April. Came back a month later and finished fourth after pushing the pace. Now in the third after the break, this could be the spot to take the next step. Triangle (Andy Mathis, Alejandro Gomez, 5/2 ) has two starts in straight maiden competition and did nothing, getting beat by 27-lengths in last start. Now takes a monster drop and had a good work over the track. He’s True Blue (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 15/1) is making his debut for a barn that is 0-for-18 with first time starters. The works have been average at best. Conejo Malo (Jesus Ramos, Adrian Castellanos, 7/2) has hit the board twice in seven starts. Puts the blinkers on today as he continues to search for the best spot. Has been as high as $25,000 claimer down to $8,000 and has to find a win. Updraft (Jorge Bautista, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 8/1) is 0-for-23 on the win end and has only two thirds to show for the effort. Had to endorse in any way.
My play: Bertacchi seems like the logical choice here and he definitely improved in the last start, and he showed speed while doing it since that should be a factor today. 2-1-4.
Second race (One mile-70 yards, allowance, 2:15 p.m.)
Adios Nicanor (Jose Bautista, Catalino Martinez, 10-1 ) has been solid this year, hitting the board in 3-of-5 starts this year. The win came three back in a straight maiden race. Next up as a third in an allowance race, followed by a sixth, beaten 8-lengths. Has not shown any speed and I think the track will play to speed today. Was fifth here two years ago. Rollin Dice (Blaine Wright, Assael Espinoza, 7/5) in two starts, the horse has crossed the line second both times. Two back in the maiden race he was moved to first when the winner was disqualified. The next start was at this level, and he ran just off before finishing second. Has the potential to sit close. Keep Movin’ On (Steve Specht, Frank Alvardo, 8/1) is a runner that has been down at Santa Anita for the last three starts in the Eric Kruljac barn. He did nothing big down there, finishing ninth in his last start, the $127,000 Snow Chief on the turf. Comes back to the Steve Specht barn where he has had some success against similar. This move has worked for the barn already this meet, and he has enough speed to stay close to the lead and should be a threat here. Touch of Zen (Steven Myadi, Luis Manuel Jimenez Abruto, 7/2) is coming off a claiming win at Golden Gate Fields. The barn opts to protect the horse here, but I am concerned with the lack of speed in his nine starts. Western Cape (Quintin Miller, Cristobal Herrera, 9/2) is 0-for-6 this year, with his best finish a fourth back in mid-March. In the last four starts he has not been better than 24/1. Right Hand Ryder (Samuel Calvario, Adrian Castellanos, 4/1) has a great shot here as the lone speed in the field. He has a good shot to get out and get an easy lead. Two of the last four starts have seen him wire the field and if no one pressures him early, it can easily happen here again.
My play: Lone speed on a day where the track should be speed favoring is an equation for success. 6-2-4.
Third race (5-1/2 furlongs, claiming, 2:45 p.m.)
Bold Encounter (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 5/2) has shown in three of his seven starts, which will be crucial here. Rail draw a concern as it was not the best spot through the first week of racing. Has hit the board in four of the seven spots but not sold with the rail. Drive By (Felix Rodan, Alfredo Bautista, 7/2) is coming off a third where two of the horses that beat him are entered here. He has shown consistent early speed so he good be a pace factor here. Mr. Big Bucks (Reid France, Alexander Chavez, 10/1) disappointed here opening weekend now wheels right back and cuts the tag in half. The blinkers come off and I think he will need to sit closer to the lead. Good Lovin (Steve Sherman, Assael Espinoza, 3/1) has shown good early speed in all seven career starts. The races have resulted in a win, two seconds, and a third. Facing much better this year there has only been one third in four starts. Cuts the tag in half from last start and this one has major player written all over him. Hot Cake (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 8/1) has been on the lead at the second call of his last six starts. The big concern is that in five of those races he weakened. Two back, he crushed a maiden field to win, then came back, showed the early speed then faded to sixth. Cuts the price here and, with a decent work over the track will look to be a factor here. Drum Bunny (Samuel Calvario, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 4/1) prefers to sit off the pace and close. He should get an honest pace here but the last three he showed no interest in running down the speed. Uncle Juan (Jesus Ramos, Santos Rivera, 12/1) comes up from Los Alamitos and has shown speed in all three starts. Broke down south and now face winners for the first time. Had a good work for this.
My play: There are a couple that going to be winging it out front in Good Lovin and Hot Cake. Good Lovin has been able to hold the speed better than the other, and on a speed favoring track, that’s enough. 4-5-3.
Fourth race (5 furlongs, straight maiden, 3:15 p.m.)
Coracoracora (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 15/1) has been working regularly for the debut here for a barn that hits at an impressive 27 percent with first-time starters. As mentioned earlier, the rail draw is a concern so if nothing has changed since opening weekend, might be a pass. Chatty Leroybrown (Sergio Perez, William Antongeorgi, 9/1) in two starts at Santa Anita badly beaten in each. Ships up to a much easier spot but my concern is that no speed has been shown. Beachley (Andy Mathis, Irving Orozco, 5/1) is another first-time starter but this one comes from a barn that is 0-for-41 on debuts. Going to have to see one. Knightwithlouis (Doug O’Neill, Frank Alvardo, 5/2) greatly improved from his debut by running second after slow start. Connections scream for this one to be a contender. Surf Star (Daniel Franko, Epifanio Garcia, 5/1) has not finished well in either of his two starts. Showed some interest early in second start but that was gone by the time they turned for home. Recycleyourheart (Andy Mathis, Santos Rivera, 6/1) another debut starter from this barn that has yet to win in 41 debuts this year. Will watch this one as well. Runnin On Promises (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza, 6/1) debuted on the dirt at Santa Anita and was a respectable third. Switched to the turf for second start and was last by 20 lengths. Comes north for a barn that has had success with this move. Had a good work over the track. Going Great Guns (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Cristobal Herrera, 8/1) makes her debut for a barn that has at least won a debut. Had a work over the track but it appears to be more of a maintenance work.
My play: I have seen this move work a number of times over the years. Jeff Bonde takes one of his horses that have been unimpressive in Southern California, comes to the Fair circuit and steals a race. Runnin On Promises for the win. 7-4-1.
Fifth race (One mile-70 yards, optional claiming, 3:45 p.m.)
Shanghai Mist (Faith Taylor, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 4/1) has a solid year going with a win and three places in six starts. Will draw a line through the turf start in last and look at last four before that when she was hitting the board regularly. Overall, in 39 career starts, has hit the board 22 times. A professional. Turiaf (Isidro Tamayo, William Antongeorgi, 5/1) is another hard worker hitting the board in four of six starts this year. Coming off a pair of turf races for a barn that hits at 23 percent with the move. Has shown speed at times and gets the blinkers on today. Naughty Nadine (Manny Badilla, Irving Irozco, 8/5) bit off way more than she wanted in the last, a $50,000 optional claimer at Santa Anita. She finished 10th, beating one horse and losing by 11 lengths. Now cuts the tag in half, ships north, and heads to the dirt. Was a badly beaten eighth last year here in a stake. Kiki Krazy (Leobardo Rivera, Santos Rivera, 10/1) had a two-race win streak snapped in her last start when she tried climbing the ladder. Still showed speed but then got overwhelmed. Two wins before that came on or near the lead, a style that should play well today. Work to Live (Steve Sherman, Alexander Chavez, 3/1) opts to sit right off the pace then make a late run. Was beaten twice by Naughty Nadine in the last four starts. Ran third here last year against better. Did get a win in last drawing off in the lane. Smiling Lady (Andy Mathis, Assael Espinoza, 5/1) has speed, speed, and more speed. Will not get cheated today. Last start was the first since July of last year where she set the pace then faded to fourth in the $175,000 Fleet Treat Stakes at Del Mar. Absolutely busted out of the gate by six lengths in return but then got tired. Every right to be better here.
My play: Smiling Lady has the sire Smiling Tiger and shows a lot of the same characteristics as pops. Was running very well against much better last year and got the return out of the way. I see big things here. 6-5-4
Sixth race (6 furlongs, claiming, 4:15 p.m.)
Trinidad (Roger Hansen, Frank Alvarado, 5/1) has been no better than third in the last 12 starts. Comes from off the pace, which won’t be the best plan for today. Tesoro (O J Jauregui, Luis Manuel Jimenez, 8/1) has been right there for the last two races, winning one and finishing second in the other. Can sit close to the lead, which would be big here. Murphys Tiger (Tim McCanna, Assael Espinoza, 7/2) came back from five months off and ran a strong third in the return. Very strong work over the track since the comeback. Has enough speed to stay in touch and should be a player here. Hit the board on all three starts last year with a pair of wins and a second. Idaho Once (Victor Trujillo, Irving Orozco, 5/2) ran the last two at Santa Anita and had mixed results. Was second two back on the turf, then went to the main track, stumbled early and never recovered, finishing last by 24 lengths. Stay out of trouble and this one is a player here. Love Candy (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 6/1) has three places and a show in six starts this year. An even fifth last start when he cut back to a sprint after four route races. Takes a cut here and could find the spot to the liking. Yes He Can (Leobardo Rivera, Santos Rivera, 7/2) has been on the shelf since winning April 13. With three wins in five starts the horse is certainly a threat here. Looks to have good tactical speed. Driver’s Ed (Gary Greiner, William Antongeorgi, 10/1) is taking a pretty big leap up here after a successful campaign this year with three wins and three seconds in seven starts. Has a load of speed and gets a very good speed jockey. Once again, a big step up but a ton of speed in the resume.
My play: There are options here. I am going Murphys Tiger here for the win. I think there is enough speed to ensure a fast pace and that should set up nicely for someone that can sit close to the pace before flying home.
Seventh race (5-1/2 furlongs, straight maiden, 4:45 p.m.)
Isabel Ludlow (Steven Myadi, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 7/2) has yet to get a win 12 career starts but has hit the board in nine of the 12 starts. This year she has hit the board in three of five starts and a was a beaten favorite in the last start in mid-May on the turf at GGF. Has a second and a third in two dirt starts. The horse appears to have good tactical speed and does have a work over the track. Clare’s Baby (Marcia Stortz, Frank Alvarado, 5/1) has a lot of speed but just one second and one third in five career starts. Coming off a turf start where had the lead at the halfway mark before finishing third. Track should be favoring speed today so has a shot here. Girl On Holiday (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza, 20/1) makes her debut for a barn that is okay with the move. Has a decent work tab – including one over the track – and I expect to see speed if she breaks clean. Ann Loves Mark (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Cristobal Herrera, 4/1) has three seconds in four starts this year, has speed and is coming off a pair of turf races. I don’t think she needs the lead but doesn’t have it she won’t be far back. Ara (Gloria Haley, Alexander Chavez, 15/1) had her debut on June 8 and was beaten 15-lengths. Should improve this start but I am going to want to see one in the dirt. Clarina (Gloria Haley, Hugo Herrera, 6/1) has looked strong at times this year with a pair of places and a show in four starts. Has shown speed and could find this a nice spot. Lights of London (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Alejandro Gomez, 10/1) got slow in debut and never recovered, finishing fifth, beaten eight lengths. Parthena (Victor Trujillo, Epifanio Garcia, 12/1) had one start and ran third, fading a bit at the end to finish 10-lengths back. The good early speed could play a role here. Perkins (Andy Mathis, William Antongeorgi, 3/1) has been off since April of last year after showing promise. The barn does hit at 36 percent coming off this length of break and there have been some good works, including one over the track here June 16. Showed good speed in both starts last year and with the track like it should today, could be a handful off the break. Another runner that was sired by Smiling Tiger.]
My play: I usually shy away from a horse coming off a break but something draws me to Perkins. Always a fan of the barn he does them bring them ready off the break. Sentimentally would love to see Clare’s Baby get it done and if she does, will be an emotional winners’ circle.
Eighth race (1-1/16 mile, She’s A Tiger Stakes, 5:15 p.m.)
Here are the horses entered Saturday for the She’s A Tiger stakes in post-position order.
Liberal Lady (Leonard Powell, Assael Espinoza, 7/5) is the lone Southern California shipper. She has one win in three starts this year and that came back in February in her first race of the year. Following that front running win she jumped up to the Grade II Santa Maria at Santa Anita where was eased and finished 41 lengths off the winner. After a 5-week break she came back on the turf at Santa Anita in an optional claimer and was fifth, beaten five lengths on June 9. Does like to be on or near the lead.
Delusively (Jose Bautista, Catalino Martinez, 6/1) has been at Turf Paradise in Arizona for the last three races under the care of trainer Robert Baze, shipping down from Golden Gate Fields. She was third two back in a stake, flattening out in the lane. Next up was a $25,000 optional claimer where she gave way and finished fifth. Now back in the Jose Bautista barn where she thrived on the artificial track at GGF, this spot seems a tad ambitious. Runs from off the pace.
Ascendancy (O J Jauregui, Alexander Chavez, 4/1) is the defending champion of this race where she drew away in the lane and won by over three-lengths. She has seen nothing but stakes races since leaving Pleasanton last summer. She won the Luther Burbank last August in Santa Rosa on the turf where she continued to run. Was third in Grade III Wilshire at Santa Anita, sixth in the Grade II Distaff Turf Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard, then fifth in a Grade III Gallorette at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard. Now comes back to the dirt at Pleasanton to defend her title. She has two blistering works over the track in the last two weeks. Should be the one to beat. Like to close and was 12-back at one point in this race last year. Will not be anywhere near 4/1 when they go to post.
Princesa Del Tigre (Tim McCanna, Luis Manuel Jimenez Abruto, 9/5) has hit the board in all four starts this year, with two wins and two seconds. This will be the first stakes start for the horse, but she has had two dirt starts. She was third here last year in an optional claimer. The last two starts have been seconds in $62,000 optional claimers. Looks to be part of the pace factor here.
Bold Daughter (Roger Hansen, Alejandro Gomez, 10/1) has lone stakes start, finishing seventh in the Miss America at Golden Gate in December. Recently has been running in optional claimers at Golden Gate, with the last being a fourth on the turf May 18. I think this moment will be too big for the horse.
My play: This race starts and ends with the defending champ – Ascendancy. The horse obviously as evidence be the win last year, then the two bullet works over the track has been running in stakes races across the country. The rail horse is the lone runner with anywhere near as big of a stake race on her resume. Lone concern is how much travel there has been this year. Will be a major upset if Ascendancy gets beat. 3-4-1.
Ninth race (1-1/16 mile, claiming, 5:45 p.m.)
Tribal Nation (Andy Mathis, Assael Espinoza, 5/1) loves to run early and two back wired the field. After the win he took a jump up, still set the pace, then faded after checking. Now back to a lower level on a track that should be speed favoring. Needs to overcome rail draw. Contrary Chieftain (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 6/1) has hit the board three of seven starts this year. Has being seeing better and if he can sit near the lead should be solid. Stone’s River (Isidro Tamayo, William Antongeorgi, 12/1) decided to go to the turf last start and flopped, finishing last by 11-lengths. Has been okay on the dirt, hitting the board in four of 11 starts. Has good early speed but has been weakening in the last four. Mr. T’s Thirsty (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 9/2) has had a good year against similar, hitting the board in four of five starts. Easily has the best recent Beyer marks. Two straight losses to Law Abiding who has won three straight and thankfully is not in this field. Been off since May 5 so should be ready to go. Big Spin (Tim McCanna, Hugo Herrera, 6/1) has been there 3-of-4 this year, with the lone win coming two back. Likes to run from behind so will need pace to run at. Big Flame (Victor Trujillo, Santos Rivera, 9/2) has had a vacation off since April of last year. Had an okay year against better last year. There’s been an consistent and solid work tab for the return for the runner that prefers to run from off the pace. Mohawk King (Michael Lenzini, Cristobal Herrera, 8/1) has had four starts this year and has yet to be better than fifth. It appears the horse has seen better days. Had a start over the Pleasanton track two years ago and set the pace early before fading. Mother’s Prayer (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 7/2) could be well placed here. Came off a pedestrian fourth on the turf in his last, gets back to the Pleasanton dirt where he has a past third. Looks to have strong tactical speed and the connections are hitting at 24 percent this year.
My play: Mr. T’s Thirsty looks the one to meet in my mind. There is enough speed to give him a pace to run at here with that punishing kick. I pity the fool that goes against him. 4-8-5.