While I think the Kentucky Derby is a wide-open race this year, as far as Friday’s Kentucky Oaks is concerned, it’s all about one horse with everyone else fighting for second.
The unbeaten Good Cheer, the overwhelming morning-line favorite, should be able to get the job done against her 13 rivals is the race that is the 11th on the Churchill card and is set for a 2:51 p.m. PDT post.
The field in post-position order.
- Early On (Saffie Joseph trainer, Edgar Zayas, 30/1) could be one to push the pace as she did in the Gazelle at Aqueduct on April 5. That day she ran second, just missing the win by a nose. Has only one win in six career starts and that came three back in a straight maiden start at Gulfstream on February 5. That day she ran away with the race, winning by over five lengths. After that she was second in the Virginia Oaks, falling by a half-length.
- Simply Joking (Whitworth Beckman, Florent Geroux, 10/1) is hard to not like somewhat. Has three starts, with two wins and a second, with all three races being a stake. He broke back in December in a stake at the Fair Grounds, then came back in January with a win in the Silverbulletday, in the slop at the Fair Grounds. She went to Oaklawn on March 28 and was second in the Fantasy to Quietside. In the second and third start she was on or near the lead and turned in a big move in the morning on April 19 over the Churchill surface.
- Fondly (Graham Motion, Irad Ortiz, 20/1) has two starts and won both, including the Virginia Oaks at Colonel Downs on March 15. Not getting perhaps as much love as deserved because that is not considered a top-tier prep yet. Close in both wins so far, not sitting far off the pace in either. Works have been mediocre, but she does pick up one of the top pilots in the business. Could be a nice value play to add to your ticket.
- Drexel Hill (Whitworth Beckman, Ben Curtis, 30/1) has picked up a straight maiden, and a nice, hard-closing win in a $200,000 stake win at Aqueduct on March 1, for her two wins in seven starts. Has had some nice races but this group is just too much.
- Quickick (Thomas Amoss, Umberto Rispoli, 30/1) has struggled in some of the prep races and will face a lot tougher here. Fourth in the Fair Ground Oaks and fifth in the Honeybee are not good runs to prep for this one.
- Ballerina d’Oro (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 10/1) may be a good value play for your ticket as she has run in four straight graded stake races and has been in the money in the last three. Her last start was a win in the Grade III Gazelle at Aqueduct on April 5. She will come from off the pace and usually opts to sit near the back of field depending on the field size. Will be interesting to see that strategy here, as sitting 12-14 leaves a lot of horses to go by late.
- La Cara (George Weaver, Manny Franco, 6/1) is a contender here with two wins in three starts this year. Won the Suncoast at Tampa Bay, then was second in the Davona Dale, and in the most recent start was the winner of the Grade I Ashland at 9/1. The last three have seen her get out strong and fight for the lead – expect the same here. The concern is that there is other speed, and she could get caught in a duel.
- Five G (George Weaver, Manny Franco, 12/1) has won twice this year and ran second the other start. In her last start she wired the field as the favorite in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, winning by over two lengths. Before that she made the trip to Oaklawn for the Honeybee, finishing second by a length after setting the pace in the early going. And, in her first start of the year, she won by nine lengths in the Cash Run on Jan. 1 at Gulfstream. She will be part of what is shaping up as fast pace out front.
- Tenma (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 12-1) has been toying with the West Coast, winning both starts this year, and winning them easily. In the Las Virgenes she took the lead at the midway point and drew off to win by over six. After some time off, she came back in the Santa Anita Oaks, she took the lead midway again and this time won by almost three lengths. Could get the perfect pace to chase here as they should be flying early. Take a long look here, especially as part of your vertical plays.
- Take Charge Milady (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 12-1) had a disastrous race two back in the Honeybee where she found trouble throughout and finished 10th, beaten 32 lengths. Came back, threw a bullet-work on the board, and was second in the Ashland on April 7 at Keeneland. Now has thrown another bullet work in for this one. She likes to come from off the pace and with the front-end speed entered here, might be another to look at for a price.
- Good Cheer (Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 6/5) is the morning-line favorite and deservedly so, coming into the Oaks with a 6-fo-6 career record. And, she has been the heavy favorite in all six races. In her starts this year, I have become a huge fan. In the Rachel Alexander she won by over six-lengths and was effortless in doing so. In the Fair Ground Oaks she won by three-plus lengths and once again, it looked like she was running easily. Need more endorsement? Okay – she comes from off the pace and it sure looks she will get exactly the ideal trip. This is the one that will be flying down the lane at the end.
- Anna’s Promise (Carlos David, Junior Alvarado, 30/1) has a great record this year, winning twice and running second one time. Then again, the wins came against lesser fields, with both coming in optional claimers. Three back she took a $50,000 maiden optional claimer and was claimed. The new connections jumped her to a $70,000 optional and she won again. At that point, they went for the Grade II Gulfstream Oaks, and she finished second, back two lengths. Will be yet another pushing the pace.
- Bless the Broken (William Walden, John Velazquez, 30/1) was second in the Silverbulletday, beaten by Simply Joking, then third in the Rachel Alexander, seven lengths back of Good Cheer. Dropped down to the $280,000 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park on March 22 and scored a 2-plus length win. Likes to come from off the pace and just seems a notch below the good runners here.
- Quietside (John Ortiz, Jose Ortiz, 8/1) took both the Oaklawn preps – the Honeybee and the Fantasy – both by sitting right off the pace and then pouncing in the lane. Seven career starts and she has never been off the board, with all those Grade I and Grade II races. Sneaky good runner here and one that may get first call at getting the speed horses.
Who wins?
I have been a huge fan of Good Cheer and that is not going to change now.
Looking at how the race will play out seems to fit perfectly for what she wants. There is one concern and it’s a legit one at that. She has never been a field bigger than eight and she does have the tendency to break towards the back part of the field. Breaking fifth in a field of seven, or fourth in a field of six is a lot different than 12th in a field of 14. That is many more horses to pass as you go around the track and there is no doubt that some will get in her way. I am counting on Brad Cox and Louis Saez adjusting with the increase in field size and getting her out a little quicker, then settling into her race.
There could be as many as five horses vying for the lead, which also means at least three of them slowing late, dropping back dangerously in the field.
I think Simply Joking, La Cara, Five G, and Quietside have the best tools to sustain a solid pace out front. I like the speed of La Cara, Five G, and Quietside to keep them in contention until the lane, where Good Cheer will be right with Tenma and right in front of Take Charge Milady.
In the end, Good Cheer gets the win, with a flurry of horses – some charging and some fading – will be fighting to get into the payoffs.
My wagers: Good Cheer over La Cara, Five G, Tenma, Take Charge Milady, and Quietside (11/7-8-9-10-14) in both the exacta and trifecta. As a frame of reference, the $1 exacta would be $5, and the $1 trifecta would be $20. In addition, place a win bet – the amount that is still comfortable for you.