Alameda County Fair Horse Racing Picks
Sunday, July 7
First race (5-1/2 furlongs, straight maiden, 1:45 p.m.)
Typhoon Tommy (Felix Rodan, Adrian Castellanos, 8/1) making its debut for a strong ownership group that has had success here. Okay works over track. Thirsty Vision (Jesus Ramos, Santos Rivera, 5/2) ran a decent debut over the track on June 24, finishing third. Jeffrey On the Run (Marcia Stortz, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 3/1) got passed late by the horse to his inside in last. Barn is 0-16 in second time starters. Set Price (Andy Mathis, Irving Orozco, 4/1) barn finally got a first-time win this week and that may open the floodgates as the barn is one of the best. Work times have been nothing special but have been consistent. Chatty Leroybrown (Sergio Perez, Alexander Chavez, 6/1) had a pair of starts at Santa Anita and did nothing. Shipped north looking for a softer spot and did nothing here either. Mala (Steve Sherman, William Antongeorgi, 8/5) certainly looks the best of this questionable group. Had one and was fourth but did show juice late. Every reason to expect a better group here.
My play: Mala is the horse to beat. The connections are heating up – no pun intended! Interested to see how Typhoon Tommy debuts. 6-2-1
Second race (One Mile-70 yards, claiming. 2:15 p.m.)
Herecomegeorgieboy (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 7/2) broke maiden two back after shipping up north from Santa Anita. Tried winners here and got stuck on a rail draw when the rail was soup. Gets it again but the rail is live, and not a bad place to be. Precedent Luke (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 8/1) got hooked early and tired here the second weekend. Takes the blinkers off here and it will be interesting to see how he runs. Danz Till Ten (Terri Eaton, Alejandro Gomez, 10/1) tried similar here the second weekend and was beaten ninth, 15-lengths back. Ruler of Angels (Marcelino Trujillo, Cristobal Herrera, 9/2) tried to get engaged midway through a start here June 23 but weakened and was sixth of 10 at the end. Chelsiesdanziglite (Marcia Stortz, William Antongeorgi, 9/5) seemed in a good spot at the top of the lane in his start here on June 23, but checked and that ended the threat. Takes the blinkers off and should run better here. Reef City (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza, 5/2) broke maiden here opening weekend and now takes on winners for the first time. Has good speed and will be interesting to see how he engages with the horse to his inside.
My play: I am going all in Chelsiesdanziglite as the horse had a great spot heading for home before checking. I expect a much better trip here and a win. 5-6-1
Third race (1-1/6 miles, allowance, 2:45 p.m.)
Candy on Top (Bill McLean, William Antongeorgi, 10/1) ran here at the level on opening weekend and tired in the lane and was last, beaten 19 lengths. Had a bullet work over the track since so expect more. Gentle Julia (Marcia Storz, Epifanio Garcia, 8/1) ran second here June 30 in an open claimer and now the connections protect the horse. Did show speed last start for the last time in a while. Your Royal Flyness (Faith Taylor, Anne Sanguinettia, 6/1) ran a real nice second at 16/1 to a horse that is entered here. Sat patiently a made a late move. Lady Good Trouble (Samuel Calvario, Santos Rivera, 3/1) set the pace through the first half of a race here opening weekend where you did not want to be on the front end. Faded but did hold on to third so there should be signs of optimism here. Smile and Profile (Tim McCanna, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 2/1) ran an even second here at this level opening weekend. The horse has show speed and that’s big at this point. Super Ellie (Marcia Stortz, Frank Alvarado, 5/2) sat just off the pace here opening weekend, then took control and flew home for the win. Not a big jump here but the barn does protect the horse. Retains one of the best pilots.
My play: That the connections opted to protect Super Ellie speaks volumes. This could be a nice runner throughout the summer. 6-5-3.
Fourth race (1-1/16 miles, allowance, 3:15 p.m.)
Grogu (Matthew Troy, Irving Orozco, 5/2) is coming off two turf starts, one in a $100,000 optional claimer at Santa Anita. Has no dirt starts so that is always a concern. Was fifth in the El Camino Real back in February, and the last start was a second by a nose in a $50,000 optional claimer at GGF. Right Hand Ryder (Samuel Calvario, Adrian Castellanos, 10/1) has hit the board four of five starts this year and was second here in the same level on the second weekend. Not sure where the 10/1 morning level comes here but you won’t get that here. Acero (Tim Bellasis, Frank Alvarado, 5/1) last three starts were on the turf at GGF. The last of which was a second and prompted the connections to protect the horse here. Comes from off the pace. Roaring Tiger (OJ Jauregui, William Antongeorgi, 3/1) has hit the board in five straight starts going back to last year. Has shown the ability to sit right off the pace or to stalk it. Has hit the board in two of the five starts at Pleasanton. Deo (Gloria Haley, Cristobal Herrera, 9/2) is coming off three turf starts at Golden Gate Fields. Has never started on the dirt. Adios Nicanor (Jose Bausista, Catalino Martinez, 12/1) was third here at the same level on June 22. Comes from off the pace but has been beaten two straight by another entered here. Uncle Walt (Victor Trujillo, Santos Rivera, 6/1) has been off since September of last year but encouraged they chose to protect the horse. Has hit the board in one in three starts over the dirt.
My play: I think Right Hand Ryder is the horse to beat here and you will get no where near to the 10/1 morning line. He has speed and has run well over the track. 2-4-1.
Fifth race (1-1/16 miles, allowance, 3:45 p.m.)
Danzing Rebel (Cliff Delima, William Antongeorgi, 8/1) chased the speed all the way around the track opening weekend and finished second. Comes back with the crew intact. Has hit the board in five of six starts this year. Druidic (D Wayne Baker, Epifanio Garcia, 5/1) is coming off two turf efforts at GGF, finishing second, then fifth. Did show speed in last two. Cousin Richie (Sergio Ledezma, Frank Alvarado, 9/5) is coming off a hard closing win over the turf, drawing off in the lane. Has not shown a lot of speed so might need to stick a bit closer to the lead. Cardiff Crack (Bill McLean, Alexander Chavez, 3/1) has shown the ability to bring front end speed. In the last he finished third coming from off the pace. Has been more of a turf runner but will mix up on the dirt as well. Enos Slaughter (Marcelino Trujillo, Cristobal Herrera, 8/1) for the most part seems to be running where he breaks. Opening week here he broke third and finished third. That was his first start of the year so there is every reason to expect improvement here. Meeking (Bill McLean, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 10/1) has always shown speed but with the exception of the maiden score four back, it has not held. He was off like a rocket here opening weekend but ended up fourth, 12 lengths back. That was the first start in two months so let’s see how that plays out. Que Sera Sir Ralph (Andy Mathis, Adrian Castellanos, 6/1) has had the lead at the first point of call in the last five starts. Last year he had five wins in 16 starts. This year the early speed is still there but the staying power has not as he has a fifth, then a seventh in the two starts this year. Now is coming off almost a two-month break and has a series of works over the track for the return. Has a win over the surface.
My play: Danzing Rebel seems to have a great shot here, already running a good one over the track this year. Cousin Richie has a win over the track last year. Enos Slaughter has a third over the track this year. 1-3-5
Sixth race (5-1/2 furlongs, Nevin Stake, 4:15 p.m.)
1) Riverside Rose (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Alejandro Gomez, 15/1): Has one start, a straight maiden race on June 8 at GGF and made the debut a winner, coming from off the pace, and having plenty left in the tank crossing the finish line. A couple of works over the track that looked more like maintenance works.
2) Happy Sue (OJ Jauregui, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 12/1): Makes his debut today and should draw plenty of interest as the owners spent $100,000 to buy the horse. Has a series of good works, going all the way back to May 26. The barn is successful in stake races, hitting at 19 percent.
3) Coracoracora (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 9/2): Won her debut right here on June 22, taking control and drawing away from the field at 10/1. The barn hits at 13 percent with 2-year-olds and hits 19 percent for coming off a win.
4) Sensational ZZ (Manuel Badilla, Assael Espinoza, 6/1): Broke maiden in her debut May 10 at GGF as the overwhelming favorite. The work tabs for this have been consistent but nothing special. Broke well in the debut, then pulled away in the 4.5-furlong race over the synthetic.
5) R Heisman (Peter Miller, Juan Hernandez, 5/2): One of the two shippers and justifiable the morning line favorite. The horse cost $70,000 and debuted May 3 and ½ ran second, beaten by five lengths at Santa Anita in a race where he had trouble early. Quickly after the race these was a new barn and new rider. On May 31 he ran again, this time getting the job done by over four lengths at 1/5 odds. Now comes north and brings with jockey Hernandez, a former member of the NorCal jockey colony.
6) Far Over Loaded (Felix Rondan, Cristobal Herrera, 6/1): Is still a maiden as he has run second twice in two starts, both at GGF on the synthetic. Showed speed in both starts and although there has been some local steam, I think this is a reach.
7) Timty (Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado, 7/1): Is pronounced Tim-Tye and is the other SoCal shipper and should be better than 7/1 for the morning. Did win at first asking and switched barns. Off a step slow but quickly recovered and opened up before having hang on to win by a nose.
8) Drop Um (Felix Rodan, Adrian Castellanos, 8/1): Also won his debut, this one on May 26 at GGF. Locked horns early, then drew off to win by five. Since then, has three works over the track, all three were average efforts.
My play: It’s easy to take R Heisman and run away with that horse. The brutal trip he had in debut only to finish second was arguably as impressive as the win the next start. The horse I really need to look at and watch the tote is the filly Happy Sue. The connections paid $100,000 for the horse, by for the most spent on any horse in here, even $30,000 more than they paid for R Heisman. I also think Timty deserves a good look as well. 5-2-7.
Seventh race (One mile, 70-yards, optional claimer, 4:45 p.m.)
Love Candy (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 6/1) ran here June 22 and finished sixth, beaten seven lengths. The last four have not been fruitful races and you would have to go five back to find a second-place finish. The last win came in October of 2023. Tesoro (OJ Jauregui, Assael Espinoza, 6/1) has won two of his last three starts, with the most recent coming June 22 over the track. He sat just off the lead and turned it on in the lane. Now goes from a sprint to a route, something the barn is hitting at 26 percent. Passarando (Steve Specht, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 9/2) already has some past class at the age of four. Last year he was fourth in the El Camino Real and fifth in the California Derby. In the last start he was eighth in the $102,000 Crystal Water on the turf at Santa Anita. Has hit the board in two of three starts on the dirt. American Farmer (Steve Sherman, Alexander Chavez, 9/5) won the last start June 7 at GGF and has three seconds to go with the win in seven starts this year. Always comes from off the pace but there does not appear to be front end speed here. Redline (Craig Dollase, Edwin Maldonado, 3/1) has been protected in the last three, now chooses to go in open company. Has hit the board twice in four starts this year and run at three different tracks in his last four starts. Lord Sheldon (Steve Sherman, William Antongeorgi, 4/1) has four wins, a place, and a show in seven starts this year. The last start was June 1, and he was fifth against similar. Has two dirt starts, running off the board in both. Has enough speed to stick close to the lead.
My play: Tesoro sure seems like a good choice, turning in three straight big efforts. Passarando has been in good company in his starts. Lord Sheldon looks the best of the two Steve Sherman entries. 2-3-6.
Eighth race (One mile-70 yards, Pleasanton Mile, 5:15 p.m.)
1) Mixto (Doug O’Neill, Antonio Fresu, 5/2): He has been a graded stakes running machine in the last five races, running and running well in a Grade I, three Grade II’s, and a Grade III. The lone win in 12 career starts was a straight maiden win but there are four shows, and a place to go with the win. He was second in the Grade II San Antonio, third in the Grade II San Pasquel, fifth in the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, third in the Grade II California, and a fifth in the Grade II Gold Cup. He’s had a break since May 27, with strong works set up a horse that has speed and will break from the rail on a speed favoring track.
2) Il Bellator (Jose Bautista, Alejandro Gomez, 5/1): Was the third-place horse in this race last year, going off at 5/2. Was fifth in the Grade III San Francisco Mile in April on the turf at GGF. Next up was a win in an $62,000 optional claimer at one mile, also at GGF. Only has three of 17 starts on the dirt, but after last year he showed he can take to the track in Pleasanton. The past class is huge and can be a threat in the lane.
3) Lammas (Manuel Badilla, Irving Orozco, 7/2): Has been off since April 27 and has only two dirt starts under his belt, neither of which did he hit the board. He won three of four starts this year at GGF, including the Grade III San Francisco Mile on the turf. He has absolutely lit up the mornings in Pleasanton, posting a bullet work for the best of 45 works on June 30. Will have a pace to run at and offers a legitimate closing threat.
4) Brazenly (Dan Azcarate, Erick Garcia, 20/1): He started the year running in $20,000 open claimers at Santa Anita and has moved up to as rich as $80,000 optional claimers. The past class is far lower than every other horse entered here, and he has not had a win in 21 two-turn starts.
5) Piroli (Michael McCarthy, Jeremy Laprida, 3/1): He ended 2023 running in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Grade I Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Was beaten badly in both, finishing 7th beaten 10 lengths at Del Mar, then eighth, beaten 33 lengths when he was eased at Santa Anita. After going to the shelf, he returned May 4 at Santa Anita and ran an even fourth in an $80,000 optional claimer. Now after two months off he ships north with a solid and strong series of works at Santa Anita.
6) Zues’ War (Tim McCanna, Assael Espinoza, 8/1): The horse hails from one of the top barns in the north. He has a win and a place in five starts this year, and is coming off a fourth in an optional claimer, finishing behind of horse entered here. Did venture south for the $101,000 Kona Gold at Santa Anita and did beat half the field in finishing fourth in a race won by The Chosen Vron. After a series of races where he came from off the pace, he showed speed last time.
7) Prince Abu Dhabi (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 6/1): Finished behind Zeus’ War in the Kona Gold but then got the better of things in the optional claimer in June at GGF. Also likes to come off the dirt and has a win and a third in three dirt starts. Back-to-back big works over the track on June 14 and June 21 before closing preparation out with a maintenance work.
8) Freeport Joe (Gloria Haley, Frank Alvarado, 12/1): Is a horse that raced April 27 in the San Francisco Mile, finishing seventh. In fact, he has finished behind Lammas in the last three starts, although two back he did finish second at 7/1. Now 7-years-old the horse has seen better days but does seem to have the ability to still put a big one together. Some solid works over the Pleasanton trap.
My play: I can see a scenario where Mixto gets an easy lead breaking from the rail and the rest of the field will have to play hell to catch him. I can also see a scenario where one or two other horses go with Mixto and perhaps a speed duel sets up a closer. So, if that happens, who benefits? Il Bellator, if ready and with those works sure looks like he is, can get that perfect stalking trip and have first run when they turn for home. Lammas is certainly capable of pulling off the win with the exact same trip. In fact, it will be interesting to see who gets the first run in the lane. Piroli is tough for me to figure out as I do not know what to expect tomorrow – speed or stalking. 1-3-2.
Ninth race (One mile-70 yards, claiming, 5:45 p.m.)
Kitten’s Kid (Marcelino Trujillo, Alejandro Gomez, 10/1) did not have much success here on June 22, finishing last, 17 lengths back. Encouraged the horse wheels back here but needs to find that early speed shown in the past. Tiz My Princess (Steve Sherman, Frank Alvarado, 8/5) finished first here June 21 as the horse surged late and drew off in the lane. Takes a big jump up but has seen this level before. Anisette (OJ Jauregui, Assael Espinoza, 9/2) won easily here June 29, now wheels back and doubles the tag. Bobbled at the start but then got an awesome trip from the jockey, taking control at the top of the lane, then drawing off. Shooting for third consecutive win. J and M Express (Jose Puentes, Adrian Castellanos, 3/1) is coming off two turf starts where he finished second, then third. Has not had a start on dirt but did have a sharp work over the track on June 29. Vulin (Gary Greiner, William Antongeorgi, 6/1) has been claimed the past three races and has hit the board in all three. Comes into this one off a second-place finish where she had the lead at the top of the lane but then got out finished. Poker Alice (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Cristobal Herrera, 4/1) has two wins in five starts this year but in the last two has been fourth, then fifth. Has no starts on dirt.
My play: Tiz My Princess is my choice here as the connections reunite after winning the last start. Not sure if they will get the pace to run at that would make them comfortable. Kitten’s Kid is the lone horse with certifiable front-end speed so may get an easy lead. 2-3-1.
Tenth race (1-1/16 miles, straight maiden, 6:15 p.m.)
Goodbye Kai (Jose Bautista, Catalino Martinez, 2/1) has four starts and has hit the board four times, with two seconds and two thirds, all in straight maiden company. Has been favored the last two and burned cash in both. Toppers Wager (OJ Jauregui, Assael Espinoza, 8/1) ships up from Southern California after going 0-for-11 with one second the last two years. Did have a bullet work over the track and a repeat of two back would probably win this. Booming Bernardo (Marcia Stortz, Epifanio Garcia, 10/1) was sixth here June 21, not really showing anything. That was the first start since January so there’s every reason to expect improvement. Takes the blinkers off here. Bravo Ragazzo (Blaine Wright, William Antongeorgi, 7/2) was on the turf at Santa Anita in the last start and finished seventh of 10 starters. Barn does hit at 22 percent with the turf to dirt move. Two back he showed good early speed. Goodbye Dal (Jose Bautista, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 5/1) is coming off a closing third place finish. There is no obvious front-end speed here which will hurt the closers. Delian League (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 6/1) barn brings the A team out here for the first start over dirt. Does have three nice moves in the morning over the track. Has not shown speed so expect a tactical trip here. Later Tamartater (Steve Specht, Epifanio Garcia, 4/1) has better morning line odds than the stablemate who looks the best of the two horses. Did finish second in his lone start, a hard-closing effort. Has put in three works over the track for a barn that hits at 33 percent in maiden second starts.
My play: Goodbye Kai would be the easy choice but is this horse willing to win races? True, no one has won one here, but he’s been right there four straight and not gotten it done. I am going with Toppers Wager on the ship up from Southern California. There were some okay starts against tougher than he will face here. 2-1-6.