By Dennis Miller
You can make a strong case that Travers Stakes day at Saratoga is the third or fourth best day of racing in the United States each year.
I will always have Kentucky Derby day as the best day of racing, as there is nothing like the Kentucky Day in raw excitement and the undercard is always top notch. Given the pageantry of the day, it’s as good as it gets.
Saturday of the Breeders’ Cup is the second-best day. Capped by the iconic Classic, the day is full of world championship races.
In my mind, Travers day is No. 3, but there are others that will counter with Friday of Breeders Cup weekend as a day of 2-year-old stakes races that highlight “future starts.”
This Saturday it is Travers day where we have five straight Grade I races, highlighted by the DraftKings Travers, where Thorpedo Anna – the top 3-year-old filly in the country – will take on the boys.
The Sword Dancer (1.5 miles, inner turf, 12:44 p.m.)
Silver Knott (Charles Appleby, Flavian Prat, 1/1) is one of two heavy favorites and both are trained by Appleby. This one has won all three starts this year with the last being the Grade II Bowling Green at Saratoga on July 28. It was a front running score of over two-lengths, and it came after two wins of stalking the pace, then pouncing in the lane.
Measured Time (Charles Appleby, William Buick, 7/5) is the other big favorite and is coming off a wire-to-wire score in his first start in the United States, winning the Grade I Manhattan at Saratoga on June 8. Starting in December of last year, he ran three races in the UAE at Meydan. He won the first two – both Grade II events, but struggled in the Grade I Dubai Turf, finishing fourth at the end of May. A short time later he was in the United States.
With two such heavily favored runners, this race screams out to find a value play. As of right now, it’s Soldier Rising (Christophe Clement, Jose Ortiz, 8/1) for me. He’s only won four of 22 career starts, and has one start this year where he ran second. And that was a two-length finish behind Silver Knott in the Bowling Green. In fact, he’s run second four straight times and 11 times in his career. A reach, perhaps but at way better value than either of the favorites.
Ballerina Handicap (7 furlongs, main track, fillies/mares 3-and-up, 1:20 p.m.)
A good field of eight will go to post in this sprint.
There is a heavy morning line favorite in Vahva (Cherie DeVaux, Irad Ortiz, 1/1). The daughter of Gun Runner has been on the shelf since June 22 after winning the Grade III Chicago at Churchill Downs. It was the second straight win and the fourth in five races.
Scylla (Bill Mott, Javier Castellano, 7/2) is your second choice and is coming off a second in the Grade I Clement Hirsch at Del Mar on August 3. Before then she had run off three wins, going back and forth between an off the pace run to a stalk the pace plan.
Society (Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 4/1) is another Gun Runner horse. She was third in the Chicago and before that, fourth in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint back in November. Always wants to be on the lead or right off so will be big pace factor here.
If you are interested in a value play, look at Positano Sunset (Ian Wilkes, Julien Leparoux, 15/1). The horse was second to Vahva in the Chicago at 17/1. In the two starts before she was fourth and sixth in six-furlong races. She was closing in both and looked like she needed more distance. The Chicago was 7-furlongs, and that extra distance got her up to second. Did beat Society in that race. Maybe worth a spot on exotics or a smaller win bet?
The Forego (7 furlongs, main track, 4-and-up, 1:55 p.m.)
This sprint for the boys also has a heavy favorite in Mullikin (Rodolphe Brisset, Flavian Prat, 8/5). He is coming off a win in a Grade II at Aqueduct where he stalked the pace then closed for the win. The last three starts he has always shown speed, either by setting the pace, or sitting right off.
Gun Pilot (Steve Asmussen, Christian Torres, 3/1) has won 3-of-5 starts this year, running second and third in the other two races. He was third in the True North on June 8 at Saratoga as the heavy favorite. Before that he won the Grade I Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard.
Cagliostro (Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 9/2) has two wins in three starts this year, with the last coming in a $279,000 stake at Churchill Downs. She doesn’t like the lead but wants to be close to the lead, giving her first run on the leaders.
If you want a live longshot, look at Baby Yoda (Bill Mott, Tyler Gaffalione, 8/1). Two back, she won the Grade II True North by a stunning 6-lengths at 9/1. She then came back a in the Grade I Vanderbilt, getting caught wide and finishing fourth by six lengths at 7/2. If she gets out clean and quick, she will be a factor.
The H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (7 furlongs, main track, 3-year-olds, 2:30 p.m.)
Features several runners that had Derby aspirations and one that started in the race. With the day thus far featuring heavy favorites, this is one with a wide-open field.
Book’em Danno (Derek Ryan, Javiar Castellano, 7/2) is the morning line favorite from his last three races. Back in February, he went to Saudia Arabia and was second in the Saudi Derby. After a break he won Grade I Woody Stephens at Saratoga and the Jersey Shore in Monmouth as the 1/5 favorite. He will come off the pace.
Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Flavian Prat, 9/2) is the lone horse than started in the Derby but he was 13th and was 22-lengths back. He ran second in the Pegasus at Monmouth, then won the Grade III Dwyer at Aqueduct on July 6. Big concern he has not run one turn since his debut in August of 2023 where he was fifth.
Prince of Monaco (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 4/1) was second in the Woody Stephens in his only start this year. Now off since June 8, Baffert’s barn hits at 25 percent coming of a break of this length.
Timberlake (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 5/1) was a solid third in the tough Haskell field and now returns to a sprint where he has one win and second in two starts at the distance.
The Travers (1-1/4 miles, main track, 3-year-olds, 3:19 p.m.)
This is the big one as the filly – Thorpedo Anna – takes on the boys at the Classic distance. This has the potential to be one of the best races of the year.
In post-position order, here is the field:
1) Thorpedo Anna (Kenny McPeak, Brian Hernandez, Jr., 3/1) has every reason to feel like she will be able to run with the boys. This year 4-for-4, all graded stakes, with the last three Grade I. The minimum length of victory was four lengths. A monster step, up but not impossible. Will be the popular choice!
2) Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Flavian Prat, 7/2) has been raked over the coals on various social media sites since the last race he won was the Blue Grass back on April 8 at Keeneland. But have his last three races been bad enough for criticism? He was second in the Kentucky Derby by a nose and if the race was 10 yards longer, he won it. Next was a third in the Belmont where he stumbled at the start and survived a bump to get within two lengths of the win. Then he was second in the Grade II Jim Dandy. You want to throw him out – fine, you’re making a mistake. Once again will be closing from the parking lot.
3) Unmatched Wisdom (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, 8-1) has won all three starts since the May 10 debut, but this is by far the toughest group he has faced. Will learn from today and will be one watch later.
4) Corporate Power (Shug McGaughey, Javier Castellano, 15/1) has legendary connections but is just a notch below these. Was second to Unmatched Wisdom in the last start and did win the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard.
5) Batten Down (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 20/1) was third behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy. Not as fast as the speed horses and not a strong closer like the other late runners here.
6) Honor Marie (Whitworth Beckman, Tyler Gaffalione, 20/1) has had a decent, but not great year finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, eighth in the Kentucky Derby, and fourth in the Belmont Stakes. This horse is another closer but does not have the late juice of Sierra Leone.
7) Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 5/2) is your morning line favorite and deservedly so. After a disappointing Derby run where he was 10th beaten 18 lengths, he rallied to win the Belmont and the Haskell with front running races. Will be part of what appears to be a big speed duel in the front here.
8) Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 3/1) was your 2-year-old champ and the favorite in the Derby before finishing 15th, 24 lengths off. Came back in the Jim Dandy with a front-running score, letting the racing world know he is back.
So, what happens?
This race is screaming for a speed duel with Dornoch, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna, Batten Down, and Unmatched Wisdom showing front end speed.
If that happens, everything plays right into the hands of Sierra Leone. I have picked this time and time again this year and have usually been disappointed. Not this time. Not this race. Sierra Leone closes from the parking lot, wins the race, and stamps himself as a BC Classic contender!
Come wager at the Pleasanton OTB!
As always, the Pleasanton Off-Track Betting center will be open where you can watch and wager on races from around the country.
For more information, please visit www.pleasantonotb.com.