Alameda County Fair June 17 picks
First race (1:45 p.m.)
Picks: Orczy, Sierra Melody, Earnest
Analysis: Pleasanton is known for being a speed figuring track, but with the high forecast for 68 today, the speed does not necessarily hold as well as a warm day. Orcyz was second and first last year under similar weather conditions. He did have Pedro Terrero last year when the jockey was on a roll, now gets Irving Orozco who has teamed with trainer Reid France to win at a 26 percent clip. Sierra Melody will be out quick here and has hit the board 9-of-16 times on the dirt. But, only has one win in the 16 starts on dirt. Has four career starts in Pleasanton, with a second and a third. Earnest has found success on the dirt, hitting the board 5-of-8 times. There is one start in Pleasanton on the resume, but he finished off the board. Will sit right off the pace and hope to get first run when then turn for home. Terrero will hope to have a run like he did last year in Pleasanton when he led the colony in wins with 13.
Second race (2:15 p.m.)
Picks: Not by Might, Gator Shining, Ayrton Senna
Analysis: This a spot where I am trusting the barn. Jonathan Wong has the top barn in Northern California and warrants some respect here. Not by Might debuted September 18, 2021, went out and wired the field in a tougher spot than this. As impressive as that was, the horse went right on the bench before making his second start today. The works to me shows that the horse is ready to go again. The morning line says 9/2, but I think he will go off at a lower price. Gator Shining has certainly seen better races than others in this spot and on paper seems the one to beat, but 1-for-13 makes me question if the horse likes to win races. Will be the favorite, so you must ask yourself if it is worth the risk at the low price. Could very easily win the race, but I try to beat him. Ayrton Senna is another where I will trust the barn. Came out in October in his debut and got a win, but then has not been seen in a race since. Trainer Steve Specht is very solid bringing horses back after extended breaks and if he is ready, is indeed right in the mix.
Third race (2:45 p.m.)
Picks: Pivotal Fever, Dr. Hoffman, Perseverance.
Analysis: Pivotal Fever has one start on dirt – it was here – and won the race. It is the only win in six starts, but he went wire-to-wire, the style for success here. At morning line odds of 8/1, this is a great value play. Dr. Hoffman is your morning line favorite, but I found enough to make me look elsewhere. For starters, has one win in 10 starts. And while that did come in an impressive maiden score at Santa Anita, he has gone from an $25,000 optional claimer at Santa Anita to a $4,000 claimer at Golden Gate Fields in September of 2021. And the horse went to the bench following that start. The barn is decent bringing horses back from that kind of break, and the works have been decent for the return, but this horse screams of needing a race. This might be one to watch as this meet goes on. Perseverance prefers the dirt with a win and two seconds in five career starts. This is the second start off a break which is usually a good sign, but the barn has not wone a race this year with this length of a break.
Fourth race (3:15 p.m.)
Picks: Remember Sue, Aliso Beach, Ball Lass
Analysis: Not always in favor of going with the morning line favorite but will do that here. Remember Sue has hit the board 6-of-8 starts this year, but all eight have been on synthetic or turf. When you have a Wong horse ridden by Evin Roman, it is a duo that is winning at 25 percent. Has speed, but does not need the lead, perfect for a route race here. The key for Aliso Beach is to stay out of trouble, something the horse has struggled with recently. The horse has bumped in her last two starts and has not been able to rally. Has seen some pretty good races and this spot will be one of her softest spots, so no trouble may mean a good finish. Ball Lass has hit the board in 2-of-3 this year and didn’t break her maiden until seventh career start. Has been off since March 19, but the barn brings a solid ROI off a break.
Fifth race (3:45 p.m.)
Picks: My Man Biggie, Doge of Venice, Knockout Guy.
Analysis: My Man Biggie is the type of horse than can go one way or the other. He has two starts at Santa Anita and both were much tougher races than this spot. Here’s the kicker – he did nothing in either start, so were they just too tough or does the horse just have nothing. On the positive sign the switch in barns is a step up as Wong hits at 24 percent when having a horse start for the first time in his barn. He either wins this for fun or finishes off the board. Doge of Venice has the best last start of this group, running second May 22 at Golden Gate Fields. Dropped after a fourth in his debut and takes another drop after the second. Every reason to expect a big run here. Knockout Guy brings similar credentials to My Man Biggie, having done nothing in two starts for a low percentage barn in Southern California and now moved to the top barn in the north. Brayan Pena usually gets the call from, and he has my pick in this race.
Sixth race (4:15 p.m.)
Picks: Empire House, Tip Top Gal, Lagatha.
Analysis: I am riding the Wong train today so it will either be feast or famine. Empire House is coming off a pair of route races and now drops back to a sprint, something where Wong his at 18 percent. In the last two – both on the turf – she was shown speed in both before getting run down from behind. Now you get five furlongs, a bullet work showing she is ready, and the same type of speed should produce a win here. You get 6/1 when the betting starts, but I am thinking 2/1 or 5/2 by post time. Tip Top Gal got buried in a stakes race two back over the turf at Golden Gate, but was much better the next start running third, pressing the pace. Any horse out of the George and Clare Schmitt barn is trained for speed so this one will be either on or pushing the pace. Lagatha has shown speed the last four starts and has a win and two seconds in the last three starts. But has she has not started on the dirt and will not get an easy lead.
Seventh race (4:45 p.m.)
Picks: She’s All Attitude, Stormy Sierra, Engee Ombee
Analysis: At a maiden $8,000 claimer, this might be one of the cheaper races of the day, but it also might be the easiest to pick. She’s All Attitude has had one start, blistered out of the gate and led until late where she gave way and finished fourth. Now it is the second start on a track where speed holds and sets up for a big one. All the Sierra horses are bred for speed so Stormy Sierra fits right up there in this field. Has not won in five starts, but the Sierra horses are also bred for dirt running. Will be a factor right out of the gate. Engee Ombee did beat She’s All Attitude but didn’t pass the horse until late and was second at every call. Thinking the speed holds today, I can’t see her getting the better of it here. Has three seconds in five starts, but none have come on dirt.