By Dennis Miller
After a great day one where there were five Breeders’ Cup races run – all featuring 2-year-olds – we get to Day Two and nine World Championship races, culminating with the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, set for a 3:16 p.m. post.
Here’s a look at the nine races, with the horses of the most interest to me.
BC Filly and Mare Sprint
(4th race, 10:10 a.m.)
Nothing like a sprint to get the blood flowing and that’s what we have here with 12 filly and mares set to go seven furlongs to get day of the BC Cup started.
Ways and Means (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 7/5) is the morning line favorite for a reason. She has won two of three this year, crossing the line first in her last two. After running second in the Derby City Distaff at Churchill of May 2, she came back to win the Grade II Bed of Roses June 5 at Saratoga, then crushed the field by five in the Ballerina on August 25 at Saratoga. She wants to be close early then take it over late. Her last two Beyer marks were 107 and 104.
R Disaster (Saffie Joseph, Tyler Gaffalione, 8/1) won the Derby City Distaff at 7/1 but then was sixth in the Ballerina on August 26 at Saratoga. Came back and wired the field in the Gallant Bloom on October 10 at Belmont. No secrets here as she wants the lead the minute the gate opens. Will make sure it’s a fair pace.
Foie Gras (Michael Maker, Ricardo Santana, 20/1) is a value play in this field. He might not be your winner, but he is going to be a factor in the lane. She has all 90 plus Beyer marks this year and has not been off the board in all five starts. Yes, the races are a level below most of this field, but she was third in the Grade III Winning Colors in May at Churchill and second in the Grade II Chicago on June 20, also at Churchill. Was off for a bit but then came back in the $300,000 Pink Ribbon on Aug. 28 at Charles Town and crushed the field by seven. Take a look if going deep here.
Explora (Bob Baffert, Jose Ortiz, 4/1) was fourth in the Kentucky Oaks this year but has rebounded with some solid runs. She won the Grade I Test on August 8 at Saratoga, topping the field by five lengths as the favorite. Next was the Grade III Dogwood on September 19 at Churchill where she led most of the race but caught late and was second by a head.
BC Turf Sprint
(5th race, 10:48 a.m.)
The shortest race of the Cup as a full field of 14 will go 5.5 furlongs in a shootout.
Bacio (Wesley Ward, JJ Hernandez, 5/2) has won all three starts this year, with the last two coming in Great Britan. In fact, he’s won five of six career starts overall with Hernandez as the pilot in the last five. This horse has a ton of speed and will be rolling early.
Yellow Card (Michael McCarthy, Flavien Prat, 8/1) has won two of three starts this year, with the most recent being the Grade II Turf Sprint on May 2 at Churchill. The barn has not been great with this length of break, but this runner has made over $1 million in purse money so warrants a look.
Comanche Brave (Donnacha O’Brien, Billy Loughnane, 3/1) ships in from Europe having won three of seven starts this year. In his last start on September 13, he won the Flying Five at Curragh in Ireland, coming from off the pace to clear the field by over a length. Seems to prefer to come from off the pace and figures to be full of run at the end.
In Our Time (Saffie Joseph, Micah Husbands, 20/1) a value play with this lot. In the last start he wired the field in the Grade I Ladies Turf Sprint on August 29 at Kentucky Downs at 6/1. If she was good enough to win that, then take a look at the value here. If she can get out early, anything is possible.
Cy Fair (George Weaver, John Velazquez, 8/1) is the defending champion and won this race at 5/1 last year. Her last start was sixth in the Grade II Music City on Sept. 5 at Kentucky Downs. She found trouble that day but had been running well before that start. The two starts before that were a win in the Grade III Mamzelle on April 30 at Churchill and a win in the Grade IIII C Cup on July 18 at Saratoga. We will toss the last effort as first start off a break and I expect much more this time.
Joe Shiesty (Eric Foster, F De La Cruz, 10/1) has won two straight, taking the $249,000 Turf Sprint on Aug. 2 on Ellis Park, then taking the Grade II Woodford at Keeneland on Oct. 3. He has a lot of speed he is more than happy to take the lead out of the gate and the last two wins have been wire jobs.
BC Dirt Mile
(6th race, 11:26 a.m.)
This is always one of my favorite races each year and we have another great one set for Saturday. There are 11 horses set to tackle the one-mile dirt races.
Further Ado (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 2/1) has two wins and two seconds in six starts this year. He was 11th in the Kentucky Derby as one of the co-favorites but then came back to take the Grade III Matt Winn a month later. After finishing fifth in the Haskell on July 18 at Monmouth, he took some time before finishing second on the Penn Derby on September 19 at PARX. Here’s the unknown – this is his first time at the one-mile distance. He’s been going longer so he should have some juice as he cuts back.
Bracket Buster (Victoria Oliver, John Velazquez, 7/2) has a win and a second in two starts this year at second-tier tracks, winning the West Virginia Governor at Mountaineer by 15 lengths, then came back in his most recent start to run second in the $300,000 PARX Dirt Mile on Sept. 19. He figures to be pushing the pace as he has won his lone start at the distance.
Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch, Luis Saez, 10/1) is a value play here. He hit the board in four of five starts, with the last three all being good starts. Three back he was second in the Grade III Hanshin on June 28 at Churchill, earning a 103 Beyer. That was followed by a win in the RA Cowboy Jones on August 9 at Ellis Park, getting a 105 Beyer in the process. In his most recent run, he has third in the Grade III Ack Ack on Sept. 26 at Churchill. He has hit the board in all five starts at the distance and leans towards being near the front.
Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, JP Vargas, 6/1) has run with some of the others entered here. He has fourth in the Hanshin, third in the Cowboy Jones, and was second in the Ack Ack, stalking the pace and then coming home strongly. The last two races have produced a 102 and 100 Beyer. If you like Owen Almighty, then you must look here as well.
BC Filly and Mare Turf
(7th race, 12:04 p.m.)
Here we’ve got the ladies going 1-3/16-miles on the grass. There is a full field of 14 entered here.
Gimme a Nother (Graham Motion, John Velazquez, 10/1) has run three times this year and has won all three races. First came the Grade III Eatontown Stakes basically wiring the field to win by over three. The next was the Grade II Beverly D on August 1 at Colonial Downs where it was a win by a neck. Finally on September 12 she took the Grade I EP Taylor at Woodbine, once again winning by a neck. She’s going to be on the lead or push the pace.
Kathynmarissa (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 5/1) has four starts this year with three wins and a third. The most recent start was the Grade II Flower Bowl on Oct. 1 at Belmont where she came from mid-pack to win by almost a length. Before then on July 18 at Saratoga, she won the Grade I Diana, once again coming from midpack to get up in the final jumps to get the win. This is a horse that loves to run in the middle and then charge in the lane. In just 15 career starts, she has brought in over $2 million in career earnings.
Bless the Broken (Brad Cox, Oisin Murphy, 20/1) is a big value play here. She has hit the board six times in seven starts this year, with the last a third in the Grade I First Lady on October 3 at Keeneland, finishing behind two others entered here. Before then she won the Grade II Ladies Turf on Sept. 5 at Kentucky Downs. He doesn’t want anything to do with the early lead but will track the speed and make the move late.
Blue Bolt (Andrew Balding, Colin Keane, 5/2) has won her last six starts, all which has been run this year in Europe. She runs close to the pace and stays in touch with the leaders. She has made $1.2 million this year and is the one to beat here.
Precise (Aiden O’Brien, Ryan Moore, 7/2) ships over from Europe and has been chasing Blue Bolt in every start. If you think that Blue Bolt is the one to beat at this spot – and I do – then you need to do your diligence on this one as well.
BC Sprint
(8th race, 12:32 p.m.)
To me this has always been the equivalent of the 100-meter dash in the Olympics. The fastest horses get together and battle over six furlongs for a world title.
Hymn (Ronald Moquett, Ricardo Santana, 15/1) has four wins in seven starts this year. Only the last two races have been graded races but both have been impressive. Two back it was the Grade II AG Vanderbilt on July 25 at Saratoga where he was second by two lengths. Last time out on August 29 in the Grade I Forego, also at Saratoga, he was the winner at 5/1. In a race where if you break clean, you have a shot, do yourself a favor and take a look at some solid value plays.
Built (Wayne Catalano, Luis Saez, 10/1) has won four of seven starts this year and he was first and second in the two graded races he ran. The first was the Grade III Bango at Churchill Downs on June 27, where he was second by a half-length, overcoming a bobble in the process. On July 25 at Saratoga he took the Grade II Vanderbilt, breaking third, then taking the lead not much later, then holding the lead the rest of the way.
Roll on Big Joe (R B Hess, Julien Leparoux, 30/1) is perplexing to me at 30/1 as he has five straight races of 100-plus Beyer marks. The love concern is that he’s been off since May 30 when he was second in the Grade III Aristides. He chased the pace throughout and just missed getting up for the win. The works for the return have been good and if he’s ready to run, he could be tough. Check the tote for keys.
T O Elvis (Daisuke Takayanagi, Ryusei Sakai, 7/2) is a Japanese horse that comes in with six wins in nine starts in his career. This year he shipped to the United States and took the Grade I Churchill Downs by over three lengths, taking the lead at the top of the lane and drawing off, earning a 108 Beyer.
The Englishman (Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 4/5) is the heavyweight favorite with two straight wins, both overly impressive wins. Two back it was the Grade I Woody Stephens on June 6 at Saratoga, running second for while, then taking control as they turned for home, winning by over five lengths are getting a 115 Beyer. On August 25, also at Saratoga, he wired the field in the Grade I Jerkins, winning by over three and getting a 117 Beyer. Speed, speed, and speed.
BC Mile
(9th race, 1:20 p.m.)
There is a full field of 12 set to go one mile on the turf.
Lake Forest (William Haggas, Christophe Fallon, 6/1) shipped over from Europe and ran in the Grade I Turf Mile at Keeneland on October 3 and ran a solid second to another entered here. Now he’s settled in and the closer should be ready for a good one.
Notable Speech (Charles Appleby, William Buick, 7/5) is the defending champ, using a thrilling stretch run to get through a crowded field and win by over a length. He went back to Europe for a while, then came back to North America where he took the Woodbine Mile on September 12 as the heavy favorite, He comes from off the pace.
Rhetorical (William Walden, Jose Ortiz, 8/1) is coming off an impressive win in the Turf Mile on October 3 at Keeneland. He wired the field that day and has shown speed in most of his races. He was fourth in this race last year.
True Love (Aiden O’Brien, William Lordan, 8/1) has won three of eight races this year, with the last six starts coming in Grade I races. He did come over the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year but was eighth, five lengths back.
BC Distaff
(10th race, 1:58 p.m.)
This is the big race of the day for the ladies as nine horses are set to travel 1-1/8-miles on the main track with a purse of $2 million.
Nitrogen (Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 6/5) is the favorite and has not been worse than second in her last four starts with two wins and two places. The last effort was a win in the Grade II Beldame on Sept. 25 at Belmont, getting a 103 Beyer for the race. That day she wired the field and in the last three starts she has gone straight to the lead.
Fully Subscribed (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 8/5) is the second choice and has been either first or second in her five starts this year. The last effort was a win in the Grade I Spinster at Keeneland on Oct. 4. It was her third straight win, with all three coming with the same style – press the pace, then make a move when turning for home. Two back in the Grade I Personal Ensign on August 29 at Saratoga, she drew off in the lane, winning by nine and getting a 106 Beyer.
Scottish Lassie (Jorge Abreu, Luis Saez, 15/1) was second her last two races, both times to Fully Subscribed. Been there last two and with the value, could be a nice one to go underneath on the ticket.
Splendora (Bob Baffert, Tyler Gaffalione, 9/2) has won five of her six starts this year, including the last three races. She won the Grade II Shawnee on May 30 at Churchill followed by a win in the Grade II Molly Pitcher on July 18 at Monmouth. The last start was a five-length romp of Sept. 12 at Churchill of the Grade II Locust Grove Stakes. She went wire-to-wire, growing the lead throughout. Last year she won the BC Filly and Mare Sprint by four lengths.
BC Turf
(11th race, 2:36 p.m.)
The penultimate race of this year’s Breeders’ Cup has a full field of 14 going 1-1/2-miles on the Turf for a purse of $5 million.
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore, 6/1) brings together the lethal connections for the weekend’s biggest turf race. He has won two of five starts this year and is coming off a ninth in the Arc on October 4. I feel like is the one I may toss off my ticket but these connections always gives me cause for pause.
Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., 8/1) has taken four of six starts this year and had won three straight until laying an egg in the Grade II Turf Cup September 5 at Kentucky Downs. He has been throwing bullets in his morning works this month. He will run mid-pack and get first call on the early speed.
Diamond Necklace (Aiden O’Brien, Christophe Soumillon, 3/1) has three wins in five starts this year, along with a second and a third. His most recent start was a third in the Arc, coming up a neck short of second.
Bay City Roller (George Scott, Oisin Murphy, 5/1) may not be your winner but you will regret not having him on our ticket. Has one win in six stars but adds four seconds and a third on the season as he is involved in every race. He was second in the Arc at 37/1 and has seen nothing but Grade I or II races this year. Has speed and will be a pace factor in this one.
BC Classic
(12th race, 3:16 p.m.)
The big daddy of the event! There are eight horses going the Classic distance of 1-1/4-miles for a purse of $7 million.
Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Junior Alvardo, 5/2) is the big boy from last year where he won five of six starts including two-thirds of the Triple Crown. This year he’s run twice, opening with the Grade I Stephen Foster June 27 at Churchill where we was third. He came back August 8 in the Grade I Whitney at Saratoga where he drew off to win by over four lengths, earning a 112 Beyer. This is the toughest field he’s faced.
Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 2/1) is the defending champ here and he has been great this year as well, winning the Grade I Saudi Cup and the Grade I Jockey Clu 2b Gold Cup, and finishing a close to Magnitude in the Dubia World Cup. He has won over $32 million in career earnings. Loves to be close to the pace.
Magnitude (Steve Asmussen, Flavien Prat, 6-1) is the value play on the morning line, but I would be shocked to get anywhere near 6/1 when the race goes off. He was the man earlier this year, seemingly invincible in winning the Grade I Dubai World Cup, beating Forever Young in then process and the Grade I Stephen Foster, beating Sovereignty and getting 114 Beyer. Then came the Grade I Whitney. He stumbled at the start and then tired, finishing sixth by 15 lengths, Now, he’s the fifth favorite on the morning line. He’s had a series of strong works over the track and I am thinking he’s sitting on a big one.
Knightsbridge (Bill Mott, Luis Saez, 9/2) is the sneaky monster here. He’s won four of six starts this year, including the last two starts which were awesome. First came the Grade III Monmouth Cup on July 18 where he won by 11 lengths and got a 122 Beyer. Showing that was no fluke, he came back to win the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 22 by over six lengths, getting a 104 Beyer. Before those two he was second in the Met Mile on June 6 at Saratoga. Big work on Oct. 15 at Saratoga, then followed with a good maintenance work over the Keeneland surface on Oct. 24. I think the phrase is, “locked and loaded”.