By Dennis Miller
Big weekend ahead for the Pleasanton OTB community as we have three Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, as well as another FREE handicapping contest on Saturday.
The three preps, which are previewed below are the Gotham at Aqueduct and Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, and the Rebel at Oaklawn on Sunday.
Aqueduct
Grade III Gotham
(10th race, 2:18 p.m.)
There nine horses entered to go to post in the one-mile race over the main track.
Balboa (Brittany Russell, S. Russell) has been a strong and consistent runner since moving out to the East from the West Coast back in November. He won a stake at Laurel back in November, then moved to Aqueduct and has run third, then second in a pair of Derby preps over the track. He was third in the Remsen in December, then was second in the Jerome in January. He likes to be a pace factor, getting near the lead in his last three starts.
Iron Honor (Chad Brown, Manny Franco) has only his start against straight maidens on Dec. 13 at Aqueduct as his only race but what a debut it was. He pushed the pace until they turned for home, then took over, winning by over a length and earning a 95 Beyer for the debut. He also beat a horse that came back to win his next starts and is also entered here.
Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, Christopher Elliott) ran third to Iron Honor in both runner’s debut, then came back and won his next start, also against straight maidens, coming from well back to get the win by over a length. Both starts were over the Aqueduct track.
Crown the Buckeye (Michael Maker, Ricardo Santana) ran in a pair of prep races at the Fair Grounds before shipping up to New York for this spot. He set the pace in the Gun Runner on Dec. 20 before fading to third late. He came back a month later in the Grade III Lecomte and set the pace early again but this time he faded to eighth. Has been off since then and has had some good works. I have to think if he fades here, he’s done with the Derby trail and possibly becomes a sprinter.
Gulfstream Park
Grade II Fountain of Youth
(14th race, 3:11 p.m.)
There are 11 horses entering here, going 1-1/16-miles on the main track. This is the best field of any of the preps up to this point as there at least five entered here that at this time, I could make a strong case to be in the Derby field come May. Obviously, things change in the next two-plus months but there does appear to be some runners here.
Jackson Hole (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez) is almost a $1.5 million dollar horse that has run twice and won twice. First it was straight maidens Dec. 13 at Gulfstream where he stalked the pace and charged home over a length in front. Then it was a $125,000 optional claimer on Jan. 17 at the Fair Grounds where he wired the field and drew off to win by over five lengths. He has been working well and reconnects with Johnny V who rode the debut.
Commandment (Brad Cox, Irad Ortiz) is a $750,000 purchase that had his debut back in early October, started poorly and moved through the field to finish fourth. He took some time off coming back at Churchill on Nov. 1 and got it done, drawing off to win by five. His most recent start was Jan. 3 at Gulfstream in the Mucho Macho Man and once again he stalked then drew off winning by over six lengths. He has been working well in the mornings and looks ready to roll here.
Bravaro (Saffie Joseph, Tyler Gaffalione) was second in the Holy Bull on Jan. 31, finishing five lengths behind Nearly who was impressive that day. That was his first start since late October, and it was a strong return. He has strong works for this, and I fully expect him to be influencing the pace. Is also entered in the Rebel on Sunday at Oaklawn.
Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Kendrick Carmouche) has been off since October when he was amazing in winning the Grade I Champagne at Aqueduct. The works for the last two months have been consistent and strong, making me think he will be live here. And with the other runners in this race, he might end up being your value play here.
Solitude Dude (Saffie Joseph, Flavien Prat) has run three races since debuting Nov. 1 and has turned three wins, all impressive performances. The debut came at Gulfstream against straight maidens, and he won by nine lengths. Five weeks later he came back in a $102,000 stake at Tampa Bay Downs and won by eighth lengths. Finally on Jan. 31 in the Swale at Gulfstream and won by three lengths. Is this the toughest group he’s faced? Yes, but this is also the time when someone seemingly steps up and solidifies themselves as contenders.
Sunday
Oaklawn Park
Grade II Rebel
(11th race, 3:23 p.m.)
Another top-notch race with no fewer than five potential Derby threats and one more that may be at the crossroads here.
Ten are entered for the 1-1/16-mile race and is the second big prep of early Derby campaigns.
Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat) has gotten a lot of love for a horse that has one win in four starts against winners. After breaking in his debut back in August at Del Mar he has not been able to find the winners circle until his last start. That was the Los Alamitos Futurity against an average field of six on December 13. He has been off since that race on Dec. 13 but he has been working well and Baffert brings horses off that length of break at 32 percent. There are questions but he is on my Derby list.
Bravaro (Saffie Joseph, Tyler Gaffalione) was second in the Holy Bull on Jan. 31, finishing five lengths behind Nearly who was impressive that day. That was his first start since late October, and it was a strong return. He has strong works for this, and I fully expect him to be influencing the pace. Is also entered in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) has three starts and hasn’t had a bad one. He broke in his second start in August at Ellis Park crushing the field by over nine-lengths. Jumped into a big one Oct. 4 at Keeneland, running second to Ted Noffey in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity. Ted Noffey would have been the likely heavy favorite for the Derby had he not been taken off the trail. He has been off since then but his steady work tab and connections warrant, he has consideration.
Strategic Risk (Mark Casse, Javier Castellano) is one that is facing a potential fish or cut bait race. Two back he won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 3, an early Derby prep. He came back a little over a month later in the Grade III Southwest and messed up the bed, finishing 10th beaten 10 lengths. A decent work tab and the win in the Smarty Jones at 5/2 warrants him getting another chance here. Another poor showing may find him off the trail.
Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Christian Torres) is looking for respect here after a second in the Smarty Jones followed by a win in the Southwest – pair of races where he was 14/1 and 12/1. I would be shocked if you got anywhere near that here. A big closer that will get pace to run at and has every right to be a factor off the pace here.
Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz) was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 29 at Churchill, then took a break before coming back here at Oaklawn with a second in the Southwest. Likes the track and has seen some strong races. He should be part of the pace factor here but doesn’t need the lead. Worth a good look.