Alameda County Fair Picks – Sunday, June 19
First race (1:45 p.m.)
Picks: Queen of Love, Rosebud Ryde, Cyclone Stew
Analysis: Another of my favorite angles is when Steve Sherman gets a Southern California shipper that has not been running well down south. Queen of Love fits that bill in this race. The horse had been off 14 months before coming back and running an uninspired third in a four-horse field, beaten by over 18 lengths. Gets sent to Sherman’s barn and will look to finally get a win after a 0-for-9 start to her career. Really not a lot to get excited in past performances, but this is a move I have seen work many times before. Rosebud Ryde had a weak debut, but then came with a solid second effort finishing second at this level with a vastly improved performance. This is a good spot to get the win. Cyclone Stew may have seven starts without a win, but the horse really does seem to be improving the last three races, running fourth, then third, and finally second in her last start. Logical to feel this horse has a shot.
Second race (2:15 p.m.)
Picks: Premium Forest, Lookin for Revenge, Sacred Rider.
Analysis: Premium Forest is a perfect 2-for-2 over the Pleasanton track, winning against a tougher field here last year. The horse loves to close and as long as he doesn’t give up too much real estate early, he should be sitting in the garden spot when they hit the top of the lane. It will be the fourth different barn in the last four races for Lookin for Revenge. Won its lone start over Pleasanton, getting out to a big lead before holding on for the win. Should have the early lead, but it doesn’t appear he needs the lead early to win.
Third race (2:45 p.m.)
Picks: Stoic Luna, Air Force Woman, Phantom Indian.
Analysis: Claimed out of Santa Anita by the sharp Reid France barn Stoic Luna should get the trip she loves, sitting just off the pace and pouncing in the lane. The barn hits at 36 percent off the claim and this should be another winner. Air Force Woman has won two straight since shipping up from Southern California where she had not been performing well. The last race was the first for her new barn and it is the lone win for the barn this year. Might be the only speed in the field, so a breakaway is possible. Phantom Indian will be chasing the pacesetter, but I don’t see her getting the first run over Stoic Luna, which should eliminate her from the win.
Fourth race (3:15 p.m.)
Picks: Candybox, Safe Combination, The Lonna Ranger
Analysis: Candybox had two starts at Santa Anita and did nothing before shipping north. In the first start, he ran a strong second place. Now in a new barn that win 30 percent a new starter – granted it is a small sample size – looks poised to get the first win. Safe Combination did okay down south before heading north. He’s had two starts up here and has improved in the two starts. Looks to be one to run off the pace. The Lonna Ranger dropped to this level for his last start and ran better. Next, we will see if he can take to the dirt in this spot. Solid connections give a good shot.
Fifth race (3:45 p.m.)
Picks: Dumb Luck, Lightinthedarkness, Refi Now.
Analysis: Dumb Luck has shown speed in all four starts, two of which were wins. Now comes to a track where speed in a sprint is often rewarded. He will not have an easy lead so there are some concerns. Lightinthedarkness is shooting for his third win over the Pleasanton track in as many years. All have come from the front end so it’s obvious the horse likes the track. Takes a big drop for this one. Likely we will see this horse again in this meet. Refi Now seems to be finding his stride Will be the third barn in as many races so people are taking notice of the strides the runner has been making.
Sixth race (4:15 p.m.)
Picks: Danny Michael, Hakunui, Fromajacktoaking
Analysis: Danny Michael has been knocking on the door the last three with a second and two thirds. So, what gets him across the line in first this time? I feel it has to do with him seeing some better races. Two back he ran second, with the winner and the third place horse coming back to win. Big question is – will he get the speed duel out front he needs to set up for him. Hakunui was fourth behind my top picks second -place finish in their last start. He has shown speed in all four starts and that should translate well in Pleasanton. Fromajacktoaking comes off five straight turf races, now heads for the dirt for a barn that finds success with move 33 percent of the time. Appears to have some speed and will need it here.
Seventh race (4:45 p.m.)
Picks: Respect the Hustle, Honos Man, Exclusive Speaker
Analysis: Respect the Hustle has always been a favorite of mine since winning the Oak Tree Juvenile in September of 2017 here in Pleasanton. It’s the same ownership group and Billy McLean is still the trainer. Has every shot to win this one from just off the pace and he comes through, there will be a festive celebration around the downstairs bar! Long time rider William Antongeorgi III is still in the saddle. Honos Man has the distinction of winning the Humbolt County Marathon last year, the most unique race, arguably in all of California up in Ferndale. The horses cross the finish line four times in the race. Since it takes place in Ferndale the horses don’t a lot of respect in winning the race, but the horse came back two months later and was second in the Bulldog Stakes in Fresno at 23-1. Been off since then, but the barn is strong at 38 percent for that long of a layoff, and he does have a bullet drill for the return. Exclusive Speaker is coming off the best last race, earning an 83 Beyer. Wine and Whiskey – in addition to being a fantastic name – had a race two back that just sizzled but laid an egg in the last start.
Eighth race (5:15 p.m.)
Picks: Perfectly Julie, Carolyn’s Way, City Glitter.
Analysis: For horse owner George Schmitt, Pleasanton has always been the most important meet of the year since Schmitt is a long time Pleasanton resident. Recently things have not been going his way for his runners as he went 0-for-19 last year and through the first two days this year he and his wife Clare have failed to visit the winner’s circle. That changes here as Perfect Julie will get the job done. The horse has speed and now gets a track where speed holds. He is also wheeling back from a pair of route races to a sprint and posted a bullet work to set up for this spot. Carolyn’s Way debuted May 8 and promptly won. After a brief break she is back for a solid barn and should be right around the pace throughout. City Glitter was right behind Perfect Julie in her last start and while I don’t think she has the speed to keep up with my top pick, she has every right to grab a spot on the ticket.