Alameda County Fair Horse Racing Picks
Friday, June 21
Welcome to Day 4 of the Alameda County Fair horse racing meet! There are seven races, with the first post at 1:45 p.m. Post time for the seventh race is set for 4:45 p.m.
In the analysis for each race in post-position order.
First race (5-1/2 furlongs, claiming, 1:45 p.m.)
La Primer Estrella (Jesus Ramos, Irving Orozco, 3/1) has two wins in three starts. The two winners sandwiched a fifth-place finish when she took a step up. Both wins have come wire to wire, which has not been the route thus far in Pleasanton. Has not started on the dirt yet so it will be interesting to see how she adapts. Little Liliana (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 8/1) has a win and two seconds in six starts this year. Three back was the best recent performance was three back when she was second, coming from off the pace. Hollywood Rumor (Samuel Calvario, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 6/1) is coming off a win where she stalked then pounced in the lane. The connections stay together, with both having success through the first three days. Earning the top trainer and rider through the first three days in terms of wins. Lion’s Lair (Arnold Torres, William Antongeorgi, 5/1) made a return to the track on May 26 after being off since late November. She ran an unflattering fifth and should be better here. There were a couple times she showed speed last year, including one start where she wired the field. Bacalar (Efrain Miranda, Cristobal Herrera, 7/2) has six starts this year with a pair of wins and a second place finish. The horse has always shown speed and she wired the field two and three back. This spot is a little tougher than where she got the two wins. Is 0-for-2 on the Pleasanton dirt. Roses R Blue (Reid France, Leon Scott, 2/1) has already been busy with nine starts. Has got a win, two places, and a show in those nine efforts. The last two have been seconds and came when she stalked the field then picked up some ground late.
My play: The one hole has not been working for Pleasanton at this point so that takes La Primer Estrella out of the win conversation and pushes my chips all in on Bacalar to get out and go for the win. 5-1-3.
Second race (1-mile, 70 yards; claiming, 2:15 p.m.)
Playboy Style (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 8/1) is coming off a win where sat right of the pace, made a move late, and finished in a dead-heat for the win. Sea of Liberty (Jamey Thomas, Irving Orozco, 5/2) has a strong 3-race streak with a pair of wins sandwiching a second. All three races featured closing runs, which if it is warming up may be a tough running style. Sugar Beets (Manuel Badilla, Alexander Chavez, 9/5) got a win two back, stalking the pace then taking the lead at the top of the lane and never looked back at GGF. Went to the turf for the next start which was a failure. Now comes to the dirt where he has hit the board five times in seven starts. Lookout Point (Gary Greiner, William Antongeorgi, 10/1) has not had a good year taking on better but if there is a positive it’s the return to dirt where he has hit the board in four of seven starts. Bronze Warrior (Gary Greiner, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 9/2) has shown speed in nearly every start but has backed many times. In the last start he took a 2-length lead into the lane but got past late and finished second. If he gets that lead here, they may not catch him. J T’s Watch (Wendall McDaniel, Frank Alvarado, 4/1) won the last start, with the same jockey. The jock is red hot, winning three of his eight starts opening weekend. One to look at.
My play: I like Sea of Liberty on the win end as he has been beating better than he will see here. I’ve got to use Sugar Beets and J T’s Watch underneath. 2-3-6.
Third race (6 furlongs, optional claimer, 2:45 p.m.)
Embraceable You (Miguel Rodriguez, Hugo Herrera, 8/1) won against straight maidens in her debut. Next up was an optional claimer, facing winners for the first time and finished fifth in a five-horse field. Has come back with a sharp work so it’s not a reach to think she runs better here. Brookys Gal (Isidro Tamayo, Alexander Chavez, 9/2) has been solid this year with two wins, a second, and a fourth. The fourth came in her return from a 5-week break. All the runs have come from off the pace so she might need to sit closer to have a shot. Rose of Jericho (Steve Sherman, Alexander Chavez, 3/1) is the one to beat here. Five starts this year has produced three wins, a second, and a third. Hasn’t had the lead early in any of his starts but does not sit far off. Expect a great run here. Blevys Tiger (Manuel Badilla, Irving Orozco, 8/5) has been off since October 3 of last year. Did run well last year, getting a pair of wins, a second, and a fourth stake at Del Mar. Did have a bullet work over the Pleasanton track last week. If she’s ready could be your winner at a price. Kristin Lee (Faith Taylor, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 5/2) has started three times this year and has won all three. One in January, won in February, then went to the bench until May 12. Not a problem as she went out and ran her usual race, stalking the pace, then going by in the lane.
My play: You could make a case for everyone in the field but in my mind, Rose of Jericho is the winner. Crazy good work before the last start, and you got a winner. Now comes back here looking like the winner. Blevys Tiger tops the field by far in past class, but I need to see one after eight months on the shelf. 3-4-5.
Fourth race (1 mile-70 yards, claiming, 3:15 p.m.)
Achromatic (Jorge Bautista, Frank Alvarado, 9/2) started 2024 with a third, beaten six lengths and that has been the best performance of the year. Has had no dirt starts so maybe the switch will trigger something. Ima Keen Ice (Victor Trujillo, Santos Rivera, 5/1) broke maiden in her last start by coming off the pace. Two back she came on late and ran second. There’s closing speed there but not sure there will be pace to run at. Caligraphy (Jorge Bautista, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 6-1) is 1-for-13 career. Ran once in October-to-February, then went to the shelf for four months. Came back after the break and ran just like she had been. Did have a second last August at Santa Rosa on the dirt so maybe something will help with the surface switch. Clicking (Isidro Tamayo, William Antongeorgi, 10/1) has hit the board in three of four starts, and broke maiden two back. Tried the turf next out trailed throughout. Takes a big drop and goes to the dirt – of interest. Fresno Chile (Monty Meier, Catalino Martinez, 9/5) is 0-for-5 this year in hitting the board But it has been against better. Ran sixth over this track last year. No Beaches (Felix Rodan, Adrian Castellanos, 12/1) broke maiden three back but hasn’t shown much since. Slides down another level but with no dirt experience it’s tough to get a read. Hello Baby (Melanie McDonald, Hugo Herrera, 7/2) was picked up by the barn for the last two starts where she promptly was sixth twice. Has eight dirt starts, winning once and finishing second once. Has shown no speed.
My play: I have to go with Clicking here. Wanted no part of the turf in the last start. In a race with no speed, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is sent. 4-2-7.
Fifth race (6 furlongs, maiden claiming, 3:45 p.m.)
Shadowed Thoughts (Victor Trujillo, Frank Alvarado, 3/1) has hit the board in five-of-six starts this year but just hasn’t gotten over the hump for a win. Ran a strong third last time in the first start off a break so might be tough here. Icy Mischief (Isidro Tamayo, Irving Orozco, 5/2) tries blinkers here to keep focus in the first start for the barn. Looks like there may be a little speed here for the barn that is decent off the claim. Emerald Flash (Reid France, Alexander Chavez, 10/1) makes her debut today as a 5-year-old. Not much else to go on other than she has been consistently working and does have a work over the track. Mamarando (Guillermo Preciado, William Antongeorgi, 6/1) hit the board in 2-of-5 starts but in the last was the first start for the barn and was seventh. Also looks like one that may have some speed. Almost Got Lucky (Sheldon Paldanius, Adrian Castellanos, 9/2) has run third three times out of her six starts this year. Those were the first three starts of the year, with the last three all being a fourth-place finish. Did not take to the turf last start, now back the dirt where the horse is 0-for-2. Triple Slipper (Samuel Calvario, Santos Rivera, 15/1) another runner making her debut. There have been plenty of works for the debut but nothing leaps off the page. Connect the Drops (Terri Eaton, Hugo Herrera, 8/1) was sixth in debut in a $25,000 maiden race, then fifth at $12,500. Now she tries for $8,000. Susie Cru (Monty Meier, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 6/1) ran second four back, the lone time the horse has hit the board thus far this year. All her races have been run consistently.
My play: Shadowed Thoughts has by far shone he at least likes to run in the money. On the flip side some horses just don’t like to win races. I believe we will see her do that today. 1-2-5.
Sixth race (1 mile-70 yards, claiming, 4:15 p.m.)
Tiz My Princess (Steve Sherman, Frank Alvarado, 9/2) has been running in races and doing little. Runs at the lowest level and that may make a difference. Has a win and a second in six starts this year. Vulin (Jeff Bonde, William Antongeorgi, 2/1) starts for the barn for the first time after being claimed at Santa Anita in late May. Has hit the board twice in four starts down south. Has been claimed in last two starts. Has hit the board in six of her eight career dirt starts. Topanticipaton (Jorge Maravilla, Hugo Herrera, 5/1) had her last four starts on the dirt. Has no dirt races so will see if she can handle the surface. Remember Sue (O J Jauregui, Alexander Chavez, 10/1) has not run since September of last year. Had a fast work over the track for the return. Looks to lay low and a make a run. She has three starts over the Pleasanton track and has not hit the board. Amanda Rose (Reid France, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 3/1) is coming off a race where she set the pace on the turf before getting passed late and finishing second. Has one second in two career efforts at Pleasanton. Ten the Smart Way (Samuel Calvaro, Adrian Castellanos, 6/1) will be a pace factor here and could go to lead out of the gate. Has been off since April 12 so she should be fresh although the barn only hits at 10 percent with that move. One win in four starts this year and that came two back against similar. Northern Rose (Jorge Bautista, Santos Rivera, 12/1) has one win in five starts this year and that came in the same level three back. Bumped up after the win and has done nothing and is now back at her best level.
My play: Vulin I expect to thrive after shipping up and run at the lowest she has against winners. I believe she will be a pace factor. I would be happy to see her stalk, then take over when they turn for home. 2-6-5.
Seventh race (5-1/2 furlongs, straight maiden, 4:45 p.m.)
Drinks At the Club (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 5/1) debuted at a mile on the turf and was horrible. The next stop was a sprint he ran a solid third. Now we’ve got the third start and if he takes to the dirt, it could be a good one. Monsieur (D Wayne Baker, Epifanio Garcia, 12/1) is coming of two route races, one of which was good with the other being a disaster. Cuts back to a sprint but another with no dirt starts. We shall see. Booming Bertrando (Marcia Stortz, Frank Alvarado, 6/1) has been off since January 28. Has had a decent work tab for the return and is putting the blinkers. At 0-for-18 it is hard to endorse on the win side. Nightbirde It’s Ok (Victor Trujillo, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 5/2) ran well two back, finishing second at 10/1. Got well bet the next start and finished fourth losing a spot in the lane. I Am Amadeo (Jesus Ramos, William Antongeorgi, 8/1 ) had a nice three race run of finishing and the connections decided to try the turf. Big mistake as he ran in seventh place all around the racetrack, beating only one horse. G G Gilley (Jose Bautista, Alejandro Gomez,7/2) had a third, then a fifth in his two starts. Has shown speed in both starts. Now Then (Miguel Ramirez, Hugo Herrera, 15/1) makes his debut here. Consistent series of works but nothing noteworthy. Barn has hit once with five time-first starters. Not My Rodeo (Cliff Delima, Francisco Duran, 4/1) has improved in each of his four starts. Last out he battled up front, had the lead heading into the lane, battled and finished second by a length.
My play: An easy play for me here with I Am Amadeo. Was looking the first win was on its way and then they opted for a sprint on the dirt, and it was not pretty. Now back to the main track and it should be time to graduate.