By Dennis Miller
Photo: Coady Media/Churchill Downs
Expect anything Saturday in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby.
This could be the deepest field I have seen in the Derby in some time. I usually start from the bottom and eliminate 4-6 horses I feel have no chance to win the race.
This year as I started through that, it was hard for me to just throw the horse out. I found that while a lot of the runners would need everything to go right to have a shot at winning, I could put together a scenario where that happens.
Even with some of the longshot horses, I am seeing myself creating scenarios they could be the next Mind That Bird or Rich Strike.
The toughest part of handicapping the Derby each year is factoring in the variables in the Derby that these horses have not seen and may not see again or are just Derby specific.
*It is a 20-horse field (19 as of Friday late morning) which no one has seen before nor will anyone see again. The horses that affects the most are the deep closers. It is one thing to go last to first in a 10-horse field, but 20 is an entirely different situation. If you need to pass 17 horses in the final quarter mile, that is a huge ask.
It takes a run like Rich Strike showed in winning the 2022 Derby at 80/1, weaving in and out, changing lanes and avoiding fading horses. It was hard to believe, even after watching it multiple times.
*With 20 horses, the race could be over for some within the first 50 yards. Think of the start as NASCAR at Talladega. If a horse comes out of the gate and takes a right or a left, the domino effect will take a bunch of horses out of their rhythm and realistically out of the race.
*Weather: As of Thursday, there was a 95 percent chance of thunderstorms, meaning we could very easily be looking at an off-track. Most horses do not like dirt in the face, and when it turns to mud, it’s even worse. And once again, having a 20-horse field means there are many more horses to throwing mud and dirt. There are also horses that run better when the track is muddy.
*Be set to accept the best horse in the race might not win, with that honor going to the horse that has the best racing luck.
At the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is the best betting race as you get higher odds on these horses than you will get the rest of their careers.
Being that this year I can’t automatically toss any horses, I am changing my rating system for this race. I am going with a grading system where there are three groups – A, B, and C.
The post-position, which always is a factor with 20 horses entered, is listed before the name of the horse.
A (The elite runners)
No. 8 Journalism (Michael McCarthy trainer, Umberto Rispoli, 3/1) is the morning line favorite and deservedly so. He has won four of his last starts, running third in his debut, then winning four in a row. He has been starting towards the back of the field but those have been five-horse fields, not 20-horse mass races. He gradually picks off the horses he starts behind, then gets down and dirty in the lane. Look in depth at his last two starts where he won both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Both were five-horse fields where he was able to maneuver to the outside easily and get the win. If he sits 10-12 deep, he is going to have to go wider than usual to get by those in front of him. Not impossible but a lot more difficult than what he has seen so far. Still the favorite but there are variables here like the fact he has been on nothing but fast tracks so far, never once running on an off-track. Great draw for the horse.
No. 18 Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 5/1) has run twice this year, winning the Fountain of Youth, furiously closing to win by a neck. In his last start was second in the Florida Derby over a length behind Tappan Street, who scratched out of the Derby earlier this week. Can be a deep closer so, the No. 18 post doesn’t concern me too much as he can tuck in behind the mass of horses. What does concern me is only two wins in five starts, with only one being a convincing one. I think he runs in the top 3-5 so having him on your ticket would be a smart move. I am just not over the top on the win angle.
No. 17 Sandman (Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 6/1) has run three times this year, all three coming on the Oaklawn Park prep races. He was second in the Southwest, third in the Rebel, and then was the winner of the Arkansas Derby, his most recent start on March 29. He is another deep closer, so the problem of passing 15-17 horses as opposed to 5-6 is something to think about. I loved the run in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby as it was a convincing run in that he took the lead at the top of the lane and then added distance between him and the rest of the field by the time he crossed the line. Has not been on an off-track in a race so there is concern how he will take to the track if it rains Saturday.
No. 9 Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez, 12/1) drew a fair amount of love after his win in the Holy Bull back in February, but a fourth in the Fountain of Youth as the favorite caused some concern, finishing behind Sovereignty and Neoequos who are entered here. He did redeem himself somewhat when he went to Kentucky and won the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 8. That day he bumped hard and rallied, getting up in the final strides to win by a nose. Yet another closer and to his advantage he will sit closer to the pace of the deep closers and may get first run on the pace setters.
B (Not far behind the A runners)
No. 1 Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 20/1) is a perfect case where this horse may never come close to starting at 20/1 again is career. The 2-year-old champ after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He started this year off on Feb. 1 when he won the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita coming off a three-month break. He was then off for two months and set the pace throughout the race before getting overwhelmed in the lane in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing fourth, beaten nine lengths. Now he’s back a month later and has put together a series of good works. It’s obvious Baffert brings his horses ready to run in the Derby. Not happy with the rail draw but Garcia has been up on the horse for the last four starts and will keep the horse in a good spot. I would be thrilled to get 20/1 but I think he will move towards 10/1. On my ticket for sure.
No. 2 Neoequos (Saffie Joseph, Flavien Prat, 30/1) should be getting more respect than he has gotten. The Florida preps were down some this year, but he was only beaten by Sovereignty, River Thames, and Tappan Street in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Tappan Street and River Thames were both in the Derby field but scratched out. He is another speedster and breaks right next to one who likes to run as well. The entire key for this horse and the one next to him on the inside may turn out to be the first quarter of the race.
No. 7 Luxor Café (Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira, 15/1) is the highest regarded entrant of the Japanese contingent. He has won his last four races, two of which were by over five lengths. Of yeah, did I mention the sire is American Pharoah. He looks to be one that comes from off the pace.
No. 16 Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, 30/1) was the Flavor of the Month in January and February at Oaklawn Park as he won the Smarty Jones and the Rebel preps. Those two gave him four straight wins. Expectations tempered a bit when he was third, beaten seven lengths in the Arkansas Derby where he ran even throughout. He did beat Sandman in the Rebel, so the talent level is there. He has gone to lead early and come from off the pace, so it seems he takes what is given to him. His has been solid in the mornings and a big run wouldn’t surprise me.
- Baeza (John Shireffs, Flavien Prat, 12-1) is going to be the wise guy horse, as there were people bemoaning that he wasn’t in the field. But with the late defection of Rodriguez, Baeza finds himself in the Kentucky Derby. Lightly raced as he broke maiden in his third start – he was second to Rodriguez in his second start – his blowout performance in the Santa Anita Derby stamped him as legit. In only his fourth start and first time against winners, he finds himself leading in the lane going head-to-head with the Kentucky Derby favorite. He got caught at the end, losing by less than a length and earning a Beyer of 101, he certainly belongs in the conversation.
C (Can win but needs a lot to go right)
No. 3 Final Gambit (Brad Cox, Luan Machado, 30/1) came out of nowhere to win the JR Steaks prep at 15/1. It was his first start against winners as it took him three starts to break. His deep closing style can work here provided he can get a clean run as he passes what figures to be 18-19 horses. A reach? Sure, but we have seen this before.
No. 5 American Promise (D Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, 30/1) blew doors on the field at the Virginia Derby, winning by over seven lengths at 7-1. That race did come after poor efforts in the Southwest at Oaklawn and the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Was it a case of facing a weaker field or the light finally going off? It would be a great story to win for Lukas and I know a few people that are putting their money here. Personally, I am looking elsewhere.
No. 6 Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire, 30/1) would be the biggest reach to me and he did get beat by Luxor Café twice in the last four starts. The horse packed up, left Japan and made the trip to UAE, winning the UAE Derby to get his spot. If he handles the travel recently, he could give us a great run.
No. 11 Flying Mohawk (Whitworth Beckman, Joseph Ramos, 20/1) had a nice three-race run from last year to the first two starts this year. In the span, he broke maiden, then won a $100,000 optional claimer, followed by a second in the Jeff Ruby Stakes to get his spot here. He comes from off the pace, a style I have always liked for the Derby. He will be surrounded by a lot of talented closers.
No. 12 East Avenue (Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco, 20/1) is one where I am not a big fan. He was ninth in the BC Juvenile last year, then came out and was 10th in the Risen Star. Came out in the Risen Star back on April 8 at only 5-1 so there was some steam on the horse. If you throw those two poor efforts away, he has been strong the other three races. Seriously watch the tote board here. He opens at 20/1 and starts getting bet, take some time to think here.
No. 13 Publisher (Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz, 30/1) makes it almost impossible not to give the horse a shot because of the connections. In his favor is his closing style and that he had a talented pilot. The downside – he’s still a maiden as he didn’t win in four maiden starts before jumping in to graded races. A seventh in the Southwest, followed by a fourth in the Rebel led to his best race, a second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. Except for the Southwest, he has drawn some attention at the betting window. Another one to watch the tote.
No. 14 Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20/1) snuck up on the racing world by winning the Louisiana Derby at almost 8/1. The win came following a third in the Southwest and a fifth in the Rebel. Likes to come from off the pace but does sit closer than most later runners which could give him one of the first shots at the leaders.
No. 15 Render Judgement (Kenny McPeak, Julien Leparoux, 30/1) is one of the best stories of the Derby as Toby Keith was one of the owners before he passed away. He was second in the Virginia Derby, then fifth in the Blue Grass but has only one win – a maiden score back in October. If somehow wins, it would be an emotional winners’ circle.
No. 19 Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, 30/1) found his way here by running second in both the Risen Star, then the Louisiana Derby. He was 43/1 in the Risen Star and 10/1 in the Louisiana Derby. Those were two pretty strong races so he probably deserves a little more respect than he’s getting. Will look to sit mid-pack then make a late run.
No. 20 Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch, Javier Castellano, 30-1) was running well at Tampa Bay Downs, running second in the Sam F. Davis, then winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He took a shot at the Grade I Blue Grass and for three-quarters he was just off the pace before falling apart in the lane and finishing sixth. I think he is better than 30/1 and with a solid rider, he could get a spot in the top five.
Who wins?
I want to try and beat the favorite, using various levels of forecasting – too many horses, the weather, having too many horses in in the lane – all valid points. But the horse has always looked so confident. With Rodriguez scratched, that takes out one big contender.
I am banking – literally – that Journalism shows the class and poise he has been running with throughout his young career. He is in a great post to break out and sit around 10th as he cruises around the track, then turns on the jets in the lane and gets it done to win the Derby for trainer Michael McCarthy.
What are the other plays?
I see Sandman taking the same general route as Journalism and those two will be the ones flying later trying to catch the speedsters with staying power.
I like Citizen Bull to get out as he is starting on the rail, so track position will be key. My hope is he gets out, then relaxes on the front end or just off the pace. Neoquos, the horse right next to him also loves speed so perhaps he can tuck in right behind him. Count on East Avenue being in the mix on the pace side of the race.
I think Luxor Café has to figure in the race. The Japanese horses are getting better all the time and it’s a case of when, not if they win a Derby.
Sovereignty will have a say in the outcome as well with his stalking style and it’s very realistic he gets first run as he may be sitting closer than Journalism and Sandman.
I will also work into my ticket will be Final Gambit. Lightly raced but he closes with a vengeance, reminding me some of Sierra Leone last year.
Baeza – who slid in at the last minute – dueled with Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby before losing less than a length and earned a 101 Beyer.
I think of the early pace, only Citizen Bull will be contention in the final strides.
All that said, here are some plays:
Exacta: 8/1, 3, 7, 17, 18, 21. On a $1 exacta that ticket will only cost you $6. If you want to fudge a bit, say 8,17/1, 3, 7, 8, 17, 18, 21 you are still looking at only $12.
Trifecta: Obviously with more combinations, the wagers jump a bit. The same tickets you are looking at $30 for the first ticket, and $60 for the second ticket.
As for a win bet, the philosophy I have used is whatever I bet to win, I double it on a place bet on the same horse. For instance, a $25 win bet on Journalism also comes with a $50 place bet.
It’s a system I have used for years, and it has saved me numerous times.
Have an amazing Derby Day!!