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Photo credit: Tere Poplin/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders’ Cup
Editor’s note: These previews were finished Wednesday night and do not include any scratches or changes.
By Dennis Miller
The most exciting two days in racing kicks off Friday with the running of the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
The weekend starts with five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday, featuring the “stars of tomorrow,” all 2-year-olds.
BC Juvenile Turf Sprint
(6th race, 2:45 p.m.)
True Love (Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan, 7/2) is the morning-line favorite and with good reason. She has six career starts with three wins and three seconds. He seems to run best either on or near the lead.
Schwarzenegger (Wesley Ward, John Velezquez, 5/1) looks like the best American horse in the field. Was second by a neck inn his debut against straight maidens, then came back and won the Indian Summer on October 5th at Keeneland. The gate will open and he will go. Has only not led at one point of call in his last two starts. A ton of speed here.
Havana Anna (Donnacha O’Brien, Gavin Ryan, 6/1) has hit the board in all six career starts with two wins, three seconds, and a third. She had a nice two-race winning streak three and four back but has run second the last two races. Appears to be another that prefers to be out front.
Cy Fair (George Weaver, Irad Ortiz, 6/1) has to be looked at off her last race alone. She came from off the pace to win a stake at Woodbine and with all the speed signed on here, a late runner will be key.
Lennilu (Patrick Biacone, Luis Saez, 8-1) might be the value play of all the single digit odds runners. Â She has five career starts and four wins. Shipped over from England earlier this year and won a pair of stakes at Gulfstream. This is a big step up but she knows how to win.
BC Juvenile Fillies
(7th race, 3:25 p.m.)
Explora (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 5/2) comes from the right barn when it comes to juvenile runners. Won the debut by four, was second in the Del Mar Debutante, then took the Grade II Oak Leaf at Santa Anita on Oct. 4. She prefers being at the front during the race.
Tommy Jo (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 7/2) was beaten across the line in her last start but was placed first through a disqualification in the Grade I Alcibiades at Keeneland, leaving her with a perfect 3-for-3 record. Does need the lead but won’t far off it.
Percy’s Bar (Ben Colebrook, Luan Machado, 9/2) cross the line first in the Alcibiades but was moved to second for bumping Tommy Jo late. That race was the first time the horse went early after three races of being a closer. With the speed in here, she should sit back and go late.
Battle of Rouge (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 9/2) took out Explora at 9/1 in the Del Mar Debutante with a strong stalking trip and gutsy stretch run. Broke maiden in her second start, beating straight maidens by over six lengths. The workouts for this one have been strong. Possible value play as the “other Baffert,” horse.
Iron Orchard (Danny Gargan, Joel Rosario, 6/1) is an east coast runner if that’s what you prefer. Has a perfect 3-for-3 record and after a pair of front running wins, came from off the pace in the Grade I Frizzette at Aqueduct on Oct. 4
BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
(8th race, 4:05 p.m.)
Precise (Aidan O’Brien, Christophe Soumillion, 6/5) is the overwhelming favorite in this spot and given the connections, she will be tough to beat. She had five starts, with four wins and a second. Looks to sit right off the pace then move late, overpowering the others in the lane. My big concern here will be the shipping. If she handles the trip, this race is over.
Time to Dream (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 5/1) is the top American horse in the field. A closer, she started her run in the Jessamine a little late and was third by a length. A cleaner run here and she could be flying home. Won her other two starts with closing trips.
Ultimate Love (Michael Trombetta, John Velazquez, 8/1) has three wins in three starts but has yet to face this level. Stalks and closes like a champ but has all of one stakes race under her belt.
Brave Deb (Richard Mandella, Marco Demuro, 20/1) is like taking a swing for the fence with this runner. Two starts and two wins – a straight maiden score followed by a win in the Grade III Surfer Girl at Santa Anita on October 5. Likes to run on or near the lead and does have win over the course at Del Mar. Why not take a chance!
BC Juvenile
(9th race, 4:45 p.m.)
Ted Noffey (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 4/5) is the heavy morning line favorite for the top 2-year-old conditioner over the last 20 years. Three starts, three convincing wins, all on the east coast, a bit strange for a Baffert runner. He took the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga by over eight lengths in September, then came back and won the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity October 4 at Keeneland by over two lengths. Now comes out west to take on some other top Baffert runners.
Brant (Bob Baffert, Jose Ortiz, 5/2) has two starts, both at Del Mar and has won both of them. The last start was the Grade I Del Mar Futurity where she bumped at the start but still wired the field. Has been off since Sept. 7 but has an impressive work tab for this one.
Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Irad Ortiz, 5/1) chased Ted Noffey around the track in the Breeders’ Futurity, finishing second, almost three lengths back. Two back he broke against straight maidens, winning by nine lengths.
Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Jose Ortiz, 15/1) has been beaten by Ted Noffey, Blackout Time, and Brant in the last couple of races. Given his youth and right to improve, might be worth a look as he was not blown out in either of those starts. Perhaps consider underneath.
BC Juvenile Turf
(10th race, 5:25 p.m.)
Gstaad (Aidan O’Brien, Christophe Soumillon, 9/5) is the heavy favorite as is usually the case when O’Brien has a horse in a turf race. The interesting thing is that he has run second the last three starts, all three where he was favored. That screams to try and beat this runner.
Hey Nay Nay (John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 8/1) is one where I am going to take a leap. He has won all three starts, the last of which came over the Del Mar turf in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes on Sept. 7. In that start he sat right off the pace, then cleared the field for the win. The other two wins he went out and wired the field.
Argos (Matt Riley, Flavien Prat, 6/1) is coming off a win in the Grade I Summer at Woodbine. In all three starts he has been patient before moving late. He has a pair of wins and a third to show for his career.
Bottas (Miguel Clement, Manny Franco, 6/1) has been favored in both starts and has won both. The last was the Grade II Pilgrim at Aqueduct on Oct. 3. In both starts the horse has come from off the pace and has showed bold runs in the lane to get the wins.
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