We have six races to kick things off on opening day for the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton.
The key for Pleasanton for as long as I can remember – and that goes back to the 1970’s – is to always pay attention to the weather.
The hotter it gets, the faster the front end. Once it gets into the 90s, the leader at the top of the lane usually is in the driver’s seat.
The saying I have used for years is, “first to the top of the lane wins.”
On the flip side, it stays in the 70s or 80s, horses that prefer to come from off the pace seem to have a much better chance to rally for the win.
It’s not a certainty but over nearly 50 years of watching races in Pleasanton, it seems to happen with regularity.
Let’s run through the six races on Friday!
First race (5-1/2 furlongs, 1:45 p.m. post)
1) Alphabetical Order (Sheldon Paldanius trainer, Leonel Camacho-Flores jockey, 2/1) appears to be a major contender here off his last effort, a win at the distance on May 10 at Golden Gate Fields. It was a front-running effort where the horse drew off. A solid work followed the win. It was against non-winners of two races, now has to jump to non-winners of three. Big question is how will he handle the dirt as he has not yet run a race on the surface. 2) Artemus Gordon (Tim McCanna, Assael Espinoza, 4/1) has two career dirt starts and has not hit the board in either. Has only two wins in 17 career starts but the connections are solid and this is not the toughest spot so might be a good value as he has shown speed in the past. 3) Do It for Dave (Terri Eaton, Hugo Herrera, 8/1) has not run since last August on the turf at Santa Rosa. Did break maiden here last year. Does like to come from off the pace which might not be the worst thing as the weather should not be a factor here. Only one win in 11 starts but once again, that came over the track. Had bullet work at Golden Gate Fields earlier in June which is a good thing. Still, this a far cry from running against straight maidens at Del Mar and Santa Anita which is where he was last year. 4) My Bucket List (Manny Badilla, Francisco Duran, 9/5) has two wins in 24 starts. This alone has eight starts, with one win, a pair of seconds, and a show, all at GGF. Has hit the board in four of five starts on the dirt. The connections don’t have a lot of history but have hit at 29 percent. Can’t throw out but can’t endorse on the win end. 5) Catchme At Thelake (Blaine Wright, William Antongeorgi, 7/2) wired the field in his last start June 1 at GGF with the same connections. A step up here but the others have been facing similar. Third start after coming off a 15-month break. First back was nothing, but the second start was the latest. Got the right pilot for a send and fully expect to see this from one of the top barns.
My picks: Little to gain financially from any of the verticals. This is a win on the No. 5 and a single for me in the horizontals.
Second race (6 furlongs, 2:15 p.m. post)
1) Alpine Sermon (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 6/1) showed promise breaking maiden in debut at Golden Gate Fields. Since then he’s had a pair of starts showing little, finishing sixth out of seven, then dead last in a field of eight. One work since the May 27 race and it was nothing special. The connections warrant respect and maybe the horse benefits from the switch to the dirt. The horse also is going from allowance competition to claiming and will meet much easier here. 2) Mr. Big Bucks (Reid France, Alexander Chavez, 8/5) claimed two back, the horse came out with a win in the first start for the connections. Appears to choose to sit off the pace and close strong. Has two wins in five starts this year and both have been off the pace. Has seen some better races this year. 3) Regal Redwood (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 2/1) was fifth and sixth in the last two starts but that was against tougher. He took until his ninth start to break, then jumped into those two tougher races. Did run third here last year in straight maiden competition. I think that this is the easiest start for the horse yet. No. 4) Last Baby (Marcia Stortz, Francisco Monroy, 8/1) is searching for a spot. Started ambitiously last year in straight maiden competition and struggled through six starts. Started coming around in open maiden company and finally broke through April 12 when he wired a field of $12,000 maiden claimers. Came back three weeks later and struggled. Since then, has been on the shelf. Some good works to prepare for the return and the one constant has been the horse always shows speed. Expect him to be on the lead but we must see if there is staying power. 5) Ramathorn (Bill McLean, Luis Manuel Jimenez, 3/1) has five starts this year and has hit the board in five, with a win, a place, and three shows. Always wants the lead and three back he wired the field. In the next two he leaked oil badly finishing a badly beaten seventh, then struggled to run third. Been off a couple weeks and this is an easier spot than the last two. Has no starts in Pleasanton or on the dirt.
My play: The winner will come from the three inside runners. Regal Redwood has the best numbers coming into the race but I can’t help but look at that he was beaten by the No. 5 in his last start. Mr. Big Banks runs well off the pace and the weather may allow for that in this spot. Just not sure how much early speed there is outside of Ramathorn. I will go with a win bet on No. 2, Mr. Big Banks, with the 1,2,3 on my horizontal play.
Third race (5 furlongs, 2:45 p.m. post)
1) Juniors Kitty (Marcelino Trujillo, Adrian Castellanos, 6/1) has one career start and it was nothing to brag about. Broke last in an eight-horse field and gained all of one spot by the finish. There is every reason to expect improvement here in the second start. Can’t really endorse off the one start as I need improvement here. 2) Stylish Dress (Sheldon Paldanius, Irving Orozco, 2/1) is the slight morning line favorite and with good reason. Five starts this year have resulted in three seconds and a third. Though the races have been good, you have to think about getting continually close but not being able to get across the line first. Will be close to the lead. 3) Swift Natalie (Marcia Stortz, Anne Sanguinetti, 5/2) has not had a good run in two starts but the second was an improvement over the first. In the first start she started poorly but did work back into fourth place. On April 27 she broke alertly but then she went backwards, finishing fifth. The two works have been pedestrian but the horse is from a sire that loved the dirt so Pleasanton may be the answer. 4) To Bevy’s (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 8/1) has one start in early May at Santa Anita and was beaten over 16-lengths. Now, ships to be a better barn and a much easier spot. The works since she has been here are nothing special, but the connections make her worth a look at a value price. 5) Maggie’s Faye (Terri Eaton, Francisco Monroy, 3/1) ran in a pair of much tougher maiden races at GGF and did nothing. The question that needs to be answered is – were the first two results because of the fields she was facing or is she not a solid runner. This will provide an answer, but I don’t think she goes off at 3-1. I am thinking it will be more like 8-1 or higher. 6) Street Tiger (Bill McLean, Assael Espinoza, 8/1) does like to hit the board, having done in five of nine career starts. She was third last time out against similar and has shown the ability to set the pace or just sit right off. Every reason to expect this one to be in the mix and if you can get 8-1 be happy.
My play: On paper it looks like there could be some value in here, but the reality is the morning line could get turned upside down by post time. I am liking Street Tiger as she gets back to the dirt where she was second at Santa Rosa last summer at 4-1 in straight maiden company.
Fourth race (5-1/2 furlongs, 3:15 p.m. post)
1) Magicisthemoonlight (Jose Bautista, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 6/1) has two thirds in six starts this year and those came three and four back. Looks to come from off the pace and there should a pace to run at here. Shortens up from three mile starts in a row so we could some interest in sitting just off the pace. 2) Count Asher (Samuel Calvario, Adrian Castellanos, 10/1) is 10-1 for a reason – one win in 20 starts. The running lines give me no reason to expect anything here. 3) Stretch Run (Jorge Maravilla, Hugo Herrera, 7/2) made a return the first week in June from seven months on the shelf. He showed speed early then weakened which makes some sense. Every reason to expect improvement here for a horse that either wants the lead or will sit right off. 4) Titos With a Twist (Arnold Torres, William Antongeorgi, 3/1) will get some love from the fans but has some question marks. Has been facing similar and has not been getting it done, hitting the board once in the last five starts. That came in the last start when he rallied for a second at 31-1 and it came at this distance. After several route efforts, he shortened up and it paid off. Let’s see if the connections can get it done again. 5) Nuestro Engreido (Samuel Calvario, Micha Meeks, 4/1) has not hit the board since December, a streak of five straight races. Does have some experience with the surface, running on dirt eight times and hit the board four times. Been over the Pleasanton surface before, running four times, getting one place and one show. Facing similar recently, not sure there is enough there to warrant 4/1 on the morning line. 6) Elcondor (Jesus Ramos, Epifanio Garcia, 3/1) is another runner I think is though too highly of on the morning line. Has shown speed and perhaps reason enough to get the love but she has faltered late in seven straight races.
My play: This is a who knows what might happen field. No one stands out off the past performances, and you could make a case to eliminate everyone in the race. Watch the tote board and search for a 5/1-6/1 horse as post time nears. Maybe Streth Run falls into that range.
Fifth race (5-1/2 furlongs, 3:45 p.m. post)
1) Queen Molotov (Jamey Thomas, Alexander Chavez, 4/1) has one second in three starts this year and is one of at least three runners that could be in the lead early. Until the last two starts she showed some staying power, so the nice 7-week break she’s been on was much needed. The connections are solid, and this one will have a say in this spot. 2) Iconic Sky (Andy Mathis, Irving Orozco, 8/1) came off a two-month freshener and ran second last time out on May 11. Steps up here but this is solid barn to make the move. Figures to be part of the speed brigade. 3) Honorable Gal (Manuel Badilla, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 5/1) has hit the board in three of six starts this year, running against similar. The last couple have been average efforts and needs to step up here to have a chance to hit the board. 4) Lady Gregory (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 3/1) comes into the race with a second and a first in her last two starts. She has dirt experience as well, winning four of five career dirt starts. Two of those were in Ferndale so take that at face value. Loves to lead and will be one of the pace factors here. 5) Sonoma Dreaming (Isidro Tamayo, William Antongeorgi III, 2/1) is your morning line favorite and is coming off a front running win in her last on March 16 at GGF. Two of her three wins have come on the front end and in the last three when she didn’t have the lead early, she only hit the board once in those three. Wants to control the pace and she’s got the perfect jockey for that. Elegant Sway (Monty Meier, Hugo Herrera, 9/2) has run third, second, and first in her last three starts. This is an optional claimer, and the barn has opted to protect the horse, which is a statement. In her last start she stalked the pace, took the lead at the top of the lane, and kicked away. Not a shock if she wins here but I do think the top two are better.
My play: When I first saw the draw my thought was, which Tamayo horse scratches. Two horses from the same barn with similar running styles makes no sense. So, let’s say this – go with the one that stays in the race. If for some reason both stay, I am playing Sonoma Dreaming.
Sixth race (1 mile, 70 yards. 4:15 p.m. post)
1) My Own Heart (Bill McLean, Assael Espinoza, 12/1) has hit the board in the last seven starts but the lone win was a maiden score four back. Still vs. similar she has been right there in all three starts since the win. Been running two turn races and running just off the pace. 2) Acclaimed Preacher (Andy Mathis, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 5/1) was running well in routes late last year and ran second in a one-mile race two back. Will be a pace factor here as she doesn’t look to lead early but doesn’t lose early contact. 3) Warren’s Wild Ride (Jeff Bonde, William Antongeorgi III, 4-1) is one of two Pastime Racing LLC’s entered here. She finished fourth, beaten 12 lengths in her last race on May 17 at Santa Anita. One show in five starts this year but has been facing better and fits nicely into this spot. Did fire off a bullet work at Santa Anita but will be facing two turns for the first time. 4) Super Ellie (Marcia Stortz, Frank Alvarado, 2-1) is the other Pastime runner and is coming off a second at Golden Gate in her last start. She’s been claimed in her last three races, always a positive sign and I would not be surprised to see it happen out of this race. One who likes to come off the pace, there will be some pace to run at here. 5) Outrageous (O J Jauregui, Alexander Chavez, 7/2) is the second choice on the morning line and is coming off a maiden score on May 27 at GGF. The race was a sprint and now she’s back to two turns which she has done twice before and both times she ran fourth. Likes to be close to the pace. Your Royal Flyness (Faith Taylor, Anne Sanguinetti, 6/1) won here last year in an $8,000 maiden race. Ran fourth in a route in August, then went to the bench until April 28th of this year and was fourth in a sprint. Has never shown speed in all four starts and has only been able to close once – the maiden score here. 7) Geejaytee (Tim Bellasis, Hugo Herrera, 8/1) rounds out the last race of the day. Broke maiden on the turf two back, the ran second in a mile race, also on the turf at GGF. The horse was claimed from a high-profile barn and comes back to the dirt where the horse is 0-for-2 career wise. Has one win in 10 starts.
My play: Seeing that my wife and I are involved in the Pastime Racing LLC, that is where my money has to go. I like Super Ellie for the win as I am not sure how Warren’s Wild Ride will handle the distance. Let’s put the two in an exacta box as well. Outside of my two, Outrageous rates a long look.