Alameda County Fair Horse Racing Picks – Friday, June 28
First race (5-1/2 furlongs, maiden claiming, 1:45 p.m.)
Harney Lane (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 9/5) has a lone start, August of last year when she ran in straight maiden company at Del Mar at one mile on the turf. There has been a series of solid works for the new barn that hits at 33 percent in first start for the barn. Questions are obviously is she ready and will she handle the dirt. Ammara (Gloria Haley, Huge Herrera, 6/1) has three starts this year with one third to show for it. Did show speed in the last start and did hold on to finish third. Will need some speed to stay in contention here. Moon Rush (Steve Sherman, William Antongeorgi, 5/2) is making her debut for a barn that hits at 29 percent in debuts. Had bullet work over the track but it was a small sample size. Expect to see speed with these connections. Channel of Love (Steve Sherman, Assael Espinoza, 3/1) is another runner making a debut for the Sherman barn. Worked in tandem with stablemate for that bullet work over the track. I expect this one to sit off the pace. Breville (Gloria Haley, Cristobal Herrera, 9/2) is 0-for-4 hitting the board this year and really hasn’t come close. Has shown speed in most starts but then backs up. Honestly can see much happening here.
My play: With no idea what to expect from the rail horse, I have to lean with one of the first-timers from the Steve Sherman barn. I see if speed holds, it will be Moon Rush, if not, then look for Channel of Love to come from off the pace. 3-4-1.
Second race (One mile-70 yards, claiming, 2:15 p.m.)
Wrong Direction (Francisco Rodriguez, Irving Orozco, 8/5) sees the barn making the first start at Pleasanton. Two back the horse broke maiden and returned in an optional claimer where he was claimed. Barn has one “off the claim” race and it was a $21 winner. Showed a semblance of speed in the last two starts. This does not look like the toughest spot. Gato de Vegas (Angelos Tokes, Hugo Herrera, 2/1) also broke two back as the favorite. Stepped into a protective race but ran evenly and never in contention. Now drops into open claiming. Showed minor speed three back but nothing in either of the last two. It Aint Over (Felix Rodan, Santos Rivera, 4/1) is coming off a badly beaten 10th in his last start. In four starts this year has one third and that came three back. In a couple of starts has showing a smattering of speed but nothing came of it. Ran well last year but has yet to impress this year. Did have a strong work over the track on June 23. Regal Redwood (Isidro Tamayo, Assael Espinoza, 6/1) ran here on opening day, was well bet, then disappointed over the track. Goes from a sprint to a route race, and the fact a good barn is wheeling the horse back may say something. Brother O’Brien (Tim McCanna, Frank Alvardo, 5/1) is coming off a disappointing turf start on June 2. Before then, the synthetic starts produced a win, second, and third the last three starts before then. With nothing jumping off the page, this one is worth watching. Has the perfect post to get a stalking spot.
My play: I really think Brother O’Brien will be the horse to beat here as I think the form sets up for him to be competitive. 5-4-1.
Third race (6 furlongs, claiming, 2:45 p.m.)
Strength of Autism (Isidro Tamayo, Irving Orozco, 8/1) comes into this one from a break since October of last year. Last year and the year before he had been facing much tougher until his last two starts. Last year he did hit the board in four of seven starts this year. Barn does hit at 24 percent off this long a break, so anything is possible. Has hit the board in both starts over the Pleasanton track. Has a couple works over the track he has shown to favor. My Dominator (Sergio Perez, Adrian Castellanos, 3/1) was second here opening weekend, using a stalking style to get up and finish two lengths of the winner. In addition to the second the first week, has a win over the track in his past. Major Tom (Leobardo Rivera, Cristobal Herrera, 6/1) was fifth in the race My Dominator was second. In the start he went a little backwards at every point of call. Has shown speed in a lot of his 17 starts that produced three wins and six seconds. Has two starts in Pleasanton, hitting the board in neither. Half Throttle (Quentin Miller, Micah Meeks, 4/1) has one win in eight starts this year, with it coming with that coming two back at Emerald Downs. Prefers to come from off the pace but except for the recent win it hasn’t been working too well. My Bucket List (Manuel Badilla, Francisco Duran, 9/2) won here on opening day, using a stalking trip he took control at the top of the lane and brought it home. A repeat of the form could work well today. Overall, has hit the board in five of nine starts this year. Crowning Gold (Andy Mathis, Assael Espinoza, 2/1) has been facing much tougher but doing nothing. Has 13 career starts on the dirt, hitting the board seven times. Ships up from Northern California and changes to a barn that wins 18 percent of the time with that move. Have to consider.
My play: My Bucket List is the one to beat. A repeat of last would get it done as the weather should be similar and a stalking style is perfect. 5-6-2.
Fourth race (5-1/2 furlongs, claiming, 3:15 p.m.)
Gerlach’s (D Wayne Baker, Epifanio Garcia, 5/1) came back after being off since early August and chased the lead before fading late and finishing sixth. Every reason to expect better here and a big work June 22 over the track shows the horse is ready to run. Has never had front end speed but does have the ability to sit close. Honeymoonz Over (D Wayne Baker, William Antongeorgi, 3/1) has two wins and a third from five starts this year. Has been running against much better and running decent. Is coming off a horrible effort on the turf and comes to a Pleasanton track where he has a win and a place in six starts. Established (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 4/1) has plenty of dirt experience in Southern California, often facing much better than this group. Shipped up before last, dropped, and ran second to another one starting here. Could be a factor. Evenerevenworse (Bill McLean, Assael Espinoza, 2/1) is a case of what a difference a year makes. This time last year, this horse was prepping for the Oak Tree Sprint, a race where he ran second here. Now running for a $16,000 tag. Only has hit the board once in four starts here, but it was against much tougher and he still has that blazing front end speed. Deserves a long look. Our Bold Prince (Eduardo Rich, Frank Alvardo, 7/2) has been a solid runner for years now, hitting the board in 24 of 50 career starts. Dropped to a low level and scored his last start at GGF on June 9. Now takes a slight bump up and will look to stalk the speed. Runkerry (Gloria Haley, Hugo Herrera, 15/1) has had a small break, last running March 2. The barn hits only .03 percent with that length of a break but this is a drop-in class. Can have speed and could be a pace factor here.
My play: If Evenerevenworse is half the horse he was last summer, he wins this. If there’s a duel up front, then look for Our Bold Prince to pick off some in the lane. 4-5-2.
Fifth race (6 furlongs, optional claimer, )
Supernal (Michael Lenzini, Alejandro Gomez, 3/1) has hit the board in all five career starts. That includes three wins, a place, and a show. Has been climbing the ranks and is protected here. Likes to sit just off the pace and get a run in the lane. King and Country (Tim McCanna, William Antongeorgi, 5/1) ran on June 2, won, and now steps up protected as he takes on winners for the first time. Pretty much wired the field in that first start and to see him sent here. Jockey takes a mount elsewhere but picks up a good speed jock. Naftis (Steve Specht, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 4/1) has been on or near the lead throughout his four starts that has netted a win, a place, and a show. Solid work for this spot. Thirsty Thursday (Reid France, Assael Espinoza, 5/1) ships up from Southern California for this spot. Two back was a big win, surging in the lane to come from fifth to first. Has shown speed in other starts so will be interesting to see the form he goes with her. Tiger in My Tank (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 2/1) got a win in the first start for the barn that checks in at 28 percent for winning last start. Jockey the first call for the barn so you have to think this is the better of the two Specht horses entered. Will either have the lead or be right there. Party With Paddy (Isidro Tamayo, Hugo Herrera, 8/1) could be the pace setter as he is not shy about wanting the lead. He has a win and three seconds in five career starts. In the last start he had the lead early and faded to fourth in his first start against winners. Expect a better effort here.
My play: I want to see how the track is playing before locking in on a bet. If it’s fair, Supernal could be the one to beat. I am going to play it safe and go with Tiger in My Tank as I think the horse loves where he is now. 5-1-2.
Sixth race (6 furlongs, maiden, 4:15 p.m.)
Hot Goblin (Miguel Ramirez, Hugo Herrera, 6/1) had run third three times in eight career starts. Has not shown speed and breaking from the rail he will need some help. Fincairn (Gloria Haley, Irving Orozco, 10/1) has yet to hit the board in six career starts. Has been on the shelf since April 20 after a fifth, beaten 10 lengths on the turf. The last two works have earned bullets, with the last coming June 23 over the track, posting the best work of 34 that day. Hartman (Victor Trujillo, Luis Miguel Jimenez Aburto, 9/2) has shown nothing in two starts, and if anything, the first start was better. Had two works over the track and they were pretty pedestrian. Majestic Cotton (Jamey Thomas, William Antongeorgi, 4/1) was on the shelf almost a year, coming back to run fifth in a turf race at GGF on May 26. The barn is 2-for-10 with the second after a break. Should improve here and drops from straight maiden to open maiden. Mark Loves Ann (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Cristobal Herrera, 2/1) had an interesting debut, starting fourth, then taking the lead at the top of the lane before finishing third. The barn hits at 25 percent for maiden second start. Apple Warrior (Samuel Calvario, Santos Rivera, 8/1) came back in early June after a 9-month break and ran second after setting the early pace. Has always shown speed and should here again as well. Ford Flyer (Tim McCanna, Assael Espinoza, 5/2) ducked in and lost the rider in the last start. He was coming off a solid debut where he finished by a neck. Has had a couple works over the track and I look for a big one here.
My play: I think I will go outside to Ford Flyer in this spot. Impressive debut nearly saw a win and now gets another shot if he gets out clean and doesn’t lose the rider as he did last start. Gets back the jockey up for the debut. 7-5-6.