Photo courtesy of Darren Carroll/PGA of America
It has been over a year since the last golf major has been played, but that all goes away Thursday with the beginning of the 102nd PGA Championship at Harding Park in San Francisco.
Originally scheduled in May, what has turned out to be the first of the three majors this year tees off at 7 a.m. with the first threesome.
Brooks Koepka has won the last two PGA’s and will be looking to be the first golfer to win three straight since 1926. It would also be the first time the feat would be accomplished in the stroke play format, something the PGA went to in 1958.
But it will be a tall order for Koepke as you could make a case for 10-11 players to win this week.
The course will play shorter than most major venues, but the heavy coastal air will cut back on ball carry and the tree-lined course seems to place a demand on accuracy. But this is the era of golf, one where the object seems to be to hit the ball as far as you can, putting a shorter iron in your hand for the approach.
Players like Bryson DeChambeau have bulked up to get extra distance off the tee. Once it was 300-yard drives that set the bar, but that number has jumped to at least 320 yards now.
With the rough longer than a normal PGA Tour event and inconsistent, the approach would seem to be one of caution. And for sure, some are taking it that way.
“I mean, the golf course for the most part is right in front of you,” said Dustin Johnson. “Obviously, they give a couple holes, 16 and 7, I think, where depending on the wind, could be drivable. But it can’t really be off the tee — you can’t be too aggressive. You just hit whatever line you can take to get it in the fairway.”
Rory McIlroy is one of the longest and most accurate drivers in the game and he has been going back and forth about how to play Harding Park.
“I think length is certainly an advantage. It’s a long golf course anyway. It’s playing even longer because of the conditions. It’s a long golf course, especially with the marine layer coming in, the moisture keeps it sort of — there’s not much roll on the fairways,” said McIlroy. Most of the time you’ve got driver in your hand off the tee and you are trying to get it down there as far as you can. “
Tony Finau is another big hitter and his approach this week is simple.
“I think distance is a big key this week, and you know, you mentioned the rough, we talked about the rough. You’ve got to hit the fairways,” said Finau. “But if I am going to miss a fairway, I want to miss it as far up as I can to give myself a chance to still hit the green.”
How does the week play out? When I look at a major, it seems like I can narrow it down to 3-4 players that have a shot to win. This week every time I tried to stop my list, I had to add another.
I have gotten to 11 and there are players I have left off the list that I wouldn’t be shocked if they won. Let us take a look at my top contenders.
Brooks Koepka: The man just has the game in the majors winning the U.S. Open two straight years and the PGA twice in a row. He is strong, punishes the ball and will have short irons in his hands for approaches. His game seems to be rounding into shape for this and he comes in confident.
Rory McIlroy: One of the best total drivers of the golf ball. He hits it long and finds fairways. He was playing as well as anyone before the pandemic and now looks close to getting it back. If he putts well this week, everyone else could be playing for second.
Justin Thomas: It’s a lot to ask to win two tournaments in a row and so Thomas’ win the WGC tournament last week may put him a bit behind the eight ball. But this isn’t any normal tournament. It’s the PGA and he’s got the game to be there at the end come Sunday. One of the more confident players on the tour.
Bryson DeChambeau: The biggest transformation of any player in the field. Known for his scientific approach to the game, DeChambeau used the down time during COVID to live in the weight room In went David Bannon and out came the Hulk. Living on hitting the ball as far as possible and then getting home from there. One of the players that could over-power Harding.
Tiger Woods: Honestly find it hard to leave Tiger off any list of contenders when it is a major. While it is true, he hasn’t played a lot of tournament golf recently, of there is one player than contend after time off, it’s Tiger. Throw in that he has played the course twice in professional competition and he has exceled twice. There is no smarter player in the game and Tiger doesn’t enter a tournament without the feeling he can win.
Webb Simpson: It just seems like the kind of tournament where he will do well. As if he needed any inspiration, he gaze across the lake from Harding and get a look at the Olympic Club, a site where he won the U.S. Open. Got the game and the brain to make a run.
Tony Finau: Finau is a player that others respect for his game. With most it is when, not if he will win a major. Great hands on his pass through the ball and one that hits it a long way. Got to think he is a top 10 player here when Sunday comes around.
Xander Schauffele: He was the flavor of the month this time last year and while he is a bit off the front burner, Schauffele has got the total package to contend in any major. He has been in the top 20 in his last four starts, so the game is there.
Jon Rahm: Had the No. 1 ranking in the world for all of one week before Thomas took it back. One thing I love about Rahm’s game is his Sunday play. In his last two starts he has shot a 64 and a 66. If he is close on Sunday, look for the fiery Spaniard to make a run. I love the fact he is paired with countryman Sergio Garcia and good friend Phil Mickelson in the first two rounds.
Gary Woodland: Won the U.S. Open last year just a couple hours south a Pebble Beach. Arguably the best overall athlete on the tour, Woodland was the runner-up in the Match-Play event at Harding in 2015. Can hit it long with the best of them but lost in is athleticism is his finesse around the greens.
Others that have a shot
This is the list I could go on and on about. Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson are all players that could be standing tall come Sunday evening.
Day has always had the talent, but it just seems to me he has a tough time finishing in big moments. Fowler is one of my favorites and is one of the best putters in the game, so if the tee to green game is there, he could win it. Morikawa was making a run at Woods’ consecutive cuts run and is the Flavor of the Month. Played his college ball at Cal and is certainly familiar with Harding, although he would be the first to admit the PGA course is unlike it has been in the past. Spieth is shooting for a career Grand Slam and is a guy that is easy to root for. He’s close but I just don’t think it is all there yet. Of all things, it has been the flat stick – a club that helped him three majors – that has been inconsistent. DJ can always win with the talent and the Woodland type athleticism, but it just does not seem to be all there.
So, who wins?
At the end of the day, I think it comes down to four players – Koepka, Thomas, DeChambeau, and Woods. Koepka seems to just live for these situations and his preparation has him peaking at the perfect time, so he must be my pick to win his third straight. It’s going to a lot of fun to watch DeChambeau bomb off the tee and if he finds fairways he will be playing late on Sunday. Woods? It’s Tiger and it’s a major, enough said. Finally. Thomas. Love the swagger and the game. Fearless on the course, he is going to be ready to battle from start to finish.
By Dennis Miller