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The Week 6 NFL lineup includes what might be the most anticipated game of the season to date when the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) visit the New England Patriots (3-2) on Sunday Night Football. Las Vegas bookmakers are anticipating it to be the most heavily bet on game of the season so far.
New England opened up as a 3.5-point home favorite and that line hasn’t budged as of Wednesday afternoon, with both sides attracting near-equal action. The posted over/under of 58 has been bet up to 59 or even 59.5 at some sports books, however. If that sounds like an extraordinarily high total for an NFL game, that’s because it is!
Since 2003 there has been exactly one regular season NFL game with a total higher than 59 points and that was way back in 2004 when the Chiefs and Oakland Raiders saw the closing over/under go off at 60 points for their Christmas Day clash. Kansas City won that game 31-30, allowing OVER bettors to cash by a single point.
There have been two playoffs games (a Lions-Saints Wild Card game in January 2012 and the Falcons-Packers NFC Championship Game in January of 2017) that closed with totals of 59.5. The Saints won 45-28, while the Falcons won 44-21, meaning outrageously high NFL over/unders have a good track record of getting there for the OVER players.
Of course the outcome of the game itself will be even more important than how the over/under fares. Currently the Patriots and Chiefs are tied for the second shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (each at +600), behind only the Los Angeles Rams (+175) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
While Kansas City and the Rams are the only unbeaten teams left in the NFL, it is the Chiefs who have the distinction of holding the only perfect record against the spread (5-0) this season. After a shaky start that saw them go 1-2 both straight up and against the spread (ATS), New England has scored 38 points in back-to-back wins and covers against Miami and Indianapolis to reassert itself as an AFC powerhouse.
The NFL weekend kicks off Thursday Night with an NFC East showdown between two teams desperate for a win. White the New York Giants improved to 2-3 ATS by hanging tough at Carolina last Sunday, they lost the game on a 63-yard field goal at the buzzer to drop to 1-4 straight up. If the Giants have any chance of climbing back into the division race a home win against floundering Philadelphia (2-3 straight up, 1-4 ATS) seems a must. Falling to 1-5 would end any realistic playoff chances New York might have this season.
The Eagles opened as 2.5-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -3, where the line has stayed steady. The over/under opened at 45 points but has been bet down a full point to 44 as of Wednesday. Some interesting trends (you can see them all on our NFL trends page) include the Giants having gone UNDER in 9 of their last 12 games overall, despite last week’s 33-31 loss at Carolina which sailed well over the total.
New York hasn’t handled success well. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS cover. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 Thursday Night games and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against NFC East competition. But the Eagles are 0-4 in their last 4 games as road favorites, which is a spot they find themselves in again Thursday.
Another top divisional battle on this weekend’s docket has the surprising Cincinnati Bengals (4-1 SU and ATS) hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS). Pittsburgh seems to have found itself after a 41-17 home demolition of Atlanta last week, but the Bengals are still listed as slight 2.5-point favorites with an over/under of 53 points.
For those who like to play home underdogs (which are cashing to the tune of a 14-7 record ATS so far this season), the Giants are joined in that category this week by Cleveland (+1 vs. Chargers), Miami (+3 vs. Bears), Denver (+7 vs. Rams), Dallas (+3 vs. Jacksonville) and the Titans (+3 vs. Baltimore).
The weekend closes out with a less than marquee match-up when the San Francisco 49ers (1-4 SU and ATS) visit the Green Bay Packers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) on Monday Night Football. Green Bay opened as 9.5-point favorites with an over/under of 46.5 and neither number has budged all week.
The OVER is 22-6 in Green Bay’s last 28 games overall and 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4. The 49ers come in riding an 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 Monday Night appearances, but it will take a brave soul to back C.J. Beathard on the road in a quarterback match-up against Aaron Rodgers.
By Kent Elola