The strongest Kentucky Derby prep of the season takes place Saturday at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans with the running of the Louisiana Derby.
The race is set for the 12th on the Fair Grounds card and has a 3:42 p.m. PDT post.
Here is a run through the field in post order for the race which carries qualifying points of 100-50-25-15-10.
- John Hancock (Brad Cox, Flavian Prat, 7/2) can’t do much more than he has so far as he’s run twice and won twice including the Sam Davis prep at Tampa Bay Downs. A big step up here but it does seem like the sky might be the limit here. A win here and he has to be considered among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
- Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, 8/1) won his debut and followed with a couple of seconds. In the last he was second in the Risen Star at 43/1. Which is an accurate description of the horse? A longshot that shocked with a big run in a prep and will revert back – or one that snuck under the radar in the last race and should have been much better bet? He will chose a stalking style here.
- Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 8/1) disappointed in the Risen Star never showing much while running and finishing fifth. Before then he had been hitting the board in some good races. It would not surprise me if the horse is in the thick of things in the lane.
- Yinzer (Steve Asmussen, Ben Curtis/ 12/1) finally broke maiden in his fourth start, all against straight maiden company. The last three starts gave been at the Fair Grounds for the $1 million purchase horse. Does have early speed but until the last start the staying power was missing. Last start he turned in his best start and got the win by two lengths at 11/1. This will be the biggest start to date as the corrections are going to watch this with a keen eye in regards to their ROI.
- Caldera (D Wayne Lukas, Tyler Gaffalione, 5/1) came within a head of winning the Sunland Derby on Feb. 16. Getaway Car – the winner – came back and was fourth in the Virginia Derby last weekend, a much softer spot than this one. Caldera tracked the winner throughout the race and actually took the lead in the lane but got caught in the final strides. A pair of big works for this spot and will be well bet but there a lot of red flags for me.
- Built (Wayne Catalano, Jose Ortiz, 4/1) ran in the Gun Runner, Lecomte, and Risen Star, the three preps for this race and was first, second, and third. There is every reason to expect this guy to be in the hunt when they turn for him.
- Vassimo (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 12/1) was fourth in the Risen Star with different type of trip. He started well, fell back off the pace, then rallied late but was passing tiring horses as he was still beaten 12 lengths. Not sure what to expect but these connections are better bet than the morning line indicates. Watch the tote for clues and betting late may be the smart call here.
- Furio (Joe Sharp, Luis Saez, 12/1) three starts have produced a third, win, and second. The last of which was a $100,000 optional claimer at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 17. That start was the first time around two turns and it was a promising effort for a runner that likes to be on or near the lead.
- Instant Replay (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 6/1) was okay but not great through his first four starts and went to the shelf for two months following a fourth in a $125,000 optional claimer on Dec. 13. Came back after two months and looked like a new horse crushing an optional claiming field by five on Feb. 17 over the Fair Grounds track as the betting favorite. Comes out here in his first stake effort for a well-respected trio of connections. An interesting horse.
- Hypnus (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez, 10/1) won at first asking, looking strong in the process over this track at 16/1. Shipped to Oaklawn for the Rebel and had a horrible trip to finish seventh in the race at 16/1. Now he comes back home to try to right the ship and make a run at the Kentucky Derby.