There will be eight horses going to post today in the Pleasanton Mile, the fourth biggest race in all of America on Sunday, as the final stakes race of the 2024 Alameda County Fair takes place.
The one-mile and 70-yard race is the eighth on the Pleasanton card and is scheduled for a 5:15 p.m. post time.
Last year in its inaugural race, the Pleasanton Mile was the richest race in the United States that day. This time it will be No. 4, but it will be the richest race west of Delaware as the top three races of the day take place at Delaware Park in Wilmington, Delaware.
There is the Grade II $500,000 Delaware Handicap, the Grade III $250,000 Robert J. Dick, and the $175,000 Battery Park taking place.
The rest of the nation belongs to Northern California’s newest host track as Pleasanton takes center stage.
Three Southern California invaders will come north to battle five Northern California runners for the second title of the Pleasanton Mile.
Last year it was the Doug O’Neill shipper Katonah beating out NorCal’s I’mgonnabesomebody, trained by Billy McLean to take the title.
Il Bellator, the third-place horse last year, is back to take a shot at the top prize.
Who wins it this year? Here is a run through the field in postposition order.
1) Mixto (Doug O’Neill, Antonio Fresu, 5/2): He has been a graded stakes running machine in the last five races, running and running well in a Grade I, three Grade II’s, and a Grade III. The lone win in 12 career starts was a straight maiden win but there are four shows, and a place to go with the win. He was second in the Grade II San Antonio, third in the Grade II San Pasquel, fifth in the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, third in the Grade II California, and a fifth in the Grade II Gold Cup. He’s had a break since May 27, with strong works that set up a horse that has speed and will break from the rail on a speed favoring track.
2) Il Bellator (Jose Bautista, Alejandro Gomez, 5/1): Was the third-place horse in this race last year, going off at 5/2. Was fifth in the Grade III San Francisco Mile in April on the turf at GGF. Next up was a win in a $62,000 optional claimer at one mile, also at GGF. Only has three of 17 starts on the dirt, but after last year, he showed he can take to the track in Pleasanton. The past class is huge and can be a threat in the lane.
3) Lammas (Manuel Badilla, Irving Orozco, 7/2): Has been off since April 27 and has only two dirt starts under his belt, neither of which did he hit the board. He won three of four starts this year at GGF, including the Grade III San Francisco Mile on the turf. He has absolutely lit up the mornings in Pleasanton, posting a bullet work for the best of 45 works on June 30. Will have a pace to run at and offers a legitimate closing threat.
4) Brazenly (Dan Azcarate, Erick Garcia, 20/1): He started the year running in $20,000 open claimers at Santa Anita and has moved up to as rich as $80,000 optional claimers. The past class is far lower than every other horse entered here, and he has not had a win in 21 two-turn starts.
5) Piroli (Michael McCarthy, Jeremy Laprida, 3/1): He ended 2023 running in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Grade I Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Was beaten badly in both, finishing 7th beaten 10 lengths at Del Mar, then eighth, beaten 33 lengths when he was eased at Santa Anita. After going to the shelf, he returned May 4 at Santa Anita and ran an even fourth in an $80,000 optional claimer. Now after two months off he ships north with a solid and strong series of works at Santa Anita.
6) Zues’ War (Tim McCanna, Assael Espinoza, 8/1): The horse hails from one of the top barns in the north. He has a win and a place in five starts this year and is coming off a fourth in an optional claimer, finishing behind of horse entered here. Did venture south for the $101,000 Kona Gold at Santa Anita and did beat half the field in finishing fourth in a race won by The Chosen Vron. After a series of races where he came from off the pace, he showed speed last time.
7) Prince Abu Dhabi (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 6/1): Finished behind Zeus’ War in the Kona Gold but then got the better of things in the optional claimer in June at GGF. Also likes to come off the dirt and has a win and a third in three dirt starts. Back-to-back big works over the track on June 14 and June 21 before closing preparation out with a maintenance work.
8) Freeport Joe (Gloria Haley, Frank Alvarado, 12/1): Is a horse that raced April 27 in the San Francisco Mile, finishing seventh. In fact, he has finished behind Lammas in the last three starts, although two back he did finish second at 7/1. Now 7-years-old the horse has seen better days but does seem to have the ability to still put a big one together. Some solid works over the Pleasanton trap.
My play: I can see a scenario where Mixto gets an easy lead breaking from the rail and the rest of the field will have to play hell to catch him. I can also see a scenario where one or two other horses go with Mixto and perhaps a speed duel sets up a closer. So, if that happens, who benefits? Il Bellator, if ready and with those works sure looks like he is and can get that perfect stalking trip to have first run when they turn for home. Lammas is certainly capable of pulling off the win with the exact same trip. In fact, it will be interesting to see who gets the first run in the lane. Piroli is tough for me to figure out as I do not know what to expect tomorrow – speed or stalking. 1-3-2.