Alameda County Fair Horse Racing Picks
Sunday, June 16
First race (1 mile and 70 yards, 1:45 p.m.)
1) Smile and Profile (Tim McCanna trainer, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, ) has four starts this year and has hit the board in all four with two wins, a second, and a third. The barn is protecting the horse for the first time since straight maiden races in January of 2023. Has gone two turns the last three starts, with the most recent on the GGF turf course. Candy On Top (Bill McLean, Alexander Chavez, ) is 1-for-25 on the win end but has hit the board nine other times. The last three starts have not been impressive and she was beaten by others who are entered here. Magic Chrome (Jamey Thomas, Assael Espinoza, ) has a good year going, hitting the board in four of five starts. The last three have been solid, finishing first, second, and third. The horse likes to sit just off the pace and make a run when they turn from home. Lady Good Trouble (Samuel Calvario, Santos Rivera, ) had her lone win four back in a straight maiden race. Has been running vs. better but the results have been pretty pedestrian. Has shown some speed and that may come in handy today. Mastery Kat (Jamey Thomas, William Antongeorgi III, ) has been rock solid as of late with a win sandwiched by a pair of seconds in her last three starts. Likes to come from off the pace and it looks like there may be some speed to ensure an honest pace.
My play: Mastery Kat has put together a nice series of races and seems a touch better than Smile and Profile. The win money will be with Mastery Kat but will use both in the horizontal exotics.
Second race (1-1/16 miles, 2:15 p.m.)
El Joy (Isidro Tamayo, Irving Orozco, ) has been answering the bell in all seven starts this year, save for a sixth two back. Other than that he has two wins, two places, and two shows. Two of the recent starts have been on the turf, but he does have a pair of wins on the dirt, including one here in Pleasanton. Supermazel (Steve Sherman, Alexander Chavez, ) will be making its second start for the barn. In his debut effort for Sherman, he ran a solid second closing from off the pace and just missing by a neck. Has hit the board in both career dirt starts. Union Wave (Tim Bellasis, Hugo Herrera, ) has hit the board in five of seven starts this year, but those two misses have come in the last two starts, finishing 8th over the main track and 5th on the turf at Golden Gate Fields. Does have three starts on a dirt track with one third to show for the efforts. Honos Man (Reid France, Assael Espinoza, ) is a runner that loves the Pleasanton track. He has four career starts, with two wins, a second, and a third. He is far better on the dirt than they synthetic track. He has 13 career starts on dirt and has hit the board in 10 of those. Will come from off the pace and be flying late. No Secret (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, ) is coming off two turf races where he finished third, then second. Solid year with four board appearances in seven starts. Two career starts on the dirt with one win.
My play: For me itās always been about horses for courses and Honos Man fits that here in Pleasanton. He loves the track and has always run well here.
Third race (5-1/2 furlongs, 2:45 p.m.)
Matchless (Felix Rodan, Adrian Castellanos, ) has six starts this and has run third three times. Does have four starts on dirt, having run second twice, and third once. Does not go to the lead and has to come from behind to have a shot. Shout It Out (Kelly Bainum, Adrian Castellanos, ) is a 6-year-old that has 41 career starts and she has hit the board 20 times. This has been a spotty year having one second in five starts. Does come from off the pace which could be tough at this distance. Lila At the Beach (Jamey Thomas, Alexander Chavez, ) had a nice couple of races earlier this year, running second in back to back starts. But the two races since then have been unproductive, finishing fifth and fourth, only beating one horse in each start. Has shown early speed but been backing up last two. Smooth as Silk (Gary Greiner, Santos Rivera, ) has two thirds in seven starts this year and lost his rider in the last race. Been facing similar with no success and now goes to dirt where he is 0-for-3. A Dime for Me (Isidro Tamayo, Irving Orozco, ) has been facing better and has finished third twice in four starts this year. This is the easiest spot she has been in, in some time so she must show something today. Stateforest (Samuel Calvario, Cantalino Martinez, ) has been off eight months and comes to a new barn. Has decent dirt form for this spot, with two wins, a place, and two shows in eight career efforts.
My play: Nothing is jumping off the page so I will go with A Dime for Me in that she is seeing the lowest level in some time. There were some decent efforts against much better so there is reason for optimism.
Fourth race (5 furlongs, maiden claiming, 3:15 p.m. post)
Reef City (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza,6/1) has had a solid campaign this year with five board hits in seven starts including three straight second place runs. Key concern is that he has led only three times at any call in a race in the last 12 starts. Liberty Wolf (Marcia Stortz, Leonel Camacho-Flores, 12/1) has been off since July 9 of last year when he finished eighth, 39-lengths back. Has hit the board five times in 12 starts but he may need a race and will be better when he runs here later in the meet. Elmer John (Sergio Ledezma, Frank Alvarado, 3/1) only has one start and was fifth. Not sure if the morning line reflects his potential talent or is more about the other horses entered. Six Hot Grands (Marcia Stortz, Francisco Monroy, 7/2) has had eight starts and has yet to hit the board. Has continued to drop down the maiden ladder and might be looking forward to getting on the dirt. Tavernelle (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 2/1) has had three starts this year and got better in each. In the last start he was third after pushing the pace early. Did run twice on the dirt last year up north and was last in both races. Tempting Prospect (Sheldon Paldanius, William Antongeorgi III, 4/1) is making his first start for a barn with a small sample size of debuts. The works have been consistent and decent.
Fifth race (1 mile-70 yards, claiming, 3:45 p.m.
Wellswort (Isidro Tamayo, Willam Antongeorgi III, 7/2) is a strong one here as he goes from two turf races to the dirt, a move the barn hits at 23 percent. Will come from off the pace so if gets some pace to run at, he will be tough. Thanks Maggio (Gary Greiner, Leonel Camacho-Flores, 9/2) has run four in a row on the turf, the last of which was a win. Now switches to the dirt where he is 0-for-4. Has shown some speed in the past which could help today. Upstart Yankee (Tim McCanna, Luis Manuel Jimenez Aburto, 4/1) looks solid dropping into this spot. Last two were on the turf now comes to the dirt for a barn that hits at 21 percent with the move. Last win came at this level in early March. Likes to sit off the pace but has gone on or near the lead a couple of times. Azure Star (Jose Bautista, Alejandro Gomez, 5/2) looks to be the speed horse here as he has led at the first two points of call in his last 10 starts. Has three starts where the speed held, most notably two back. Has the potential to get an easy lead here and take them wire to wire. Rich Gold (Isidro Tamayo, Assael Espinoza, 4/1) has the best recent form coming in with a win and two seconds making up the last three starts. Will need an honest pace to run at and I am not sure he will get that here. Western Cape (Quentin Miller, Cristobal Herrera, 6/1) has not hit the board in six starts this season but does have 10 dirt starts in his career. Donāt like the recent form and will look elsewhere.
My play: Azure Star will get the easy lead and play come catch me. Will he get caught? Not if he gets an easy lead. If he gets pressed someone like Wellsort could catch him late. I will go with Azure Star for the win, and then put him overtop Wellswort in the exacta.
Sixth race (5-1/2 furlongs, claiming, 4:15 p.m.)
Bobbyās Genie (Reid France, Alexander Chavez, 7/2) ran a nice second at the same distance, stalking the pace before making a move in the lane. Wheels back here at the same distance. There appears to be some speed here so she may get a good pace to run at. Moro First Class (Howard Rubin, Hugo Herrera, 10/1) has been off since September of last year. She had a big work on May 26, then followed with a solid maintenance work on June 2. I need to see one before I can endorse. Bobās Vai (Faith Taylor, Anne Sanguinetti, 8/1) is 0-for-3 this year and the last was as tough one, finishing a badly beaten sixth. Has flashed speed last three but has continually backed up. Irish Prancer (Steve Specht, Frank Alvarado, 3/1) is one of the favorites and justifiably so. She was an even running third two back, then got the job done in her last out, sitting just off the lead and pouncing in the lane. I can see the same trip here with one of the top connections. Bronze Girl (Jesus Ramos, Santos Rivera, 5/1) has got a lot of speed early as she has led at the first call in the last four starts. The problem? Apart from four back she lacks the staying power. Maybe this track will allow her to hold the speed more. Madame Gazelle (Efrain Miranda, Assael Espinoza, 5/2) has been off since September and is the morning line favorite. Not sure why to be honest other than she is 2-for-2 over the Pleasanton surface, getting a wire to wire win last year on the Fourth of July. But that was the latest win. Sahara Sue (Sheldon Paldanius, Leonel Camacho-Flores, 6/1) came from off the pace in her last to get the win. It was a change from her recent form where she made the lead and set the pace before fading. It will be interesting to see which form is used here.
My play: I have to use Irish Prancer here as the connections have been very good to me over the years. Has the speed to lead the race or sit just off. Repeat of last start gets it done here.
Seventh race (1 mile-70 yards, allowance, 4:45 p.m.)
Danzing Rebel (Cliff Delima, William Antongeorgi III, 4/1) has been solid this year, hitting the board in four of five starts. In the last he chased the pace around the track before being gobbled up late and finishing fifth. Doo Wop Don (Samuel Calvario, Catalino Martinez, 7/2) has seen better times but has still hit the board in three of eight starts this year. Prefers a closing style which is possible here. Night Proof (Isidro Tamayo, Adrian Castellanos, 9/2) had a huge year last in the claiming ranks hitting the board in 8-of-10 starts, including a second here. Goes to the shelf last August, then comes back three weeks ago and runs second in the return. Would normally expect a step forward but the barn only hits at 11 percent for the second off. Still, major player. Enos Slaughter (Marcellino Trujillo, Cristobal Herrera, 5/2) the horse has been off since November now comes in as the morning line favorite. A solid run last season, hitting the board seven-of-13 starts but does come from a barn that is 0-for-5 coming off this long of a break. Meeking (Bill McLean, Alexander Chavez, 10/1) has taken a break with his last start being in early April where he was eased and walked off. Capable of winning this if all systems are go. Check the tote for keys. Tamarando Star (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza, 3/1) at his best, dispatches these. Last start was on the turf at Santa Anita in the Snow Chief and was no factor after problems at the start. An easier field here but have no idea what to expect in the initial dirt start. The connections are such that you canāt toss.
My play: I like Night Proof here. The horse has been facing softer, but the barn is protecting him here. In his first start off the break, he looked strong and I can see another step forward.
Eighth race (1 mile-70 yards, claiming, 5:15 p.m.)
Gentle Julia (Marcia Stortz, Francisco Monroy, 8/1) has hit the board once in five starts this year. Has faced some of these regularly without much success. Desert Rumble (Isidro Tamayo, William Antongeorgi III, 10/1) has not done much in the last six starts. In fact, last time she hit the board was back in December when she broke maiden with a deep close win. Standforgrit (Roger Hansen, Hugo Herrera, 12/1) ran second four back at 6/1 but since then nothing. Takes a slight step up today but does have solid dirt form, hitting the board in all four starts. Nice Encounter (Bill McLean, Santos Rivera, 9/2) broke in her last start, sitting just off, then taking control in the lane. Facing winners for the first time and this will be a tough ask. Lochmara (Jorge Bautista, Luis Manuel, Jimenez Aburto, 8/1) ran her best race in awhile in the last start, just missing second to run third at 18/1. Has not been lower than 15/1 in last five starts so we need a big step forward to contend. Harbor Dearest (Alberto Ruvalcaba, Alejandro Gomez, 5/1) ran a solid second in the last start and has hit the board in three of five starts. Not sure what type of race we will see as she has shown speed but also sit just off and close. Guide My Steps (Blaine Wright, Alexander Chavez, 12/1) broke maiden four back with an impressive close. Hasnāt done much since but has been facing better. Should be a good spot to slide into as she goes from turf to dirt. A Perfect Path (Jeff Bonde, Assael Espinoza, 5/1) has the best recent form, running second, then third in the last two starts. Been off since April 21 and has some nice drills for the return. Takes a small step down from the last and should be sitting on a nice one. Sweet Millie (Victor Trujillo, Irving Orozco, 7/2) is the speed of the race as she has been in the lead or just off at the second call in her last four. The concern is the staying power as the last two has seen fades to third by 6-lengths, and sixth by 15-lengths. Races have been against better so this might be the spot she gets back to her winning ways. River of Ambition (Alberto Ruvalcaba, 15/1) has not been better than fifth in last for starts. The last start was June 2, and she was last in a seven horse field.
My play: By a process of elimination, I will go with A Perfect Path coming off the freshener with some good works and coming to the barnās home track.