Alameda County Fair Picks – Sunday, June 26
First race (1:45 p.m.)
Picks: Arma d’Oro, Mike Dad, Medal Ice
Analysis: Arma d’Oro came back after a three month break, dropped in class and turned in a solid performance and just by a nose to a horse that came back and won again. The barn is solid with second off after a break, as well as turf to dirt. Mike Dad has been consistent in all three starts, with his best effort coming in the most recent race. Finished second that day after battling on the pace throughout. Medal Ice has had a roller coaster in just three starts and does seem to get batter each start. Took a big drop for last start and turned in his best effort and now climbs up the ladder again.
Second race (2:15 p.m.)
Picks: A Dime for Me, Seaside Dancer, Traffic Stopper
Analysis: There are a lot of things adding up here to make A Dime for Me the one to bet. The last three races have been two wins and a second. Two came on the dirt and one on a synthetic surface. The barn is solid on the “won last start” angle, and overall, the horse has hit the board 8-of-14 career starts. Seaside Dancer is coming off a win and has five of the bars 11 wins this year. When some of the lower percentage barns get a good runner, they don’t let go of them. This one of those. Traffic Stopper is the same as my second choice, except in this instance she has three of the five wins for the barn. Always has shown speed started the win three straight, hard-fought wins.
Third race (2:45 p.m.)
Picks: Lady Skywalker, First Time Player, Closed Circuit.
Analysis: Yes, Lady Skywalker only has two thirds to show for nine starts, but all have come on synthetic and this is a horse that is bred to run on dirt. Has shown speed in every start and now gets to a surface the connections have been waiting for. Graduation day! First Time Player has not found the board in five starts but has shown speed in the starts, with all being on synthetics. Now gets a chance to show her speed on a speed favoring track. Close Circuit has hit the board in three of five starts and in a field where no one looks invincible, you think she can get a piece of the pie.
Fourth race (3:15 p.m.)
Picks: Always Litt, Polacco, Playing Hardball
Analysis: Always Litt seems to be making the natural progression to good things. Has two starts and improved significantly in the second start. One of the best barns in Northern California had a strong work over the track. Polacco is another that showed big improvement from his first to second start, and if takes another step here, he will be right in the mix. Playing Hardball was off almost two years and came back with a predictable return. Now we have the second start off the break and comes from the turf to the dirt.
Fifth race (3:45 p.m.)
Picks: Olympic Silver, Thunder of Zion, Wicklow Hills
Analysis: Not a very strong lot here so I will look for someone that has been in contention in a race. Olympic Silver as at least hit the board in 2-of-4 starts this year. Has the best recent races and speed figures. Thunder of Zion did improve from his first to second start and has had a work over the track. Wicklow Hills is making his debut for a barn that is at least decent with first timers.
Sixth race (4:15 p.m.)
Picks: Ascendancy, Big Jolt, Emily Smiles
Analysis: Even though she hasn’t won a race Ascendancy has been solid every start with three seconds and two thirds in five career starts. Has shown desire to be in the pace and had a huge work back on June 5 before her last start. Big Jolt adds blinkers for a barn that hits at 38 percent for first time blinkers. Has shown decent speed and now jumps from a route to a sprint, a solid move for a horse that is looking to get out. Emily Smiles has been off since August of last year but is a barn that is good on that angle as well as first time with the trainer. Has out together a nice series of works for the return.
Seventh race (4:45 p.m.
Picks: Mischievous Curlin, The Arcadian Way, Damn the Torpedoes.
Analysis: Mischievous Curlin came out after her last start with a blowout bullet work, followed a maintenance work. Hit the board two-of-three starts this year and looks primed for a big performance here. The Arcadian Way wired the field for her debut, then went to shelf for almost a year. Has put together a nice series of works for a barn that is good with returns off that length of a break. Damn the Torpedoes is always around the board, coming in the top three in five-of-seven starts.
Eighth race (5:15 p.m.)
Picks: J T’s Creditcard, Love of the Sport, Salto de Tigre
Analysis: J T’s Credit card ran a good race here last year finishing third in a race with a stronger field than this one. Turned in a big run last outing and was claimed by a barn that is hitting at an insane 37 percent in first of the claim. Love of the Sport was just back of my top choice in his start and has finished in the money in six-of-seven starts this year. Does like to come from off the pace so that might be a concern here. Salto de Tigre has had a pair of decent runs and now drops in class for this one.