When the Belmont Stakes rolls around each year there are usually two reactions.
One – there is the chance for a Triple Crown winner and the level of excitement is off the charts to see if the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner can take all three of the Triple Crown races.
Or two, there is no chance for a Triple Crown, meaning the Derby winner did not win the Preakness, leaving the horse racing world a bit subdued when the race goes off.
This year we have a third option.
The Derby was a sensational race with Sovereignty holding off the charging Journalism for the win. As exciting as the race was, the enthusiasm waned when the Sovereignty connections decided not to run in the Preakness, thus ending any chance at a Triple Crown before the race was even run.
Then a funny thing happened.
The Preakness was run, and it turned out to be one the most exciting Triple Crown races when Journalism turned in one of the most intense stretch runs, going from a seemingly blocked out run, to getting through a non-existent hole by sheer will to win the race.
It wowed not just the horse racing world, but the entire sporting world.
Now three weeks later, we’ve got Derby winning Sovereignty running, taking on Preakness winning Journalism, and throwing in the rest of the field, we have the recipe for one heck of a classic finale.
Rodriguez, who scratched late for the Derby, Baeza – the third horse from the Derby, and Crudo – an emerging superstar – all are signed up for the Belmont.
Overall, there are eight graded stake races on Saturday. And as we have for the Derby and the Preakness, we will have a Belmont Day free handicapping contest at the Pleasanton OTB.
The contest is simple – and once again FREE – you just a winner in each stake race, with the winners getting cash vouchers!
The contest starts with the running of a stake – the 6th race, the Wonder Again – at 10:55 a.m.
Here are the eight graded races on Belmont day.
Grade II The Wonder Again
(6th race, 1-1/16-miles, turf, 10:55 a.m. PDT)
This one is for 3-year-old fillies on the inner turf course.
Nitrogen (Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 1/1) is sitting on four straight wins, with three of them coming in graded races. The last came on the Kentucky Oaks undercard in the Grade II Edgewood where she stalked the pace, took the lead at the top of the lane, then pulled away in the lane, winning by over three lengths. Has had two good works since then and is well deserving of the even-money status.
May Day Ready (Joseph Lee, Frankie Dettori, 9/2) had four great starts in the United States last year with three wins and a place before shipping to Japan. Once there, in a Grade I last December, she was 13th, losing by over eight lengths. She has had a series of consistent works for the return but we will to see if she can return to form. At her best she is right there but that needs to be seen before I can commit.
Laurelin (Graham Motion, Kendrick Carmouche, 5/1) has known nothing but winning as she has run three times and won each start. Certainly, the toughest race she has seen but when all you do is win, you deserve a look.
Grade III The True North
(7th race, 6.5 furlongs, 11:37 a.m.)
A shootout on the main track for 4-year-olds and up, with nine going to post.
Mullikin (Rodolphe Brisset, Flavien Prat, 2/1) is the morning line favorite in a wide-open race. Has only start this year after winning four of six last year. He was fifth in the slop after taking the lead at the top of the lane. That was the Grade I Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard. The works for this have been decent for this one. Expect him to be on or near the lead.
Book’em Danno (Derek Ryan, Paco Lopez, 5/2) is a closer that should get a strong pace to run at. He has won seven of his 12 starts at the distance. He won the Woody Stephens last year over the track and then was third over the track in the Jerkins last August.
Nakatoni (Wesley Ward, Irad Ortiz, 4/1) when last seen was in the UAE, running second by a neck in the Golden Shaheen. That is the only start this year. Has been back in plenty of time to get rest from the trip. He has had two blowout works to prep for here. He can run up front and from off the pace and will take what is given to him.
Concrete Glory (Saffie Joseph, Luis Saez, 8/1) is a speed burner breaking from the rail so he will go when the gate opens. Largely an runner in optional claimers, he has won 15 times in 36 career starts. In the last one he got decently bet but didn’t get out of the gate in the Maryland Sprint. He’s come back with two big works and could be the value play in this race.
Grade I The Metropolitan Handicap
(8th race, One-mile, main track, 12:17 p.m.)
The Met Mile only draws a field of five as the inside two horses are loaded and come with no value, and justifiably as well. Two of the biggest names in racing – Fierceness and White Abarrio have never faced off until this race.
Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 1/1) has three wins and a second since the disappointing Kentucky Derby run in 2024. He won the Jim Dandy and the Travers last year, then got run down later by Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. After six months on the shelf, he came back in the Grade II Alysheba the day before the Derby and was more than a length clear for the win, wrapping up a 107 Beyer. Three drills over the track have all been decent. He sits near the pace then starts to move halfway through the race.
White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Irad Ortiz, 9/5) has taken two in a row and both were comfortable. He took the Pegasus World Cup Invitational by over six lengths in January at Gulfstream. He then won the Grade III Ghostzapper on March 29, also at Gulfstream, by over five lengths. He has the same running style as Fierceness, and it would be no surprise to see the two inside horses running together through the race until they sort it out in the lane.
Raging Torrent (Doug O’Neill, Frankie Dettori, 5/1) is the runner I would probably play if I thought I could beat the top two. The west coast runner has won four of his last five starts, with the lone blemish being a seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint back in November. He has run and won twice since then, taking the Grade I Malibu and the Grade II Godolphin in UAE in April. Also has the same running style as the top two.
Grade I The Jaipur
(9th race, 5.5 furlongs, turf, 1:08 p.m.)
Think Big (Michael Stidham, Ben Curtis, 6/5) is the heavy favorite and has won four of his last five starts, including three consecutive. Three back it was an $50,000 optional claimer claimer at the Fair Grounds, followed by the Grade II Sharktown at Keeneland, then the Grade II Turf Sprint on the Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. The last two were closes from mid-pack, with the others being a deeper close. There at least four speedsters signed up here for him to chase.
Ag Bullet (Richard Baltas, Flavien Prat, 7/2) is the second choice and is one of the front runners that will try to run and hide. The mare came off a five month break and laid an egg, finishing seventh in the Grade III Unbridled Sydney S. on Kentucky Oaks day. Obviously in this case he needed a start and I expect the speed to hold here.
Our Shot (John Terranova, Luis Saez, 8/1) was fourth behind Think Big in the Sharktown, his last start. Has two starts this year and has been out of the money in both.
Arzak (Michael Trombetta, Irad Ortiz, 8/1) is the final single-digit morning line entry. He was seventh in the Sharktown, his lone start of the year. He won one out of seven starts last year.
Grade III The Pennine Ridge
(10th race, 1-1/16-mile, turf, 1:47 p.m.)
There are 10 horses set here in the turf race for 3-year-olds.
Zulu Kingdom (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 6/5) is the heavy favorite and he won 5-of-6 races in his career, including both starts this year. The last start was the Grade I American Turf on the day of the Derby, using his preferred style of sitting not far off the pace, then pouncing down the lane.
Flying Mohawk (Whitworth Beckman, Frankie Dettori, 9/2) is the second choice and was last seen on the main track at Churchill Downs when he was 18th of 19 starters in the Kentucky Derby, He snuck into the Derby with a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steak.
States’ Rights (Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 6/1) will be running in his first stake race and has just one win in six career starts. Has two starts this year and has run second twice. One of the races, he was second to Flying Mohawk in a $100,000 optional claimer.
If you are looking for a value play, try A.P. Kid (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 10/1) started Feb. 15 in a straight maiden race on the dirt and finished sixth, beaten 30 lengths. He came back five weeks later, switched to turf and won as the favorite. A big step up here but given the connections and the big works for this race sure look good.
Grade I The Woody Stephens
(11th race, 7 furlongs, main track, 2:28 p.m.)
This sprint is for 3-year-olds, many of which were in the Kentucky Derby trail, or actually ran in the Derby.
Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 4/1) runs at 7 furlongs for the second time and that was in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga in September of 2024. He was second in the Tampa Bay Derby and sixth in the Bluegrass, keeping him out of the Derby. It looks like he is more comfortable in a sprint.
Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 5/1) ran in the Derby, breaking out quickly then moving steadily backwards the rest of the race, finishing 15th, 33 lengths off the winner. Has run at the distance last September and was third. Has put in some strong mornings for this spot. He was the top 2-year-old last year after winning the BC Juvenile.
Patch Adams (Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 5/1) was a favorite of mine heading into the Derby preps but a fourth Southwest and a fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby put an end to any Derby thoughts. He’s had more success in the sprints and this is the distance he’s going to make a living at. On Derby day he won a $125,000 optional claimer on the undercard by over two lengths.
Colloquial (George Weaver, Manny Franco, 6/1) scratched out Thursday morning.
Neoequos (Saffie Joseph, Jose Ortiz, 8/1) got into the Derby by running third in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida. In the Derby he had a lot of problems and was 13th, beaten by 27 lengths. His first five starts were sprints, and he had two wins and two seconds. This guy will fight for the lead.
Macho Music (Rohan Crichton, Javier Castellano, 8/1) pulled off the shocker on Derby Day, taking the Pat Day Mile at 14/1, beating some entered here. A speed-favoring runner, he had juice left at the end of the last one and should be a contender here.
Grade I The Manhattan
(12th race, 1-3/16-miles, turf, 3:09 p.m.)
This one goes nearly 1.5 miles on the turf for a purse of $1 million, with nine runners entering.
Spirit of St. Louis (Chad Brown, Manny Franco, 5/2) has won two Grade 1 races this year, taking the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, then Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on the day of the Kentucky Derby. He has a win and two seconds over the turf at Saratoga. He has 11 wins in 16 career starts.
Far Bridge (Miguel Clement, Joel Rosario, 3/1) has won four of his last five starts, all graded races. The one disappointment was a ninth in the BC Turf where had problems throughout. The other four were wins in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, the Turf Classic at Aqueduct, the Grade II I Pan American, and a win in the Grade II Man O’War at Aqueduct on May 10. He can sit close, or he can close from the parking lot.
Integration (Claude McGaughey, Flavien Prat, 9/2) was seventh in the Turf Classic at Churchill on Derby, running into traffic, blanket finish. He had two seconds and a win in the three races before the most recent. There a few of the runners back for here from the Turf Classic and with a chance of another congested finish I expect him to move sooner.
Deterministic (Miguel Clement, Kendrick Carmouche, 9/2) is the stablemate of Far Bridge but can stand on his own has he has been no worse than second in his last five races. A tougher field for sure but he will be out quick and try to hold off the closers.
Grade I The Belmont Stakes
(13th race, 1-1/4-miles, main track, 4:04 p.m.)
It is easy to get caught up in Sovereignty vs. Journalism race and it could very easily be those two at the end but I think there are good choices to look for value.
Let’s go through the field in post-position order.
- Hill Road (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, 10/1) was third in the BC Juvenile last year, third in Tampa Bay Derby, then was the winner of the Peter Pan May 10 at Aqueduct, even with a stumble at the start. A closer who will have some pace to run at, I think it’s too much to outkick the top two, as well as Baeza,
- Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 2/1) the connections decided to skip the Preakness following the Derby win so there should be no question as to his fitness. He has won two of three losses this year, with the defeat coming in the Florida Derby where he was second to Tappan Street. Will be sitting in striking distance when they enter the final turn.
- Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 6/1) is one of the speed horses and will look for a repeat of the Wood Memorial where he broke first and never looked back, winning the race and earning him a spot in the Derby. Was a late scratch in Kentucky and now the connections look to validate him being considered one of the top 3-year-olds.
- Uncaged (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 30/1) was a badly beaten sixth in the Peter Pan and doesn’t figure to be factor here.
- Crudo (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 15/1) will likely get a few of my win dollars, as well as a spot on my ticket. Stumbled in his debut and was fourth on February 8. He came back and broke by over seven lengths on April 8 at Keeneland. Jumped to stake company on Preakness Day in the Sir Barton and wired the field for another seven-length win. A huge jump up the competition level but the connections would not him there unless they planned on him being ready.
- Baeza (John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, 4/1) is going to get a lot of play following the big close in the Derby to run third. He was closing ground on Journalism in the final strides. He seems to be improving with every start and has only been off the board in his debut.
7) Journalism (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 8/5) is actually the morning line favorite even though he lost to Sovereignty when they last met. The stretch run to win the Preakness was one of the most exciting I have seen in 50-plus years of racing. My question/concern is a big one. The Derby and the Preakness were two of the most physically draining races I’ve seen and now we expect him to come back here for the longest of the three classics. By all accounts he came out of the Preakness in good condition and has looked great in the mornings, I just think it’s too much to ask If he does get it done here, he will be a super horse.
8) Heart of Honor (Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne, 30/1) ran better than I thought he would in the Preakness, coming over from the UAE. Showed some guts to rally late in the Preakness following a slow start. If he’s going to close here, he will have to be better than some of the best in the sport.