Rebel, Battaglia go to post this weekend!

One big Kentucky Derby prep race and one not so big one dot the Derby prep Saturday for the second weekend in a row.

Last week it was the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds drawing the big runners, with the Sunland Derby wrapping up the weekend on Sunday.

This time both races are on Saturday, with the Rebel at Oaklawn Park drawing most of the interest by virtue of the 50-25-15-10-5 point system for the race.

In the evening, the John Battaglia Memorial takes place at Turfway Park. The available points are 20-10-6-4-2 for the field.

Oaklawn Park

Rebel (11th race, 1-1/16-miles, 3:23 p.m.)

  1. Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley trainer, Juan Vargas jockey, 10/1) was horribly inconsistent through his first three starts, then something clicked as he has run off three wins. And, the three wins, have all shown different forms. The first saw a mid-pack rally, the second from well off the pace, and in the third, he wired the field. Won his only start over the track.
  2. Admiral Dennis (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 12/1) won his lone start this year, coming off a month break. He sat close and pounced in a $100,000 optional claimer as the heavy favorite. In fact, has been the favorite in all four career starts but has only produced two wins. The connections make you notice.
  3. Sandman (Mark Casse, Cristian Torres, 4/1) is a $1.2 million purchase that has produced two wins from six career starts. Did run well here in the Southwest at the end of January. He had some trouble at the start but rallied and finished second. I think the horse on the inside is the better value play at this point.
  4. Hypnus (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez, 10/1) won his debut on Jan. 18 at the Fair Grounds, featuring a big close at 16/1. He has had a pair of above average works since the race and given the connections this one will be worth watching and following the tote board.
  5. Madaket Road (Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz, 9/2) was third in the Lewis in his last start and now ships to Arkansas from Santa Anita, a normal move for a Baffert runner. My concern from watching the Lewis was it was a dull effort throughout. He broke fourth in the five-horse field and finished a well-beaten third. This one is going to take some action and there will be no value.
  6. Publisher (Steve Asmussen, Flavien Prat, 20/1) has yet to pick up a win in five career starts and has run third three times in the five starts. He was seventh after a bobble at the start of the Southwest, getting beaten by many in here. Always seems to prefer to run from off the pace so it will be interesting to see interesting to see how the race develops if he gets a clean break.
  7. Dreaminblue (Randy Morse, Francisco Arrieta, 15/1) finally broke in his fourth start and looks to have improved with each of his four starts. Will get a good idea here to see if he is a viable Arkansas Derby.
  8. Innovator (D Wayne Lukas, Tyler Bacon, 15/1) has one win in eight career starts so might be a reach here. He was third in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds at 16/1, setting the pace for the first three-quarters of the race before getting caught late.
  9. Smoken Wicked (Dallas Stewart, Tyler Gaffalione, 8/1) ended 2024 with three wins is a row, taking the Louisiana Juvenile and the Louisiana Futurity, both at the Fair Grounds. Now after a brief break, ships here to Arkansas. Through all eight races, he has shown the desire to be close to the lead. Can’t rule out here at what could be a good price.
  10. Bullard (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 5/1) has run all three starts in California, finishing first in the Bob Hope, then third in the San Vincente. Comes out here to avoid Barnes but there are several to worry about in this spot. He will sit off the lead and pick his spot to make the late move.
  11. Speed King (Ron Moquett, Rafael Bejarano, 6/1) shocked everyone to win the Southwest at almost 15/1. He has done nothing wrong thus far, leading at every point of call in all three of his races, except for his second start where he finished second by a half-length. This should be the favorite I think and is likely the horse to beat. Even his works for this spot have been very good. Major player.
  12. Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 8/1) his last win came in September at Kentucky Downs, but he has been solid in three successive stake races, finishing third in the Southwest here. That day he had a troubled trip and still fought to make a late run to get up for the third-place finish. A must on your tickets and could be right there at the end.
  13. Hot Gunner (Scott Young, Harry Hernandez, 50/1) is just not of the same ilk as these runners. He was last beaten 12 lengths here in the Smarty Jones. He went down to Houston from there to run in an allowance race and now is back. Not a lot of positives I can add here.

 


Turfway Park

Battaglia Memorial (7th race, 1-1/16-miles, 5:55 p.m.)

  1. Spirit Rags (Marcelino Sales, Santo Sanjur, 20/1) comes in with a whopping 11 starts and has one win to show for all those starts, and that just came in his last start.
  2. Shan (Ed Moger, Albin Jimenez, 30/1) has a trainer with deep Northern California ties and was a regular on the NorCal Fair Circuit. His most recent start was in a $125,000 race over the track and was third after setting the pace most of the race.
  3. Studlydoright (John Robb, Xavier Perez, 8/1) took a shot in a couple of preps in New York and ran fourth in both the Remsen, then the Jerome. There’s no doubt this will be a softer spot, and we will see early if he is running closer to the pace.
  4. Calling Card (Michael Maker, Gerardo Corrales, 10/1) was a badly beaten eighth in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds, and like the horse to the inside, seeks a softer spot here in hopes of grabbing some easier qualifying points. He has had some strong works in the morning for this race.
  5. California Burrito (Thomas Drury, Irving Moncada, 8/1) is coming off the best performance of his young career, rolling to a seven-length win in a $62,500 optional claimer over the track. This is a step up but not as big as you might think.
  6. Banks (Joe Sharp, Adam Beschizza, 15/1) had been solid early with a second, followed by a pair of wins. Then he stepped into a $125,000 stake over the track and was a badly beaten seventh. Probably not a good spot.
  7. Baby Max (Kelsey Danner, Abel Cedillo, 6/1) was the winner of the Leonatus – that $125K stake over the track on January 18. He was almost 6/1 that day but put together a nice stalking trip and closed strong for the win. Has to have a shot in here with how he’s shown on the track the last two.
  8. King of Ashes (Brendan Walsh, Declan Cannon, 15/1) broke in his most recent effort, his third start overall. The win came at Gulfstream and followed a second-place effort, also at the Florida track. The deep closer should get a good pace to run at.
  9. First Resort (Eoin Harty, Luis Saez, 2/1) has seen the best races by a mile. He is coming off a win in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club in the end of November at Churchill Downs. Was fourth in the Grade I Summer at Woodbine in September and before that was second in the Saratoga Special in August. Been off a while but a good work tab shows he appears fit. If he’s ready, he wins.
  10. Coming in Hot (John Ennis, Edgar Morales, 5/1) scored in the Turfway Preview, a $124,000 race on Jan. 4. That was his third win in seven starts this year. He was 4/1 in the race after coming off a series of races where he was double digits on the tote.
  11. Brereton’s Baytown (Paul McEntee, Joseph Bealmear, 50/1) is one where there is not a lot to say. Nine starts – two wins, with his biggest race recently being a $28,000 allowance race. He is 50/1 for a reason.
  12. Maximum Promise (Kenny McPeek, Evin Roman, 8/1) was fifth in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds and now is searching for an easier spot. He will find it easier here and with the connections, it is possible.