So, who wins The Masters?
More so than any other major, at Augusta there’s less chance for a surprise to step up and win the tournament.
Why is that the case?
Simple. The Masters is played every year on the same course, a course where the more experience you have on the course, the better chance you have of winning the tournament.
It seems like every year I narrow it down to 4-5 golfers as to who will be wearing the Green Jacket on Sunday night in Butler Cabin. And more often than not, the winner comes off my list.
I started with a list of 16 golfers this year and knocked it down to six golfers, from which the winner will emerge.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Colin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Justin Thomas – one of those will be wearing green Sunday night.
The old saying, “The Masters doesn’t start until the back nine on Sunday,” always seems so accurate and it certainly was last year.
If you are going to win, you must be under par over the final nine holes. It’s not that you need eagles on No. 13 and 15 but you must minimize the damage on the other holes.
Look at last year where of the six players I mentioned above, only Scheffler was under-par on the back, where he shot three-under and he predictably won the tournament. He did have a bogey but he also had four birdies.
Aberg finished second to Scheffler in the tournament, losing by four shots. He had two birdies but also added a doble-bogey to finish even par on the back, costing him any chance to put pressure on Scheffler on the last few holes.
McIlroy was two-over on the back, Morikawa one-over, Schauffele one-over after three bogeys and two birdies, DeChambeau was one-over, and Thomas missed the cut.
It’s easy to understand getting a bogey on the closing holes, but there are birdie holes out there and you must take advantage.
If someone stands on the 18th tee with a two-shot lead, the tournament is over. But make it one shot and the pressure of pushing that daunting tee shot right into the pine straw can make it impossible to get home.
Putting everything together I have at my disposal, I had to go with Scheffler defending his title, as well as winning his third Masters in four years.
You play Augusta well and you seem to do so every year. It’s the case that has so many legends still playing – Fred Couples, Phil Mickelson, Bernhard Langer, Mike Weir, Jason Day, and Zach Johnson to name a few, all having a legitimate chance of playing on the weekend.
Playing a full four rounds at Augusta with the terrain being such, is unreasonable to expect the older players to contend on the weekend.
Last year alone, Tiger Woods opened 73-72 before closing 82-77. Phil Mickelson, Jose Maria Olazabal, and Vijay Singh made the weekend.
Scheffler has been No. 1 for a long time for a reason – he gets in less trouble than the others. He manages the course brilliantly and has mad game with his irons
Aberg may have a shot as he has yet another year of experience and you can just tell by watching he is going to rack up his share of majors.
I am always rooting for DeChambeau and when he’s on, it is his tournament to lose. I just think the LIV players have it tough going 72 holes when they are used to 54-hole tournaments.
The bottom line – when it comes midway through Sunday when the last five groups hit the back nine, the tournament will be decided at that point. Of course, you never know when someone is going to go Tiger on the field, but those last nine holes are the most fun to watch on any of the majors.
Have a great weekend of golf!
By Dennis Miller