Write it up – Journalism wins Preakness!!

Photo: Coady Media/Churchill Downs

Itā€™s not often the Kentucky Derby winner does not run in the Preakness Stakes, thus eliminating any chance of a Triple Crown occurring, but thatā€™s the scenario we face this year.

Sovereignty, who outkicked Journalism to the wire to win the Derby, is by passing the Preakness because of ā€œlong-term interestsā€ of the horse.

Journalism (2nd), Sandman (7th), and American Promise (16th) ran in the Derby and are scheduled to compete Saturday in the Preakness. The race is the 13th on the Pimlico card, is set for a 4:01 p.m. PDT post.

While history shows that the Derby winner rarely has skipped the Preakness, recently there was a three-year stretch where the Preakness was run without the Derby winner.

Rich Strike, the 2022 winner, was held out of the race. In 2021 Medina Spirit did not run and was eventually DQā€™d from the Derby. In 2020, neither Country House who was put up for the win when Maximum Security was taken down by the stewards for a foul, ran in the Preakness.

Before then, there was a pair of winners in the 1980ā€™s that skipped the Preakness.

Here is the field in post-position order.

  1. Goal Oriented (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 6/1) might turn out to be the wise guy horse as he comes out of Baffertā€™s barn and has won his first two. The debut came in straight maiden company on April 6 at Santa Anita, with the second coming on the Derby undercard, scoring a win in the mud in a $125,000 optional claimer. In the first he came off the pace and in the second, he wired the field. Nice work since winning.
  2. Journalism (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 8/5) everything that could get in the way in the Derby did and he still ran second. Was a little surprised to see him wheel back but if the connections are confident, then so am I. Was my choice in the Derby and will be again here as he should get back to his winning ways. Great post and a smaller field add up to a win!
  3. American Promise (D Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, 15/1) has a grand total of two wins in 10 starts in his career and is coming off a 16th place finish in the Derby. He was 38 lengths back what turned out to be glorified jog. He likes to get out and run so it could be a big part of the pace factor.
  4. Heart of Honor (Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne, 12/1) was the second-place finisher in the UAE Derby and now ships for his first start in America. He has never been worse than second in all six starts but not a lot is known about this runner.
  5. Pay Billy (Michael Gorham, Raul Mena, 20/1) one of two horses saddled with a 20/1 morning line. He has been on a roll at Laurel this year, winning four back, and then running second in the next three starts. Obviously, this is the biggest race he has seen but likes to get out early and expect him to be on or near the pace.
  6. River Thames (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 9/2) lost by a nose to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth back in early March and then was third in the Arkansas Derby. Scratched out of the Kentucky Derby and figures to be one of the major contenders here. Has never been worse than third at any point of call in all four of his races. Loves to sit close throughout and move when they hit the stretch.
  7. Sandman (Mark Casse, John Velazquez, 4/1) was a big disappointment in Kentucky as he finished seventh, 12 lengths back. Made it to Kentucky via the Arkansas prep races. He was second in the Southwest, third in the Rebel, then won the Arkansas Derby with a strong close. He suffered a bumping incident in Kentucky and should get a better trip here. He should find enough speed here to set up his deep close.
  8. Clever Again (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 5/1) had his debut in April of 2024 then went to the bench for almost a year. Came back in mid-February with a win in a straight maiden race, then followed in March with a four-length win in the Hot Springs at Oaklawn, earning a 101 Beyer. Could be a real good one and certainly bears watching the tote.
  9. Gosger (Brendan Walsh, Luis Saez, 20/1) has won two consecutive races but is not getting much love here. Blasted down the lane to win the Lexington, but that wasnā€™t enough points to get him close to the Derby. Lightly raced with only three starts so, we will find out a lot about the horse here. Nice work for this one. My guess is we will hear more about this one later this year.

Who wins?

I apologize for giving you the chalk, but this has to be Journalismā€™s race to lose. Like I said above he had a ton of trouble in the Derby and still ran second. This time there are only nine horses in the race so way less chance for trouble. There is rain in the forecast for Saturday at this point, but he showed the slop was not a problem.

I see Journalism getting the perfect trip and with no Sovereignty to worry about in the lane, he will win the race.

Exotics wise, I am considering using him over a few horses Goal Oriented, River Thames, Sandman, and Clever Again, but the payoffs will be low enough as with only nine horses you can out Journalism over the field.

I may play some win wagers on some of the higher priced runners within the last couple minutes before the race based on their odds.

By Dennis Miller