Photo credit: Carlos Calo/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders’ Cup
**Editor’s note: These previews were finished Wednesday night and do not include any late scratches or changes.
By Dennis Miller
Since the Breeders’ Cup is on the West Coast, the Breeders’ Cup Classic has once again been moved forward on the card and is the 9th race of the day, set for an 3:25 p.m. post, right in prime time back east.
There are three more BC races after the classic, with the BC Filly and Mare Turf set to wrap up the day with a 5:25 p.m. post.
The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is at 12 noon.
Following is a run through of all nine Breeders’ Cup races today, with 4-5 horses listed for each race.
BC Filly and Mare Sprint
(4th race, 12 noon)
Sweet Azteca (Richard Baltas, Juan Hernandez, 2/1) has won two straight races since the barn change from Michael McCarthy to Baltas. Both starts have come this year as most recently she the Grade III Rancho Bernardo on August 24 at Del Mar. There is no big secret here – the gate opens and she goes and goes fast.
Tamara (Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 7/2) has but one start this year and that came in the Grade III Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita. It was the first start in almost a year, and it was a beautiful stalking trip, with her drawing off in the lane. Has had three maintenance works since then and should be tough here.
Hope Road (Bob Baffert, Jose Ortiz, 4/1) has four starts this year and has hit the board in all four. The most recent was the best as she brought home the win in the Grade I Ballerina at Saratoga on August 23. After trouble while loading the gate, she ran a great stalking pace, took control as they turned for home, and drew off to win. She has been tearing up in the mornings and looks like she is sitting on a big one.
Richi (Bob Baffert, Luis Saez, 5/1) is another Baffert horse that has seen six either Grade I or Grade II races this year. The last two were a third in the Grade I Hirsch at Del Mar on August 2, followed by a second in the Zenyatta at Santa Anita on Sept. 28. Been moving well in the mornings and always beware of the other Baffert horse.
Splendora (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 8/1) is the third Baffert horse in the race and is coming off an impressive performance. On Sept. 1 she took the Tranquility Lakes at Del Mar. That day she went wire to wire and drew off to win by over five lengths and earned a 100 Beyer for the race.
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BC Turf Sprint
(5th race, 12:41 p.m.)
Motorious (Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 7/2) has just two starts this year and they were both wins. In the most recent he crossed the line in second after a monster close but was moved up to first via disqualification. Two back he again came from off the pace in the Grade III Dayton on June 14 at Santa Anita. If the speed gets crazy out-front look for this one flying late.
Arizona Blaze (Adrian Murray, David Egan, 5/1) is one of the European runners, with this guy having four wins in eight starts this season. He prefers to be up front, adding to what should be a good pace.
Ag Bullet (Richard Baltas, John Velazquez, 4/1) has won two straight, taking the Grade I Jaipur at Saratoga on June 8, then after a break came back to take the Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Two back he stalked the pace, then in the last race he wired the field. More pace.
Shisospicy (Jose D’Angelo, Irad Ortiz, 6/1) is yet another speedster as he has been first or second in every first call in his six starts. He has four wins and a second in the six starts this year. The last start was an impressive score in the Grade II Music City at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 6.
BC Sprint
(6th race, 1:21 p.m.)
Bentornato (Jose D’Angelo, Irad Ortiz, 5/2) took almost a year off after running second in this race last year and looked like he didn’t miss a beat.
Kopion (Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 7/2) has dove very little wrong in her last five starts, all against graded stake company, winning three times and running second twice. In her most recent start she was second in the Grade I Hirsch at Del Mar on August 2, earning a 107 Beyer in the process. She will on or pushing the pace.
Imagination (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 6/1) is coming off a win in the Santa Anita Sprint Challenge, surviving a bump to win by almost two lengths. He does not go for the lead, but he wants to be right there pushing the pace.
Straight No Chaser (Dan Blacker, John Velazquez, 8/1) is your defending champ in this race in his only start at Del Mar. Since then he went to the middle east where he was a badly beaten eighth in the Dubai Golden Shaeen in April. After some time away, he set the pace throughout the SA Sprint Challenge before getting collected in the lane and finishing third. Expect better fitness here and a more lasting power.
Dr. Venkman (Mark Glatt, Umberto Rispoli, 15/1) has always been one of my favorite sprinters. Has won four of six starts at Del Mar, including the Grade II Pat O’Brien on August 23. In what should be a fast pace, a closer may be a good play and this will be mine.
BC Distaff
(7th race, 2:01 p.m.)
Seismic Beauty (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 9/5) is the heavy favorite here and has won three races in a row. Three back it was a 10-length score in an optional claimer and two back it was the Grade II Santa Margarita by five lengths on May 25 at Santa Anita. Went to the shelf until August 2 at Del Mar when she stepped out and won the Grade I Hirsch. Not a bad career for a horse that ran in sprints for the first four starts before showing the routing capabilities. Has speed and will use it as she wire the field in all three wins recently.
Nitrogen (Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 4/1) ships out from the east and has been sensational, winning six of eight starts this year. The last seven starts have all come in graded races and the last three have all been Grade I. In the most recent she got headed by Gin Gin in the Spinster at Keeneland on Oct. 5. She prefers a stalking style and pouncing when they turn for home.
Dorth Vader (George Weaver, John Velazquez, 5/1) last started Aug. 23 when she was second by a nose to Thorpedo Anna in the Grade I Personal Ensign at Saratoga. She earned a 100 Beyer that day and has been off since then. The works have been solid for the return.
Gin Gin (Brendan Walsh, Luis Saez, 12-1) pulled the shocker at 19/1, winning the Spinster and beating Nitrogen in the process. She wired the field that day and it was the first time she took the lead early in here career. Always has enjoyed being near the lead but never on the lead. Did a light finally go off?
BC Turf
(8th race, 2:41 p.m.)
Minnie Hauk (Aiden O’Brien, Christophe Soumillon, 8/5) is no surprise to be the heavy favorite in a race traditionally dominated by European horses. He’s won four of five starts this year and had a four-race winning streak until he was headed in his last start. He likes to sit right with the pace, then take control in the lane. It will take a big effort to beat this one.
Rebel’s Romance (Charles Appelby, William Buick, 5/2) the defending champion is this race was running in Europe this year until shipping over early to the United States. He entered – and won – the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct on Sept. 27, earning a 106 Beyer in the process. He pretty much wired the field that day, winning by over three lengths. He has won 5-for-7 races this year.
Goliath (Francis-Henri Graffard, Mickael Barzalona, 8/1) is the only other horse in single digit, morning-line odds. He has won two of his five starts this year, hardly a positive compared to the two favorites. This is another horse that wants to be close to the lead.
Golden Phoenix (Phil D’Amato, Umberto Rispoli, 20/1) was fourth in this race last year and as of late he has been running well, winning his last two starts, including the Del Mar Handicap on August 30 over the same course he’s running Saturday. In fact, he has won five of his nine starts over the Del Mar course. You can play the chalk, or take a fly on a horse that will have a good pace to chase.
BC Classic
(9th race, 3:25 p.m.)
Sovereignty (William Mott, Junior Alvarado, 6/5) is the one to beat and is your likely winner. He’s 5-for-6 this year with the lone loss coming five starts back when he was second in the Florida Derby. Since then there’s been winning the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy, and the Travers, the last of which was by 10 lengths in his most recent start, August 23. Here are the last four Beyer figures – 104, 109, 104, 115.
Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 4/1) is a bit of surprise to me as the second choice. True, he is coming off an impressive win in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 30. But two back he was running second to defending champion Sierra Leone in the Whitney.
Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 8/1) is the defending cham and making his final start here. One of my all-time favorite horses closes from the parking lot. If there is a big pace to chase – and I am not sure there will be – then he is a must. He was beaten by Antiquarian in the Jockey Club but had some problems in the lane during his close. Still, he ran second that day.
Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 6/1) is the Japanese runner that was third in the Kentucky Derby last year, then was third in this race last year. He closed like a monster in the Derby but then sat closer to the pace in this race a year ago.
Journalism (Michael McCarthy, Jose Ortiz, 10/1) is the big fella that captured the hearts of the racing world with wins in the Preakness and Haskell. He four wins in seven starts this year, losing twice to Sovereignty and once to Fierceness. Hard to imagine him finishing out of the top two but it might happen here.
Mindframe (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 10/1) is one where it’s tough to look at the connections and not make the favorite. He has won three of four this year, with the one loss coming in the Jockey’s Club where he bumped coming out of the gate and lost the rider. He did hold off Sierra Leone in the Foster at Churchill Downs in June.
Baeza (John Shireffs, Hector Berrios, 15/1) has had a huge 3-year-old campaign except for losing to Sovereignty three times and Journalism once. He gets away from those two and he is the one to beat.
BC Mile
(10th race, 4:05 p.m.)
Notable Speech (Charles Appleby, William Buick, 5/2) is the top European runner and as a result, the one to beat. There are some signs if you’re not enamored. His lone win this year came when he shipped to the United States early, entered and won the Woodbine Mile. Other than that, he was second one other time, then ran off the board in three other starts.
Rhetorical (William Walden, Irad Ortiz, 5/1) carries America’s hopes, winning all four of his starts this year. In the Turf Mile at Keeneland on Oct. 4 he got up late for the win, getting a 101 Beyer in the process. This one to take a long look at to beat what I think is a weak favorite.
Sahlan (Francis-Henri Graffard, Mickael Barzalona, 6/1) another European runner, this one sporting two straight wins in France. Can run either on the pace or can come from off of it.
The Lion In Winter (Aiden O’Brien, Christophe Soumillon) has not won in six starts this year, with one second and a pair of thirds on his resume. He was beaten by Sahlan two back and Notable Speech three back.
Johannes (Tim Yakteen, Umberto Rispoli, 8/1) is an American runner that last year was second in this race, and had a tremendous year with five wins and the one second in six starts. This year has not been as busy as he had two starts. The first was back in August when he was a bad ninth in the Forustardave Stakes at Saratoga. He shipped back west after the race and won the Grade II City of Hope Mile by almost two lengths. He doesn’t appear to be as formidable as last year but if he’s ready, take the odds!
BC Dirt Mile
(11th race, 4:45 p.m.)
Nysos (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 8/5) is the big favorite in one of my favorite races of the Breeders’ Cup every year. The horse has run three times this year, starting with a second by a neck in the Grade I Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard, then came back with wins in Triple Bend at Santa Anita and the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar.
Full Serrano (John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 7/2) has two starts this year – a win in a $100,000 optional claimer at Del Mar on Sept. 1, then a second in the Grade I Goodwood at Santa Anita on Sept. 27. Loves to run out front.
Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Francisco Arrieta, 6/1) is the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner and his last start he returned to the scene of the crime to win the Grade II Lukas Classic. The 4-year-old has not started in a Breeders’ Cup race before.
Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 15/1) is a horse I liked early in the year on the Kentucky Derby trail but after a second in the Tampa Bay Derby feed into the hype, a poor sixth in the Blue Grass ended any Derby chances. His most recent race was a fourth in the Grade I Jerkins on August 23 at Saratoga. Not a great shot here but a horse I liked earlier this year.
BC Filly and Mare Turf
(12th race, 5:25 p.m.)
Gezora (Francis-Henri Graffard, Mickael Barzalona, 7/2) is the lukewarm favorite in the final Breeders’ Cup race of the weekend. She has won two of five starts this year in France but she was 13th taking on the boys in the Grade I Arc.
She Feels Pretty (Cherie DeVaux, John Velazquez, 4/1) is the American hope and brings in a strong resume for this year, with three wins and a second in four starts. The last three have all been Grade I races, and she has won in the New York at Saratoga and the Taylor at Woodbine. She will stalk the pace and be a big runner when they turn for home.
See The Fire (Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy, 5/1) has one win in six starts this year across the pond. Likes to take back and make a late run.
Cinderella’s Dream (Charles Appleby, William Buick, 9/2) has been consistently strong this year, winning twice, running second twice, and third once in six starts this year. Also is a late runner.