Alameda County Fair Picks – Monday, July 4

Alameda County Fair Picks – Monday, July 4


First race (1:45 p.m.)

Picks: Foreign Protocol, Hit the Seam, Theyreminisceoveru.

Analysis: The speed will be sharp for Foreign Protocol who is coming off a pair 1,000 yard quarter-horse races at Los Alamitos. Sounds like the perfect preps for this spot. Last year the horse a first and a second over the track. Hit the Seam was last seen running in 1,000 races at Los Alamitos in April. Since then, he has put together a nice series of works with the last two coming over the dirt in Sacramento. Theyreminiseoveru drops to the lowest claiming level he has faced and has shown speed throughout his career. Might be enough to get a piece of the pie.


Second race (2:15 p.m.)

Picks: Colormemoney, Evenerevenworse, Satanta.

Analysis: Colormemoney has won two of his last three starts and did so near the lead. Sandwiched in between the two wins was a second-place finish. In all three starts the horse went off as the favorite and has hit the board in 7-of-11 on the dirt. Evenerevenworse has won four of six starts this year and although has not hit to board in two dirt starts, the running style is well suited for Pleasanton and two straight Beyer marks in the 80’s says the horse is sharp. Satanta has hit the board four straight and is a must if you are going deep in this race.


Third race (2:45 p.m.)

Picks: Half Hoping, After Sundown, Foggy Bottom.

Analysis: Half Hoping has been running well the last three races and now drops into the lowest claiming level she has competed. Likes to sit close to the pace and move in the lane and has a great post to run that type of race. After Sundown has hit the board in all three of her starts in Pleasanton. Recent for has just been decent, but those have come at Golden Gate Fields and returning to the dirt should wake her up. Foggy Bottom seems the best here and should have a shot at a minor prize.


Fourth race (3:15 p.m.)

Picks: Stoic Luna, Blue Wildcat, Smiling Thunder.

Analysis: Stoic Luna comes to Northern California after making her previous eight starts down south. Was claimed after her last start by a sharp NorCal barn. Been facing better and has been well bet. Loves to sit close and make the late move. Blue Wildcat has five starts this year and has hit the board all five times, with two wins, two seconds, and a third. Also appears to prefer sitting just off and making the move in the lane. Smiling Thunder is another Smiling Tiger horse that has not run a real bad one in her five starts. Already started one here this year and after a poor start, came back to run a fast-closing third. Is bred to like the dirt and now has another chance to prove it.


Fifth race (3:45 p.m.)

Picks: Bold Article, Bandeena, Starship Endeavor.

Analysis: Tough race to call as there is three horses in the race that have won here this meet, but only one of the three will make my ticket. My top choice is Bold Article a horse that can win either on the lead or coming off the pace and it seems almost like a every other race type thing. Went three-wide in the last and ran down the leaders. Has three of five wins this year and is coming back after a brief freshening. Bandeena is the one winner over the track I have put on my ticket. The was first at every call and drew off in the lane to win by five lengths. Starship Endeavor is a horse that has been re-born since shipping north. Struggling at Santa Anita and Del Mar, the horse came to the Bay and the last four races have been first or second. Been bet well bet each time here and has been showing a preference to run up front.


Sixth race (4:15 p.m.)

Picks: America Great, A Man’s Man, Mount Pelliar.

Analysis: The hunch bet of the day will be America Great, but there is substance to go with the name. Eight starts this year have netted three wins, two seconds, and a third. The honest runner that has shown speed throughout his career. A Man’s Man could very dangerous if the horse takes to the dirt.  Has been the betting favorites in five of has last six starts and has won two of those, with two seconds and a third rounding out the in-the-money stats. Mount Pelliar does not come from a high percentage barn but the closer has been adept at grabbing a piece.


Seventh race (4:45 p.m.)

Picks: Lago Di Braciano, Subito Slew, Candybox.

Analysis: Lago Di Braciano comes from a barn that has yet to win this year with a first-time starter, so we weren’t concerned about the pedestrian first start. The barn is much better with second starts and has been one of the top barns for years in Northern California. Here we sit with the second start and does have a good work over the track here. Could be sitting in a real nice spot to win this. Subito Slew will get a nice change in the pilot department and is coming off a race here opening weekend when a poor start put him behind the 8-ball but still rallied to finish third. I think the jock change makes the difference. Candybox is a horse I had on my ticket when he went out and ran second here after setting the pace and beat Subito Slew by a spot. Should get the push from the rail here, but from my spot he is the thir