Alameda County Fair – Saturday, June 18 picks
First race (1:45 p.m.)
Picks: Di Laurian, Broken Finger, Runaway Kristin
Analysis: The first day on Friday showed that even on a much cooler day than normal, front end speed was still a big factor. As it gets warmer, that figures to be even more prominent and the first race today should prove that! Di Laurian the lone consistent speed of all the horses and figures to get out good from the rail. Won one and ran fourth in another here last year but showed speed in both races. You will get a price here and three back, wired the field at Golden Gate at 30-1. Broken Finger will draw some interest but might need more speed to run at than he will get. Plus, he is 0-13 on the dirt so not his best surface. Runaway Kristin showed no speed here last year and is a horse that should have some run. In his last start he flashed some speed and if that happens here, could very well contend. Sugar Beets is the even-money favorite, but I can’t find a reason why. Has never started on the dirt and has hit the board once in his last five starts.
Second race (2:18 p.m.)
Picks: Great Story, Union Wave, Awesome Dude.
Analysis: It’s a 5.5 furlong sprint and speed will be king. I think Great Story is the speed of the speed here. The horse has shown speed in everyone his eight starts, but at times has had trouble with his closing power. That shouldn’t be the case today as the horse gets on to a speed-favoring track. He has hit the board four of five times at the distance and now gets a surface to favor the running style. Wave Union has hit the board in all five of his starts and has speed as well, but just a touch less than my top choice. Awesome Dude is always well bet and has hit the board in 13-of-24 starts. I just think there is too much speed in here for a shorter race and am hoping to see him again this meet, but in a route race.
Third race (2:50 p.m.)
Picks: Jazz City, Royal Jester, Blazing Jamie
Analysis: There are five set to go to post here, and three of them are making their debuts. My first choice will be Jazz City, one of the first timers. His last work was faster and more impressive than that of Royal Jester, the morning line favorite is a horse coming off an even second-place finish and is my second choice. Blazing Jamie is my third choice and has banked third-place finishes in her last two starts.
Fourth race (3:19 p.m.)
Picks: Clem Labine, Darn Quick, Cool Mountain Lad.
Analysis: The best of the day as far as talent goes in my mind. Clem Labine is just an honest, strong runner that loves the dirt and the dirt in Pleasanton. Overall, he has been in the money 22-of-33 times, and 10-of-13 on the dirt. Owned by John Tipton of Santa Rosa and trained by Isidro Tamayo has started in Pleasanton four times and has three wins to go with one second-place finish. He is a late running horse which in Pleasanton is usually bad news, but he has made it work. His recent form is not as good as he started the year, but back here in Pleasanton I am looking for big things. Darnquick was third here last year in the Oak Tree Sprint and was third in March down at Turf Paradise in the Phoenix Gold Cup. Should be the early speed from the outside in the five-horse field. Cool Mountain Lad has the numbers that put the horse right in the thick of it. He has hit the board in 3-of-5 starts this year and draws the nod as the morning line favorite. I think the first two runners are more appreciative of the dirt, but this one certainly could pull it off.
Fifth race (3:53 p.m.)
Picks: Grigoro, Fabriana, Born to Reign.
Analysis: Grigoro is a horse that has one of my favorite training angles. When two good barns go back and forth in a claiming battle. Isidro Tamayo – the current trainer – and Steve Sherman have gone back and forth in claiming the horse changing hands three times. The most recent came in her latest race where Tamayo took the horse back after a second. There is not a bevy of success on the dirt and no previous starts at Pleasanton but those are two savvy barns so there is respect due. Fabriana is another Tamayo runner and the much deserved morning line favorite. The horse has hit the board an amazing 34 times out of 46 career starts. She has hit the board in all six starts on dirt and has a first and a second in two starts in Pleasanton. One more stat to like – has hit the board in seven of nine starts at the distance, including three wins. Born to Reign looks to be the speed of the field and is making his first start for the Jonathan Wong barn. Wong has hit at 26 percent with the move and is coming off a gutsy win, battling right now to the wire before getting up by a nose.
Sixth race (4:23 p.m.)
Picks: As Amatter of Fact, Mashbad Flats, Highland Ghost
Analysis: Going against my normal logic of picking a speed horse, especially at six furlongs but this one has a ton of speed and one that will be flying late. As Amatter of Fact will come and be moving, much the way he did in Fresno last October when he drew off late in his only start on the dirt. Has only one start this year closing to win at Golden Gate in May. It was hard to go against Mashbad Flats, a horse that has three wins, three seconds, and a third in seven starts over the dirt, but he is going to have a lot of company out front here. Ran third in the Turf Paradise Derby in March. Highland Ghost comes into this one off a pair of second-place finishes in turf stakes at Golden Gate Fields. Will the speed on the turf at GGF translate to the dirt in Pleasanton? Promises to be at least four gunning for the lead in the six-horse field.
Seventh race (4:53 p.m.)
Picks: Zu Zu Flynn, Don’t Tell Hyde, P.T. Ranger
Analysis: There is speed here with Zu Zu Flynn and it might be enough to get loose on the front end of this 5.5 furlong finale. First and third in her last two starts, the three-furlong bullet drill at GGF on June 10 shows me the horse is muscled up and ready to unleash a good one. Don’t Tell Hydee looks to stalk and pounce in the lane but my major concern is the horse may need more pace to run at than it looks like this field shows. P T Ranger may be the key horse here. She has flashed speed is some of her races and is she keeps my top choice honest; it may set up nicely for my second choice. A decent race to end the day.