Photo credit: Churchill Downs/Kentucky Derby
By Dennis Miller
The good news about the Kentucky Derby is that it’s a 20-horse field. The bad news – it’s a 20-horse field.
The size of the field increases payoffs as there are so many mathematical possibilities, as well as horses going off at odds much higher than they normally do. The Derby is also a race where the favorite can be 4/1.
On the downside, with 20 horses there can be all kinds of trouble available, from more bumping than usual to forcing a closer to go by up to 19 horses in winning the race.
One more aspect that is brought in to play with a 20-horse field is that it’s hard to find your running spot. If you have eight horses that love to be somewhere around 4th or 5th, what happens is someone will be fourth, but someone will also be 12th.
But good or bad, the Kentucky Derby is not called “the most exciting two minutes in sports,” for no reason. And this Saturday at 3:57 p.m. PDT, we call get the chance to experience the exhilarating Run for the Roses.
To me the toughest part of wagering on the Derby is not the winner as much as filling out a ticket if you go 4-5 horses deep. In an 8-10 horse field, going that deep is risky as if you don’t’ a longshot on to hit the board as the payoff probably won’t justify the expense of the ticket.
With 20 horses, the chances of a big payoff with the sheer volume of payoffs.
The Contenders
Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 4/1) is the morning line favorite but he may not be favored when the gates open in large part because of the rail draw. He is a deep closer, so he doesn’t need to be sent from the beginning. The big concern would be how far back he will be when he settles into his comfort spot. As mentioned above, in a 20-horse field, 17-18 horses are a lot tougher than going by 7-8 horses. He will be full of run in the lane, but will it be enough room as he is not going to be the one with the first run on the leaders. He must be part of your ticket, and I certainly would not be shocked if he won the race. The great ones are great for a reason.
Commandment (Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 6/1) is the second choice and took the Florida preps, winning the Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth, and the Florida Derby. It wasn’t easy in the last two, coming from behind with powerful closes, taking the Fountain of Youth by a neck, then the Florida Derby by a nose. He won’t be as far back as Renegade, and he could be the one to get first run and could be the horse that leaves the gates as the betting favorite. He is the lone horse with two 100-plus Beyer marks.
The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 10/1) got on board with the win in the Tampa Bay Derby, then gained more notice with a big run to finish second in the Florida Derby, just getting passed by Commandment at the line. Has always run an intelligent race not setting the pace but sitting just off. He may be the one that gets first run and has certainly drawn the notice of the morning line person.
Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 15/1) is one of those horses where you get a morning line you will not see that high again. In fact, I think it drops here. He has won both starts and hails from one of the most respected barns with one of the top pilots. He won a straight maiden start in his debut at Tampa Bay Downs, then came into the Louisiana Derby as the favorite and produced, winning by a head. His Beyers of 97 and 90 have been solid. Another that sits in mid-pack and makes one of the first runs.
Could Shake It Up
Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, Atsuya Nishimura, 20/1) it is always tough to get a good read on the International horses and this one from Japan fits the mold. What we do know: he is a big horse that has speed, has won three of his starts, and has faced weaker fields than most of the runners here. But the recent success of Forever Young shows that it’s not if, but rather when a Japanese horse wins the Derby.
So Happy (Mark Glatt, Mike Smith, 15/1) has certainly had the benefit of running in California against what are less the stellar fields. He won the San Vicente, was third in the San Felipe, and won the Santa Anita Derby in driving fashion, finishing almost three lengths clear. He will be part of the pace factor and there is a lot of talent here, but this will be the toughest field he has faced by far. If he can keep in touch with the leaders, he might have a chance to hit the board and boost some tickets.
Chief Wallabee (William Mott, Junior Alvarado, 8/1) was beaten twice by Commandment, running second by a nose in the Fountain of Youth, then was third in the Florida Derby, finishing also behind The Puma. In his maiden win in January, he beat the Puma in a seven-furlong race. He came from well back in the Fountain of Youth but was pushing the pace in the Florida Derby.
Potente (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 20/1) is a $2.5 million purchase price, who won his first two starts, then finished second in the Santa Anita Derby dueling for the lead until the lane when he dropped back to fall by almost three lengths. If Baffert sends Litmus Test early, it’s doubtful he will ask the same of Potente, rather sit mid-pack and hope to one of the horses to make a first run.
Further Ado (Brad Cox, John Velazquez, 6/1) has been solid this year with a first and a second in his two starts, but how good were those fields? He was second in the Tampa Bay Derby to The Puma, then came back and took the Blue Grass as the betting favorite, winning by 11 lengths. He got a 106 Beyer for that win, which is the biggest of any here by far. I just don’t know how good a field it was as the Blue Grass seemed a bit down this year. He won in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill on Nov. 19 so there has been success over the track. He preferred to sit in 4-6 place then make the big run at the end. This is good spot to watch the tote board and see if someone comes in big. You can make a case here, but I am not as sold as others may be.
Longshots
Wonder Dean (Danisuke Takayanagi, Ryusei Sakai, 30/1) is another Japanese horse but this one got here by virtue of his win in the UAE Derby. He has two wins in six starts, and I am not overly optimistic of his chances. Also facing his toughest field to date.
Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Jamie Torres, 20/1) got into the Derby because of the win in the Virginia Derby against a less-than-stellar field. Before then he was last by 25 lengths in the Holy Bull. Of note, he has won both of his starts at Churchill Downs, the last of which was the Street Sense all the way back in October. Has been a stalker in his races, not wanting the lead but not dropping too far back.
Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado, 30/1) was second in the Louisiana Derby at 21/1, which came after winning the Sunland Derby at Feb. 15. Before those races he had been running in all Cal-bred races, running good but not great, getting two wins in 10 career starts.
Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50/1) this one comes in from the Middle East and was second in the UAE Derby. He has won three-of-five starts and has been on or near the lead in all starts so he could be one that sets the early pace. That being said, I can’t envision him having a chance.
Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 30/1) had a solid run through the Fair Grounds preps. Winning the Lecomte then running third in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In last he was third, just a length behind winner Emerging Market and Pavlovian. Just one length and we would be having a different conversation. I have a lot of respect for the preps at the Fair Grounds, so there will be a lot of thought about adding him to my ticket if I go 5-6 deep.
Albus (Riley Mott, Manny Franco, 30/1) got here by winning the Wood Memorial at 12/1. That came from him winning a straight maiden by six lengths in his third start at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 17. In that race he sat just off the pace, took the lead halfway through and drew off. In the Wood he came from well back to take the lead at the top of the lane and slightly build on it. In the Wood he came from near the back but that was a 12-horse, not 20-horse field. My feeling here is that he will be part of the pace.
Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 30/1) is a horse I so wanted to be good since he ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on October 31. The problem – he has one win since his maiden score on August 16. That came in the Los Alamitos Futurity on December 13. He was third in the Grade II Rebel at Oaklawn as the favorite, setting the pace, then dropping back. He never fired in the Arkansas Derby, breaking sixth and finishing seventh, beaten 12 lengths. He backed into a spot in the field here. One interesting note is he puts on the blinkers, and Baffert may send him right away and try to steal the race. Remember the plan with Bodemeister for Baffert? He didn’t win the race but led until the final 150 yards – at times by multiple lengths – until getting caught by, I’ll Have Another, finishing second.
Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Hector Berrios, 50/1) after running fifth in the BC Juvenile, he came back in the Lewis and ran second on Feb. 7. That set up a spot in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6 where he ran pretty even throughout the race, finishing fourth, beaten by 10 lengths. This is another runner that backed into a spot in the field.
Great White (John Ennis, Alex Achard, 50/1) won the Battaglia at 15/1, then came to Blue Grass where he was fifth, beaten 22 lengths. Not a lot to say here as he drew into the field this week after a late scratch to Silent Tactic.
Ocelli (Whitworth Beckman, Tyler Gaffalione, 50/1) drew into the field Thursday after the scratch of Fulleffort. The horse is a maiden that was sixth in the Sam Davis, sixth in the Virginia Derby, and third in the Wood Memorial. Not a lot more needs to be said.
My plays
I play the Derby differently than any other race as with the depth of the field, it you 4-5 deep, including some of the favored horses and still get a good payoff.
I really believe you need Renegade and Commandment on your ticket, but the question is – do you put those two over a few horses, or to box them with 3-4 other horses. It’s a big difference financially to do that.
Take for example if you put the two favorites over six horses in a $1 exacta, the cost would be $10. If you boxed the same six horses, it would cost $30.
In a $1 trifecta with the 1-2, with six horses, with six horses, the cost would be $40. A six-horse box is $120.
I will go with Commandment and Renegade over Emerging Market, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee, and Golden Tempo.
Good luck and enjoy the day!