Photo credit: Churchill Downs
Before all the hoopla with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, the ladies take the stage for the running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday.
This year, the race will start later, with a post time of 5:40 p.m. PDT as good two-plus hours later than usual. It has caused some angst in the Louisville area as one of the traditions of Derby weekend is for fans to attend the Oaks, then head out on the town for dinner.
With the start time at 8:40 p.m. on the East Coast, most people would not get out of the track until 9:30 p.m.
There are 14 3-year-old fillies set to go in the 1-1/8 mile race, the 13th race on the Oaks card.
Here are the horses that interest me.
Zany (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, 4/1) is the morning line favorite and probably would have been even lower had she had not been beaten by two lengths in the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland on April 3. Her sire was American Pharoh was perfect through her first three starts, winning by six lengths, then eight lengths, then almost three. She seemed to be sitting solid when they turned for home in the Ashland but couldn’t close the distance on eventual winner Percey’s Bar, who is also entered here. She likes to sit mid-pack and make her big run in the lane. There is a lot of pace here so things may set up pretty well.
Percy’s Bar (Ben Colebrook, Luan Machado, 6/1) has to be on your list if you line Zany. Her only start this year was in the Ashland as a 5/2 choice. The resume is solid with the last three starts coming in Grade I races, winning two, the ladty of which was the Ashland, which was her first start after finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 31 at Del Mar. She has wired a field, so the speed is there but she does look to prefer coming from off the pace.
Meaning (Michael McCarthy, Juan Hernandez, 5/1) has won both starts this year, taking the Las Virgenes on Feb. 8, the Santa Anita Oaks on April 4. She likes to stay engaged in the early part, then get into contention by mid-race. She will get a good pace to run at.
Explora (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 6/1) I would like a lot more if she was buried down on the rail. She was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies as the betting favorite. Then after a two-month break, she came back and took the Santa Ynez on Jan. 10 at Santa Anita. After running second in the Las Virgenes on Feb. 8, she went to Oaklawn and won the Grade III Honeybee or March 1. She likes to be on or near the lead so that may be her saving grace out of the gate.
Bella Ballerina (Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione, 12/1) is my value play in the Oaks. She won her first three starts, including the Grade II Golden Rod and the Grade II Rachel Alexander, bringing her into the Fair Ground Oaks. She dueled throughout and ended up running second. She is going to learn from that race and Gaffalione has been up for every start ao he knows the horse. There is always a price play in the Oaks – if not two or three – so keep an eye on this one.
Counting Stars (Mark Casse, Francisco Arrieta, 8/1) is a horse I went back and forth with before including her on this list. In the end, her recent for is attractive. March 1 she was second to Explora in the Honeybee and was closing hard. March 27 she came back in the Grade II Fantasy and drew off to win by over five lengths. She will look to sit in the middle then start moving on the final turn.
Prom Queen (Brad Cox, Javier Castellano, 8/1) is a threat for two reasons – Brad Cox and Javier Castellano. In her debut on June 23 she went out fast and just dropped a bit at the end, finishing second. On Feb. 12 she came back in another straight maiden race and came from fifth early to cruise down the lane and win by over eighth. Her latest start was the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks on March 28, pressed the pace early, made a 3-wide move and by over two lengths.
Always a Runner (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 10/1) has two starts and two wins. On Feb. 6 she took a straight maiden win by over six lengths, then came back April 4 and took the Grade III Gazelle at Aqueduct. In both starts she came from near the back and ran everyone down in the lane for the wins. Now she’s back for her third start and should be at her best yet.